Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by CCIP

And Neal, no offense, but I find in far more extensive personal experience in the US that American beliefs about Russians are probably more warped and influenced by propaganda than the average Russian's. At least Russians are amply exposed to native depictions from American popular media, whereas most Americans seem to learn about Russians through their stereotypical depictions in the same American media which have little to do with any reality.

No offense taken, my friend. I just have my experiences from living in the US 35 years and then going to see Russia for myself, and finding all that I had been told in those 35 years was true. Which beliefs did you find warped? What stereotypical depictions did you encounter, from whom (what kind of Americans? Southern, Northern? City dwellers? Workers? College people? Curious here.) Are you saying Pravada was a more reliable source of factual information than the Washington Post or the Economist?

[ikalugin]

There is a difference between being reactive (in eastern Ukraine the events were shaped not by Kremlin, but by separatists and Kiev loyalists), or opportunists (Crimea) and being pro active, ie shaping the events the way you want them.

The main reason why Putin has the decrease in popularity is not because of sanctions, but because he is not pro active in this conflict.

[Oberon]

President Poroshenko has declared a ceasefire across Ukraine.

[Onkel Neal]

Let's hope it holds and all the parties can reach a resolution.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

Let's hope it holds and all the parties can reach a resolution.

Aye, fingers crossed. I'm not holding my breath, but we'll see.

[CCIP]

Sadly, I don't think this is nearly over. Unless some serious political breakthroughs are made, a summer campaign still looks very likely - the latest round of fighting was more or less jousting for good starting positions. But I'm hoping that the Ukrainian government uses the respite wisely and doesn't only focus on the military situation in the meantime.

[Skybird]

Like several former Soviet Republics and non-Soviet regions becoming states (Kosovo), the Ukraine was born at the cost of bearing a so-called frozen conflict. This one currently is not frozen anymore, and if it should not blast away for years and decades to come, if at least there should be the chance for a lasting settlement and a scenario where it does not erupt again and again, the Ukraine needs to be split in some way, and Kiev must suffer a defeat that is so clear that it cannot deny it and cannot afford to deny it.

Also, the West must understand and accept certain Russian key priorities regarding that region. Both is not liked by many, and I do not say it is just or fair. But it is the only realistic chance to get out of the spiral and not buying the end of this crisis at the cost of already starting to found the next one.

The Russians also have to understand one thing, and it is vital that the West delivers that message by according deeds and facts created on the ground: that this Russian way of handling things will not work with any of the former Soviet vasalls that now already are part of NATO.

This^ can only be had by substantially boosting force presence in the Eastern member states, and gaining the capability of defending the three Baltic states as well (which right now I consider to be impossible). We will need to let Putin get away with all this Ukraine match, and with keeping the Ukraine in the Russian sphere of influence - but we would be well advised to make this a very costly matter for Russia. There can be no business a usual after this.

The devil in this is that this will cost us a very big amount of money as well. And that in a constantly growing crisis of paper money and debts. Fundamentally boosting defence budgets, is not popular, and in principle, if talking real value-money, it is impossible, it can only be done on illusive credit, since we have no credits bolstered by savings anymore. From Austrian school's view, that is dramatic.

Last time we had such a constellation of financial and political factors, it led to brown socialists taking over, and WWII was the result.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Sadly, I don't think this is nearly over. Unless some serious political breakthroughs are made, a summer campaign still looks very likely - the latest round of fighting was more or less jousting for good starting positions. But I'm hoping that the Ukrainian government uses the respite wisely and doesn't only focus on the military situation in the meantime.

Trouble is, if they don't, others will. Whoever doesn't prepare themselves for the summer offensive will be caught off guard when summer comes.
Hopefully though it won't come to that, but you're probably right, that's if the seperatists don't ignore the cease-fire because they have the upper hand in Debaltsevo, but we'll see what the next 24 to 48 hours bring.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The devil in this is that this will cost us a very big amount of money as well. And that in a constantly growing crisis of paper money and debts. Fundamentally boosting defence budgets, is not popular, and in principle, if talking real value-money, it is impossible, it can only be done on illusive credit, since we have no credits bolstered by savings anymore. From Austrian school's view, that is dramatic.

Last time we had such a constellation of financial and political factors, it led to brown socialists taking over, and WWII was the result.

That is a problem that flickers in the back of my mind too, a lot of extra funding is going to have to go into NATO to bolster up defences that have either been let to run down since 1991, or have been altered to deal with a desert environment. We don't have that funding.
Something is going to have to give somewhere...although to be fair, Russia doesn't have that money either, and their military is in the middle of a massive overhaul which probably won't be complete until next decade, but it's still something we're going to have to look at if we're determined to go back to the Cold War again.
Unless of course America is looking to stop Cold War 2 before it starts by collapsing Russia again through economic means, again. That probably won't work as well as they hope it will, if indeed that is their plan (which I personally doubt it).

[Skybird]

Well, Russia has enough money to buy gold like crazy, and when comparing their debts to their GDP, they score hilariously better than the US, Britain or Germany. Russias debts equal around 12-15% of its GDP, For the US that value would be somewhere between 110 and 125%, for Germany around 82-85%, and Britain also somewhere between 80 and 90%.

And that is just the explicit debt burden. The implicit, hidden debts you can multiply with factors in the range of most likely 3-5, and then add the result to the explicit debts - for the Wetsern states, not Russia. Russia has less wellfare and all that costly gimmicks, so I would expect their implcit debts to be smaller than that of Wetsern states. But I never read about their implicit debt burden in detail, I must admit, only calculations for Western states.

Russias economic problems are structural, not so much financial. Many say that Russia is financially god knows how weak. while I see the balance shifting against their favour within the coming decades, I nevertheless disagree with these people's assessment. They could always start to do like we do - creating "money" from nothing, and would have much more free manouvering space to waste that way before they end up like we did. At the cost of disconnecting from global markets and isolating their economy, I admit, but that would nothing new for them. Also, the biog globalization hype seems to be over anyway, and a national contraction seems to creep in anyway, especially in the 2nd and 3rd world economies.

Not easy to see the future is, says Yoda.

[Kixa]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Well, Russia has enough money to buy gold like crazy, and when comparing their debts to their GDP, they score hilariously better than the US, Britain or Germany. Russias debts equal around 12-15% of its GDP, For the US that value would be somewhere between 110 and 125%, for Germany around 82-85%, and Britain also somewhere between 80 and 90%.

And that is just the explicit debt burden. The implicit, hidden debts you can multiply with factors in the range of most likely 3-5, and then add the result to the explicit debts - for the Wetsern states, not Russia. Russia has less wellfare and all that costly gimmicks, so I would expect their implcit debts to be smaller than that of Wetsern states. But I never read about their implicit debt burden in detail, I must admit, only calculations for Western states.

Russias economic problems are structural, not so much financial. Many say that Russia is financially god knows how weak. while I see the balance shifting against their favour within the coming decades, I nevertheless disagree with these people's assessment. They could always start to do like we do - creating "money" from nothing, and would have much more free manouvering space to waste that way before they end up like we did. At the cost of disconnecting from global markets and isolating their economy, I admit, but that would nothing new for them. Also, the biog globalization hype seems to be over anyway, and a national contraction seems to creep in anyway, especially in the 2nd and 3rd world economies.

Not easy to see the future is, says Yoda.

We are The Chance... Im pisss,, but I dont mine... Finn I m Am,

[kranz]

Russian students apologizing for russia's aggression in ukraine.


(a response to this video: )

[ikalugin]

Well from what I have heard ceasefire is more or less working so far. Lets hope that it continues to do so.

[kranz]

2 civilians died after Grad attack after the ceasefire.

[ikalugin]

Where? When? Sources?