Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

My question was whether shipping would be save if taking place inside the 12nm zone of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey.

Except for drifting mines it will be safe no Russian ship dares to enter the Territorial Sea that is considered to be part of the territory of that state and subject to its sovereignty (defined in the Territorial Sea Act 1987).

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Economy isn't exactly my strongest field.

I know how to balance my own economy.

Which country is most corrupt among these two combatant ?

There's rumour going around here in Denmark that the Danish intelligent service is monitoring those Danes who is either critical towards Ukraine and/or support Russia.

It has been some article about it-Where PET and FET said they hadn't any comment.

Markus

Russia is the most corrupt its regime after the USSR is founded on corruption.

[tonschk]

ERITREA: ISAIAS TOLD PUTIN TO LEAD THE STRATEGY AGAINST THE WEST

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Except for drifting mines it will be safe no Russian ship dares to enter the Territorial Sea that is considered to be part of the territory of that state and subject to its sovereignty (defined in the Territorial Sea Act 1987).

The other problem Russian warships have is when they transmit clear voice over marine band radio is they immediately give away their position.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

The other problem Russian warships have is when they transmit clear voice over marine band radio is they immediately give away their position.

If they care to send words first.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defen...es-in-ukraine/

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...17177497944065

Russia has likely started forming major new formations over the last two months to "add depth to its ground forces" in Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest intelligence report on Aug. 2.
However, Moscow is unlikely to find enough troops for even one new army without a fresh wave of mandatory mobilization, London believes.
The strategy to build new and self-sufficient formations, such as the 25th Combined Arms Army, is a major shift in Moscow's approach toward using its reserves, the U.K. Defense Ministry commented.

New laws just days ago have prepared the road for that needed widening of mandatory mobilzation.

In this context, my bad feelings about how the war is going, are deepening. While the Ukrainian offensive won in pace, one still is hesitent to speak of "pace", and territorial gains remain to be minor. While they try to move southwards and on Melitopol or the coast south-east of it, they do not get off their spot in reasonable time: roughly 10 km in 8 weeks does not sound encouraging regarding the change of seasons and the passing of time. Time is working against Ukraine. Its main weakness still exists: no real air defence at the front, and it exposes its mechanised units to dramatic Russian air strikes. So they must work their way in small infantry units. That works, okay, but it works slowly and does not rally own combat forces in signfiicant numers in range of the first defence line without beign seen and immediately getting under fire from artillery, drones, gunships and fixed wing CAS.

I am far from being convinced that they can break through that defence zone the Russians were given months of time by Europe to establish. I fear this offensive sooner or later gets stuck, and the front and the war get "frozen".

And that means the Europeans and likely also the Us will start to seriously press Ukraine into accepting territorial losses and agreeing to negotiations that will for the Russians acchieve right this: territorial gains.

I should not feel angry about this, but I do: I predicted this outcome already last year, before summer. I said that in the second half of 2023 the war likely will freeze and Ukraine will start feeling the pressure by the West to accept negotiations - mounting pressure on Ukraine by delivering less and lesser stuff Ukraine needs to continue the war. I mentioned the psychological tiring of the Western public. And its real. Putin knows that, and calculates with it. He is in for the long game now. We are still not. After one and a half year, we are still not.

Thats the sober outlook, the currently most likely scenario, in my view at least. Emotionally, I am anything but sober about this. I see this absolutely as a proxy war by the West, it always was, and its about turning into just another defeat, another war the West has lost ONCE AGAIN. We have become experts in loosing wars and interventions.

I want the support continuing and intensifiying. But I also have no clue where it should come from. And I doubt that it will happen. The Abrams and the Leopard-1s that are still to come, will not make a decisive difference. We should send them, yes, absolutely - but we better should not put our expectations high.


We demanded the Ukraine to give us an offensive while we did not give it what it needed: too few tanks and IFVs and artillery and espoecially too little air defence and no air power. We see what we deserve to see. Ukraine pays the price. Russia can mobilise manpower reserves with which the Ukraine cannot compete. The longer this war last, the more this will come into play. And Putin? Putin needs the war, his interest is not to end it, but to keep it running, that is what he benefits from. Peace now is something that would most likely deal him his polticla and biological death sentence.

[Skybird]

^ Speaking of the devil...



https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translat..._x_tr_pto=wapp


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There are also reports on revolts in Crimea. But it is hard to imagine where these could lead if they do not get support on the ground from the Ukrainian army. And the army is far from marching into Crimea. The revolts and cruise kmsisiles blwoign up arsenals will make life hard for the Rusians. But i cannot imagine them being thrown out by this alone - or the Russian troops themsoeves reovlting against Moscow.

[Jimbuna]

Should Trump become the next POTUS I feel it likely the aid from the USA will cease almost overnight.

[MaDef]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Should Trump become the next POTUS I feel it likely the aid from the USA will cease almost overnight.

In that case Europe would need to step up and take the lead in supplying Ukraine, something I don't think they'll do considering the lackadaisical support they've shown so far.

[Catfish]

^ indeed high time for Europe, who knows which way US politics will turn.

[Skybird]

High time yes, but whatever now should be done/delivered, needs to be prepared first - by producing it. Production needs to be prepared by opening new production lines in the factories. The US for example wants to produce instead of 25000 rounds of artillery ammo per month 90,000 rounds. They will not be able to do so until in two or three years, I red this morning. Rheinmetall has pushed up its propduction capacities, but still it takes years until new tanks get delievred that today see their order placed. Thats why Australia and Poland turned for South Korea instead, even more so since the German economy gets destroyed by the current political couse and nobody can say whether Germany i some years still can support orders that today got placed, arms deals run for 10, 20 years, later service included. Hungary (I think it was Hungary) ordered Leopard-2s in 2018 - and until today has not gotten a single tank from that order. The German Leopards given to Ukraine - will be replaced in years.

All these production plans must be started, yes: but lets be serious, they will not play a big role in this war, not next year, and not in the year after that, if the war runs that long. The truth is: Europe in no way is able to replace American weapon deliveries, its just not possible, and that the political will also does not exist is just an addon complication. And the Americans - also face limitations, their production possibilities also are not infinite. Finaly, the Wetsenr publics get tired of this war. Support for Ukraine is practically everywhere in decline, slowly, but contantly. Bitter. But true.

This war found us most unprepared, that is the simple truth. Putin calculates that Russia all in all, beside all its hurts and pains and complications, nevertheless has the longer breath to support an escalating, widening war, for the RTussian people he miust and does care much less than Western governments must care for their voters. And I do not rule out that in the end he will be shown right. Meanwhile, Europe looses its last footholds in Africa, namely the Sahel. And who is it who takes over there? Guess.


Ukraine has all reasons to be worried.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by MaDef

In that case Europe would need to step up and take the lead in supplying Ukraine, something I don't think they'll do considering the lackadaisical support they've shown so far.

Militarily, the US gives more than Europe. Financially and in civil aid, Europe gives more than the US. Problem is what is needed most, is material weapons and ammo, while Europe lived through the past decades by learning that it can simply buy itselfself out of problems with money. That works - until it works no more.


https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/28/...ared-to-the-us

[Jimbuna]