Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[XabbaRus]

These reports of transports flying into the airport with troops are unconfirmed. First it was 5 now 13. All reports coming from the Ukrainian govt. However a BBC reporter near the airport couldn't see any or hear any movement. It's not like you can hide an IL-76. Also Ukrainian forces have the same kit as Russians so who knows who is what around the airports.

On another note you can see the cracks in the opposition already. Tymoshenko has said she will run for president. So has Klitschko who commented though he has no issue with her running finds it strange and that the opposition should work together not run against each other. Naivity? Welcome to Ukrainian politics. Tymoshenko is looking for a way back in and seen her chance.

[Dan D]

Where does the „pro-fascist“ „argument“ come from („many of those who took power in the Ukraine are pro-fascist“)?

When Nazi Germany occupied the Ukraine in 1941, the German troops in the beginning at some places were welcomed als „liberators“ from Stalin's oppressive regime. This of course changed soon as people realised that the Germans had come to kill or enslave them.

Same on the Crimea: some Crimean Tatars were pro-German at the beginning, because of Stalin's oppression to them, about 15.000 to 20.000 served as Tatar Legion in the German Army, but then 20.000 Tatars also served in the Red Army.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea...2.80.931991.29

[Jimbuna]

The new pro-Moscow leader of Ukraine's autonomous Crimea region has asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for help to ensure peace.

A Kremlin source said it would "not leave unnoticed" the request from Sergiy Aksyonov.

US President Barack Obama warned Moscow against intervention after mysterious troop movements.

Something may well come of this during the weekend...I can see Putin calling Obamas bluff.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26397323

[TarJak]

Obama seem's to be raising the stakes:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-0...crimea/5292582

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by XabbaRus

These reports of transports flying into the airport with troops are unconfirmed. First it was 5 now 13. All reports coming from the Ukrainian govt. However a BBC reporter near the airport couldn't see any or hear any movement. It's not like you can hide an IL-76. Also Ukrainian forces have the same kit as Russians so who knows who is what around the airports.

On another note you can see the cracks in the opposition already. Tymoshenko has said she will run for president. So has Klitschko who commented though he has no issue with her running finds it strange and that the opposition should work together not run against each other. Naivity? Welcome to Ukrainian politics. Tymoshenko is looking for a way back in and seen her chance.

You could try putting billboards around it I guess. No, I kid, I kid, it's clear that there's going to be a lot of misinformation flying around, that's one of the reasons I'm reading both the BBCs reports and RussiaToday, to get views from both sides of the argument.

Tymoshenko... First she said she wouldn't run but the sirens call of politics seems to have overwhelmed her, no real surprise and it's clear that the opposition is a very fragmented group of political allegiances, all across the political spectrum, from the far right to more centrist, and in the vacuum that has been created by the deposing of Yanukovich, all of them are going to be vying for whatever power they can grab. Given time it'll straighten out (at least until the people get bored of the current government and overthrow that, ala Egypt) but with the situation in Crimea, time is a luxury they might not have if they make the wrong move in this very delicate chess game.


Here's my thoughts on what happened with the troop movements. The troops at the airport were likely Russian, probably Marines from Sevastopol, but those who took the parliament building in Crimea were militia. The Russian marines were likely sent on orders to see what the Ukrainian military and the rest of Europe would do if an armed incursion happened. It's possible they were also sent to recon the area prior to a possible future intervention. The corvette was sent to Balaklava to watch what the Ukrainian naval forces would do in response. Having gathered this data, Russia now can sit back and wait to see what move Kiev is going to make next, before possibly supporting Crimean independence. Really, if ever there was a time to act, it would be around now with the Ukrainian military in disarray following the sack of its head and a rather limited military response to the aforementioned probe.
I'd believe more it was possibly a Ukrainian setup (as Skybird put forward the possibility of, earlier) if the Ivanovets hadn't have chosen that time to show up outside Balaklava harbour, that was too co-incidental.

[TarJak]

Yatsenyuk says country refuses to respond with force to Russian 'provocation':

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-0...russia/5293118

Won't or can't? Passive resistance has not worked in the past against Russian aggression.

[Oberon]

More the latter than the former I'd wager, there's jack all the Ukrainian military can do if Russia moves in force, however I doubt Russia will move in force because they don't want to escalate things that quickly, they're happy to slowly turn up the heat, so that the frog in the pan doesn't realise he's being cooked until its too late.



There's scattered reports of Russian military movements, of armed men blocking the entrance to the Ukrainian military base at Sevastopol, and that the Ukrainian fleet has been ordered to put to sea, that gunmen from Kiev have attacked the Crimean interior ministry but been repelled and that other Ukrainian cities in the east are rising up in rebellion.
Lots of chaff out there to sort through, it's going to be a long weekend.

[Skybird]

Putin does not care for his prestige in the West, not one bit. Nor does he trust the West. Before he came to powers, and Yeltzin ruled, he witnessed for too long how the West cheated and betrayed Russia and broke agreements and promises as if they meant nothing. He never will trust the West again.

Any Western assumption grounding on that Putin considers how the West his perceiving what he does, personally, must lead to misled and irrelevant expectations, therefore. He will do what he can do, and not care for his prestige in the West at all.

That's why I must smile often these days when I listen to Western diplomats.

With roughly 30%, Russia still is Europe's biggest provider of gas (before Algeria, I think). A big share of transports have been relocated from transfer pipes in the Ukraine, to pipes in the Baltic.

I assume the Ukraine leaders now cry over the day when they gave away their huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons for nothing more than lip-serviced security guarantees from Russia and the West alike.

One should differ between a Russian military claim for all of Ukraine, or just the Crimean peninsula. While the first is not to be accepted, in case of the latter one has to realise the high priority interests that region has for Russia, it is of vital interest. Western politicians once again seem to expect their opponents acting stupid and self-damaging. They always seem to demand that. It seems to me that Putin has no intention to comply with that demand.

In chess, it is stupid to base one's own plan on the weakness of the opponent. Instead you calculate your plan on basis of the strongest moves you can see to be available to him. It's no cooperative game, and good will has no room in it. In the end, not even bluffing. You cannot bluff against better calculation by the other.

[Jimbuna]

Been watching the BBC and Sky news channels (hopping between them and the Leeds game) and I'm convinced the troops at the airport and government building in Crimea are indeed Russian.

Putin has been asked by the pro Moscow leader of the Crimean area for help, the Ukraine's military are in semi dissaray without coherent leadership and won't dare act so by giving Putin the excuse he previously had to act on Georgia....game all but over barr the shouting and voices of protest from the west.

Putin gets the Crimea back and possibly a substantial part of eastern Ukraine for good measure....they will of course be 'self governing' and the Russian roll will only be in acting as a protective umbrella to ensure peace and stability for the population.

[Skybird]

Putin has asked the Russian parliament for approval of deploying more Russian troops to the Crimean. There can be little doubt about the outcome of that.

Faster than the EU can shiver or Obama can cough, there will be additional massive reinforcements heading to the Crimean peninsula. The Russian momentum seems to overrun Wetsern "diplomacy". Why am I not surprised.

[Skybird]

OH, I'm late. Interfax just reported that the Russian federation council indeed has approved Putin's request. Anyway, I am quite certain that the troops are already in midair and on ships anyway.

[Alex]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-926493.html

...

http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...-take-the-lead

Originally Posted by Skybird

Why am I not surprised.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

OH, I'm late. Interfax just reported that the Russian federation council indeed has approved Putin's request. Anyway, I am quite certain that the troops are already in midair and on ships anyway.

Sadly, the question now is....will Putin once again upstage Obama and leave him looking weak in the eyes of the world?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Sadly, the question now is....will Putin once again upstage Obama and leave him looking weak in the eyes of the world?

Sure Putin will, why not? Why giving up doing that when before it has worked so well?

Neither the Europeans nor the Americans will begin a shooting war against Russia over a place that is so unimportant for the West, like the Crimean, or even the full Ukraine.

Regarding other ways of sanctioning the Russians, economically and politically, the Kreml has more than enough capacities and options to fully retaliate for any such step.

In the end, there will be much loud wording, and time passing, then a compromise will be declared and a cleaning of relations, and anything will settle down, with the Crimean having switched sides and Kiew's reputation being left in the dust. Will serve as a drastic disillusioning to Klitschko, I guess, whom I still see as relatively naive.

The Crimean is too important for the Russians, they cannot give it up, they just cannot. No use in seeing it through EU's eyes, the only realistic perspective here is by seeing it through Russian eyes.

This is a fight that is not worth enough for us to pick it up foolish-heartedly.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Sure Putin will, why not? Why giving up doing that when before it has worked so well?

Neither the Europeans nor the Americans will begin a shooting war against Russia over a place that is so unimportant for the West, like the Crimean, or even the full Ukraine.

Regarding other ways of sanctioning the Russians, economically and politically, the Kreml has more than enough capacities and options to fully retaliate for any such step.

In the end, there will be much loud wording, and time passing, then a compromise will be declared and a cleaning of relations, and anything will settle down, with the Crimean having switched sides and Kiew's reputation being left in the dust. Will serve as a drastic disillusioning to Klitschko, I guess, whom I still see as relatively naive.

The Crimean is too important for the Russians, they cannot give it up, they just cannot. No use in seeing it through EU's eyes, the only realistic perspective here is by seeing it through Russian eyes.

This is a fight that is not worth enough for us to pick it up foolish-heartedly.

TBH I agree