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04-03-20, 10:30 AM | #2311 |
Chief of the Boat
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Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something.
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04-03-20, 10:31 AM | #2312 |
Soaring
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It seems that Germany, to use a German proverb, "scratches the curve" - it may get away with a blue eye. They announced today that the exponential growth of new infections has been stopped after 12 days of shut-down. They expect numbers of new infections even dropping in the next days. The speed by which the pandemic spreads, has been halved, this week the average growth in new infections per day was 9%, in the week before it was 17%. R0 now is at 1, and they hope that it posssibly will drop below 1 in coming days, which means the pandemic would shrink.
They call this the best possible of five to be expected scenarios. But it does not mean that one can quckly ease the pressure, because as long as there is no vaccine, the pandmeic can grow and worsen again and break out with all ferocity, if one does not keep restrictive control of iot. Germany, was the first nation in Europe that started to aggressively test. Although time was wasted that it had an advanatge in due to many beds and ICUs, it seems that it nevertheless will be suffiocient. A scenario like in italy is ruled out by all 200 virologists that they have quizzed about that possibility. - In the end, the success is what counts, and it seems Germany is becoming a gold standard in how top get a grab of this beast. This buys us what is the most precious currently: time.
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert.
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04-03-20, 10:45 AM | #2313 | |
Navy Seal
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Would Steed like this in the UK?
Glad I don't live in the Philippine's 'Shoot them dead' - Philippine leader says won't tolerate lockdown violators https://www.yahoo.com/news/shoot-the...034000647.html Quote:
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pla•teau noun a relatively stable level, period, or condition a level of attainment or achievement Lord help me get to the next plateau .. |
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04-03-20, 10:52 AM | #2314 |
Navy Seal
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The 405 Freeway in LA at rush hour. You will never see it like this again.
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pla•teau noun a relatively stable level, period, or condition a level of attainment or achievement Lord help me get to the next plateau .. |
04-03-20, 11:24 AM | #2315 | |
Ocean Warrior
Join Date: Mar 2004
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Much better than trying to make one out of a whole house filter which I tinkered with, and did the bleeding to prove it. LOL
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ISRAEL: Essentially "The Alamo" 24/7, 365 since 1947 |
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04-03-20, 11:27 AM | #2316 | |
Ocean Warrior
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Well they payed half the money - half was payed by the state owned Russian direct investment fund. Meanwhile FFFP-2 valveless filtering half mask packs (5 half masks) are being sold at a price of new, full face gas mask (with filter etc). Online ofc so the possibility of fraud is very much there.
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Grumpy as always. Last edited by ikalugin; 04-03-20 at 11:37 AM. |
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04-03-20, 12:08 PM | #2317 |
Wayfaring Stranger
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Back on the 20th of March we had about 300 deaths in this country attributed to Covid. We have also been told that the death rate would double every 2.5 days. Well I am no math expert so maybe my numbers are off but i'm thinking that we should be at somewhere about 11-12k dead yet we're still about half that at 6k, well short of the seasons (preliminary) flu death toll of 24,000 to 63,000 BTW.
Date Projected (@2.5) - Actual 23 March - 750 - 233 26 March - 1875 - 1500 29 March - 4687 - 2400 01 April - 11,717 - 4600 03 April - 29,294 - 6000 05 April - 73,234 08 April - 183,086 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...ntl/index.html https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...n-be-deceiving |
04-03-20, 12:28 PM | #2318 | |
Dipped Squirrel Operative
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Quote:
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>^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. |
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04-03-20, 12:34 PM | #2319 |
Chief of the Boat
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UK government says stay at home when weather turns warm this weekend.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock calls for medical trial volunteers. US Navy ship in New York with 1,000 bed capacity has only 20 patients. New York sees highest increase in deaths in a single day. Prince Charles opens a rapidly built field hospital in London. White House is expected to advise Americans to wear masks. The Queen will address the nation in a broadcast on Sunday night. Nearly 53,000 people have died and more than 210,000 have recovered.
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Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something.
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04-03-20, 12:35 PM | #2320 |
Rear Admiral
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Those crazy numbers probably came from using a simple exponential growth formula. It was touted early on by math wizards and fear mongers to get YouTube subscribers. I believe I touched on that very thing early on saying that formula cannot used to project infectious disease growth rates. I forgot what the formula used is called but its a heck of lot more complicated.
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Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time. |
04-03-20, 12:39 PM | #2321 | |
Ocean Warrior
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Grumpy as always. |
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04-03-20, 12:48 PM | #2322 | ||
Dipped Squirrel Operative
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So apart from a lot of problems it seems that despite the usual hate on Facebook et al, the solidarity in the EU is quite exceptional, it just does not make the headlines like the incompetent "leader" idiot posers. But your picture also depicts the EU's stance on drowning refugees very well, doesn't it? The EU's court has just ruled that three of the EU's nations which did not help were acting against EU law. The usual suspects are of course Poland with Kaczinsky, Hungary with Orban and the Czech republic. Skidman wrote Quote:
The EU falling apart? It just shows a lot of solidarity - not Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic of course. But you know what? I have absolutely no problem with those countries and especially there "leaders" being thrown out of the EU ASAP, instead of letting them leave. Get the hell out, and good riddance.
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>^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. Last edited by Catfish; 04-03-20 at 12:58 PM. |
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04-03-20, 12:54 PM | #2323 |
Rear Admiral
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Exponential growth accounts for unconstrained growth (simplified math). Its the Verhulst Model I think that's used to determine more realistic growth projections. (for me mind boggling math).
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Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time. |
04-03-20, 12:58 PM | #2324 |
Wayfaring Stranger
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04-03-20, 01:03 PM | #2325 | |
Dipped Squirrel Operative
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What has this man to do with this hospital, did he actually DO something apart from posing and taking the gratitude for something others organised and did? Yes i know he is basically a good man, but there are things that are absolutely unnecessary
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>^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. |
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Tags |
apocalypse, china, coronavirus, covid-19, flu, masks, plague, preppers, virus, vitamine d, wuhan |
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