A new war has broken out: Russia (again) merged - Page 15

heartc · 08-10-08, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AntEater

While barring Sevastopol would be an affront, it wouldn't strand the russian task force:
They have Novorossisk, Tuapse, Sotchi and other Ports where they can affect repairs.

Though for some reason I'm pretty sure the Russians will want to dock at Sevastopol. And ONLY at Sevastopol. However, as I said, I think escalation there unlikely. For now.

AntEater · 08-10-08, 04:28 PM

Just had a Skype conversation:
My two friends are safe. David isnt' called up as he has no prior military service, and Nana is in Tbilisi as well.
phew....

Type941 · 08-10-08, 04:39 PM

what hartc said is probably gonna happen. Bye Bye independent Georgia, hello pussy whipped EU, NATO and USA. And gawd forbid Germany gets involved and lose all its cozy backhanded deals with Russia. Oh no. that would be really bad outcome for the germans.

you should see what the russians themselves writing about this war in commentary. It's along the lines of 'wtf are we in war for these fackin osetia people?! They come here to russia, trade, dont pay taxes, everywhere you go they are, think they are better than as and now we have to sand military to protect them? fack it, let them fight. this is crap!'. I read messages like that again and again and again... this is for the domesic market argument. I really don't think the russian people want ANOTHER war in caucases. they can only manage chechnya because they put an old enemy in charge and paid him enough to be loyal. Georgia probably hates the russians so much that they will easily be as tough to handle (there is a lot of them too).

anyway, west should protect Georgia now and stop Russia. Sadly - there is no strong leader like Kennedy or Reigan on the West who can stand up for any value West advocates. Sarkozy is nothing, Merkel is between a rock and a hard place, Brown is as useless as Blair and Bush is irrelavant while Berlusconi is a best bud of Putin. Poland is big but noone cares to listen, and has somewhat controvercial leader, and Baltics are ignored in anything they say, while Sweden and Finland don't carry much weight in EU. You are right, it's all about Germany and if Germany decides it's too much - it can really change things, but Germany is in no position what so ever to tell anything to Russia (since Russia attacked Germany in WW2 and has such difficult past noone will let it do anything militarily).

So once again, bye bye Georgia.

Ukraine can escalate this, but if they do, we in Baltics will have to escalate this in return as well and this will put NATO and EU right in there and really test it. And if EU abandons Baltics - well, you can say that the whole pillar of European security is crumbled and will never be credible again. Russia would have won.

AntEater · 08-10-08, 04:51 PM

Now Russians see how it is.
We westerners had to risk our troops for a bunch of pimps and drug dealers in Kosovo, now Russians have to fight for a bunch of pimps and drug dealers in Ossetia.
:rotfl:
Maybe Russian cities will get flooded by drugs from thankfully liberated Ossetians as Germany was from thankfully liberated Kosovarians.

Skybird · 08-10-08, 05:35 PM

It seems Russia will not let Geogia getting off the hook so easily by just saying: "Okay, we take back our last move and then start new all over." It seems they want to score on the disputed issues decisively this time. the UN debate I overwatched a bit. Unimportant blahblah. Neither the Us nor the Eu is in a position to impose pressure or dictate conditions, both need Russia more than Russia needs them in return. Moscow knows that - so what.

Could it be that the Russians really meant it serious when announcing they wan to go after the responsible ones and held them responsible personally - which only could mean they want the head of Saakachvili? If so, just announcing a Georgian cease-fire is not pleasing enough for them indeed.

Saakachvili is a known hot-head, and I think he is an overactive idiotic dumbhead as well, out of contact with reality. He made promises to win the last election that he should have known were impossible to keep. He expected Western assistance for an adventure were mere reason should have told him he wouldn't get it. It was probably him directly ordering the attack two nights ago, right oin mark with the Olympic ceremonies. It seems the Russians will not stop without substantial mission objectives acchieved. these most likely include the head of Saakachvili. Maybe the Georgians should overthrow his government, hand him over, and offer guarantees for autonomy for both regions. That could save many of their people's lives. Without substantial wins in objectives and removing some basic trouble coming from Georgia, including known key personnell, the Russians probably will not stop now. And the longer it lasts, the more it becomes a question of survival for Georgia as a national entity with a functional economic and social structure. compared to the Russian firepower in total, the Russians have not even begun to unleash all they could - if only they want.

Georgia would be very well advised not to wait for that.

Do I like what I outline? Not really, it's a whole big ammount of mess, suffering and destruction. And for what...? Just for keeping Ossetia divided region and keeping a people hating Georgians under Georgian command!? I know that the russians would not listen to me anyway, so why should I polish over the grim reality. The russians seem to be determined to not fall back anymore in the face of Western demands. If it is like that, then Georgia either falls on its knees unconditionally and begs for mercy, or will be obliterated.

The question of wether or not Georgia will ever become a NATO member we can consider to be answered. But possible that some heads in Washington need some more time until the news hits their brains.

Skybird · 08-10-08, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Type941

Ukraine can escalate this, but if they do, we in Baltics will have to escalate this in return as well and this will put NATO and EU right in there and really test it. And if EU abandons Baltics - well, you can say that the whole pillar of European security is crumbled and will never be credible again. Russia would have won.

I am not aware of the Baltics having the military or otherwise capacity to "escalate". anyway, this will not turn into a hot shooting war between NATO and Russian soldiers - if that is what you are waiting for, then your life has found a new mission. europe and america have better things to do than to defcon-one with the Russians over some Russian backyard. Maybe it hurts your ego if I put it that frankly and minimize Georgia's or the Baltic's importance. But the simple fact is that I speak the truth. Georgia has much more importance for Russia, than it has for the West. and Brussel will whistle back any attempt by the Baltic states to "escalate" on behalf of NATO.

Raptor1 · 08-10-08, 05:53 PM

World War I started over this sort of minor conflict, but yeah, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to escalate this

Happy Times · 08-10-08, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Quote:

Originally Posted by Type941

Ukraine can escalate this, but if they do, we in Baltics will have to escalate this in return as well and this will put NATO and EU right in there and really test it. And if EU abandons Baltics - well, you can say that the whole pillar of European security is crumbled and will never be credible again. Russia would have won.

I am not aware of the Baltics having the military or otherwise capacity to "escalate". anyway, this will not turn into a hot shooting war between NATO and Russian soldiers - if that is what you are waiting for, then your life has found a new mission. europe and america have better things to do than to defcon-one with the Russians over some Russian backyard. Maybe it hurts your ego if I put it that frankly and minimize Georgia's or the Baltic's importance. But the simple fact is that I speak the truth. Georgia has much more importance for Russia, than it has for the West. and Brussel will whistle back any attempt by the Baltic states to "escalate" on behalf of NATO.

If our countries are worthless we should really start building a nuclear deterrent.

Jimbuna · 08-10-08, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raptor1

World War I started over this sort of minor conflict, but yeah, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to escalate this

Let us all hope and pray this is the case

Happy Times · 08-10-08, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raptor1

World War I started over this sort of minor conflict, but yeah, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to escalate this

It isnt a minor conflict for Georgia.

AntEater · 08-10-08, 06:01 PM

Funny is that the Town of Gori, scene of the russian bombing attack on Saturday and now apparently under russian artillery fire is the birthplace of no one else but Joseph Djugazvili, better known as Joseph Stalin.
And it still sports a huge stalin memorial on the town square.

:rotfl:

Raptor1 · 08-10-08, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Times

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raptor1

World War I started over this sort of minor conflict, but yeah, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to escalate this

It isnt a minor conflict for Georgia.

I bet it wasn't a minor conflict for Serbia in 1914 either

Skybird · 08-10-08, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Times

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Quote:

Originally Posted by Type941

Ukraine can escalate this, but if they do, we in Baltics will have to escalate this in return as well and this will put NATO and EU right in there and really test it. And if EU abandons Baltics - well, you can say that the whole pillar of European security is crumbled and will never be credible again. Russia would have won.

I am not aware of the Baltics having the military or otherwise capacity to "escalate". anyway, this will not turn into a hot shooting war between NATO and Russian soldiers - if that is what you are waiting for, then your life has found a new mission. europe and america have better things to do than to defcon-one with the Russians over some Russian backyard. Maybe it hurts your ego if I put it that frankly and minimize Georgia's or the Baltic's importance. But the simple fact is that I speak the truth. Georgia has much more importance for Russia, than it has for the West. and Brussel will whistle back any attempt by the Baltic states to "escalate" on behalf of NATO.

If our countries are worthless we should really start building a nuclear deterrent.

"Our countries"? First it was about Georgia. then somebody brought in the Baltics. you since long have added Finland. And I am left wondering why this is so. this is some head-bashing in some Russian backyard, more it is not, by all reason. It is not World War III. You need a nuclear deterrant? what do you have over there that anyone wants so desperately...?

Man , your irrationaL hate on everything russian really kicks you head-first into a black dark tunnel. Get out there, or you spend your life like Diogenes in his barrel. See, I am not full of sympathy for Russia. It'S just that I look beyond the perspective of the West, and that I can see america's special interests, europe'S special interests - and Russia's interests as well. Most of these interest have nothing to do with the immediate interests of Georgia. that may not be fair from a historical point of view, but that'S how it is and earth will not stop spinning because Georgia is what it is. in the end, nobody in this story has clean hands. not the Russians. Not the Ossetians.not the Georgians. and not NATO and the Americans as well. We allowed Georgia to believe they could afford their provocations. we allowed them to believe they were more improtant to us than they are. We encouraged false assumptions of theirs. We shouldn't have done that. If you still ask why we should not try to bring the Caucasian region or the Ukraine into NATO, just imagine how the US would react if Russia would bring Canada under russian influence and into military alliance with Russia. No chance the US would accept that. They would run amok, if needed.

Skybird · 08-10-08, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Times

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raptor1

World War I started over this sort of minor conflict, but yeah, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to escalate this

It isnt a minor conflict for Georgia.

see where their attempt to escalate but evade the penalty has led them.

With cards like theirs, you do not play the bully of the block and try to provo0ke a superior bigger neighbour - you play your hand cautiously and friendly. That is wise. even KungTse and LaoTse said so.

1480 · 08-10-08, 06:49 PM

Skybird: hang on a second! Making a blanket statement that it was the West's fault for Georgia putting itself in the position that it is, is ludicris. Can you back this up by factual evidence? Supposition does not make a court case.

You try to support the russian's actions because of a nonexistant threat to their national security theory. Even better, broadly proclaiming what the US would do if Canada became a ally with russia. Did you forget about Cuba? 330 miles or 612 km's away..... which is a lot closer threat then Russia is to Germany.

08-10-08, 04:28 PM	#212
AntEater Grey Wolf Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Germany Posts: 936 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Just had a Skype conversation: My two friends are safe. David isnt' called up as he has no prior military service, and Nana is in Tbilisi as well. phew.... __________________

08-10-08, 04:39 PM	#213
Type941 Ace of the Deep Join Date: May 2005 Location: U-52 Posts: 1,270 Downloads: 2 Uploads: 0	what hartc said is probably gonna happen. Bye Bye independent Georgia, hello pussy whipped EU, NATO and USA. And gawd forbid Germany gets involved and lose all its cozy backhanded deals with Russia. Oh no. that would be really bad outcome for the germans. you should see what the russians themselves writing about this war in commentary. It's along the lines of 'wtf are we in war for these fackin osetia people?! They come here to russia, trade, dont pay taxes, everywhere you go they are, think they are better than as and now we have to sand military to protect them? fack it, let them fight. this is crap!'. I read messages like that again and again and again... this is for the domesic market argument. I really don't think the russian people want ANOTHER war in caucases. they can only manage chechnya because they put an old enemy in charge and paid him enough to be loyal. Georgia probably hates the russians so much that they will easily be as tough to handle (there is a lot of them too). anyway, west should protect Georgia now and stop Russia. Sadly - there is no strong leader like Kennedy or Reigan on the West who can stand up for any value West advocates. Sarkozy is nothing, Merkel is between a rock and a hard place, Brown is as useless as Blair and Bush is irrelavant while Berlusconi is a best bud of Putin. Poland is big but noone cares to listen, and has somewhat controvercial leader, and Baltics are ignored in anything they say, while Sweden and Finland don't carry much weight in EU. You are right, it's all about Germany and if Germany decides it's too much - it can really change things, but Germany is in no position what so ever to tell anything to Russia (since Russia attacked Germany in WW2 and has such difficult past noone will let it do anything militarily). So once again, bye bye Georgia. Ukraine can escalate this, but if they do, we in Baltics will have to escalate this in return as well and this will put NATO and EU right in there and really test it. And if EU abandons Baltics - well, you can say that the whole pillar of European security is crumbled and will never be credible again. Russia would have won. __________________ Sink the Bismarck SH3 Movie

08-10-08, 04:51 PM	#214
AntEater Grey Wolf Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Germany Posts: 936 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Now Russians see how it is. We westerners had to risk our troops for a bunch of pimps and drug dealers in Kosovo, now Russians have to fight for a bunch of pimps and drug dealers in Ossetia. :rotfl: Maybe Russian cities will get flooded by drugs from thankfully liberated Ossetians as Germany was from thankfully liberated Kosovarians. __________________

08-10-08, 05:35 PM	#215
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,764 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	It seems Russia will not let Geogia getting off the hook so easily by just saying: "Okay, we take back our last move and then start new all over." It seems they want to score on the disputed issues decisively this time. the UN debate I overwatched a bit. Unimportant blahblah. Neither the Us nor the Eu is in a position to impose pressure or dictate conditions, both need Russia more than Russia needs them in return. Moscow knows that - so what. Could it be that the Russians really meant it serious when announcing they wan to go after the responsible ones and held them responsible personally - which only could mean they want the head of Saakachvili? If so, just announcing a Georgian cease-fire is not pleasing enough for them indeed. Saakachvili is a known hot-head, and I think he is an overactive idiotic dumbhead as well, out of contact with reality. He made promises to win the last election that he should have known were impossible to keep. He expected Western assistance for an adventure were mere reason should have told him he wouldn't get it. It was probably him directly ordering the attack two nights ago, right oin mark with the Olympic ceremonies. It seems the Russians will not stop without substantial mission objectives acchieved. these most likely include the head of Saakachvili. Maybe the Georgians should overthrow his government, hand him over, and offer guarantees for autonomy for both regions. That could save many of their people's lives. Without substantial wins in objectives and removing some basic trouble coming from Georgia, including known key personnell, the Russians probably will not stop now. And the longer it lasts, the more it becomes a question of survival for Georgia as a national entity with a functional economic and social structure. compared to the Russian firepower in total, the Russians have not even begun to unleash all they could - if only they want. Georgia would be very well advised not to wait for that. Do I like what I outline? Not really, it's a whole big ammount of mess, suffering and destruction. And for what...? Just for keeping Ossetia divided region and keeping a people hating Georgians under Georgian command!? I know that the russians would not listen to me anyway, so why should I polish over the grim reality. The russians seem to be determined to not fall back anymore in the face of Western demands. If it is like that, then Georgia either falls on its knees unconditionally and begs for mercy, or will be obliterated. The question of wether or not Georgia will ever become a NATO member we can consider to be answered. But possible that some heads in Washington need some more time until the news hits their brains. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-10-08, 05:53 PM	#217
Raptor1 Navy Seal Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Stavka Posts: 8,211 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	World War I started over this sort of minor conflict, but yeah, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to escalate this __________________ Current Eastern Front status: Probable Victory

08-10-08, 06:01 PM	#221
AntEater Grey Wolf Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Germany Posts: 936 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Funny is that the Town of Gori, scene of the russian bombing attack on Saturday and now apparently under russian artillery fire is the birthplace of no one else but Joseph Djugazvili, better known as Joseph Stalin. And it still sports a huge stalin memorial on the town square. :rotfl: __________________

08-10-08, 06:49 PM	#225
1480 Lead Slinger Join Date: May 2007 Location: Chitcago, Illinoise Posts: 1,442 Downloads: 74 Uploads: 0	Skybird: hang on a second! Making a blanket statement that it was the West's fault for Georgia putting itself in the position that it is, is ludicris. Can you back this up by factual evidence? Supposition does not make a court case. You try to support the russian's actions because of a nonexistant threat to their national security theory. Even better, broadly proclaiming what the US would do if Canada became a ally with russia. Did you forget about Cuba? 330 miles or 612 km's away..... which is a lot closer threat then Russia is to Germany. __________________