South Korean ship fires on a ship

[Dowly]

Ah, right.

[Skybird]

http://www.koreaherald.com/national/...20100519000628

A torpedo that attacked a South Korean warship in March is very likely to have been manufactured in China, a high-ranking government official said on Wednesday.
(...)
Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said that he was “certain” that Pyongyang was responsible for the Cheonan incident. His remarks came during a luncheon meeting with members of the European Chamber of Commerce here.

Another high-ranking government official said that the investigation team’s conclusion is that “the Cheonan sank after a North Korean torpedo attack, and this will be clearly stated in the investigation report.”

http://www.koreaherald.com/national/...20100519000629

“And when there’s an announcement, we will work with South Korea and other countries in the region on the next steps regarding what happens in light of that investigation.”

He added that the allies would consider referring the issue to the U.N. Security Council.

That's frightening.

[Jimbuna]

You don't say

[Zachstar]

So its likely to be war then. Ok I guess now is a good time for the UN to act rather than later. The power in NK is desperate and they are getting more so every year.

[Castout]

Sad thing is the people of North Korea would suffer much in the event of war.

Their soldiers too. Heck everybody in North Korea is suffering under the regime except the high ranking elites.

But the South can't afford to act soft upon North Korea any longer even if it meant risking war with North Korea.

Sanction upon North Korea is more likely for South Korea to choose from than an invasion or military retaliation.

When that done the ball would move to North Korea as to how they would react to the imposed sanction and being a bully state they would likely respond militarily perhaps to provoke a war with the South. They may launch their short-mid range mobile based ballistic missiles to South as an act of provocation that's to be used to rally their people's support and China in the event of South Korea retaliation as an excuse that South Korea meant to invade the North and from then on it's anybody's guess.

[geetrue]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J0KA20100520?type=politicsNews

The U.S. government echoed Seoul's assertion that an international investigation had yielded proof that a North Korean submarine fired the torpedo that hit the South Korean ship in March, killing 46 sailors.

"It points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that North Korea was responsible for this attack," the White House said.

"This act of aggression is one more instance of North Korea's unacceptable behavior and defiance of international law," it said. "This attack constitutes a challenge to international peace and security and is a violation of the Armistice Agreement."

They even have the serial number of the torpedo ... whoever heard of a war like this?

[Skybird]

War coming up? No, will not happen, SK will not launch a fullscale attack on the North. Sanctions, sabre-rattling, symbolic mutual sea manouvers with the US Navy - the usual show.

Two theories I can imagine why the North staged the attck. First, and the one with the lower probability, they tracked the SK vessels from a sub, practiced some exercises during the opportunity, and then had a malfunction or a seaman making a mistake. Second, the theory with the higher probability, the North wanted to blackmail the South by reminding them how dangerous and unscrupulous the North is - and how worse it could become if they do not get more desperately needed economic aid, corn, etc.

A calculation that hopefully is not allowed to work.

If I were them, I would identify the one harbour were that sub must have come from, and then launch a strike against that facility, turning much of it into rubble - especially any present submarines. A shot with 5-20 Tomahawks, or an equivalent stealth bomber raid to avoid triggering too many military defence automatisms in the region - something in that range.

A shot with 5-20 Tomahawks, or an equivalent stealth bomber raid to avoid triggering too many military defence automatisms in the region - something in that range.

An interesting view.
So as Koreas cruise missiles are not yet ready that means an American attack which would be in keeping with the Mutual Defense Treaty.
But it raises the problem of N. Koreas own version of the mutual defense treaty it has with China.
So Sky was probably entirely right with his "- the usual show." line.

[Castout]

What is obvious is US reluctance to show a stronger face towards North Korea in the expectation it would be willing to come to terms with its nuclear pursuit on the diplomatic table.

Not to mention US economy is reeling under heavy burden added by prolong military engagement and occupation in Afghanistan and Iraq. It's clear that US govt doesn't want to see the possibility of another war.

This is the probable reason why South Korea seemed to hold back in the beginning of the incident of Cheonan sinking.

Unfortunately this brings a bad light unto United States because the reason put forward to invade Iraq was that it was suspected to have in its possession WMDs while never publicly known to have ever tested a nuclear weapon. On the other hand North Korea has had several nuclear weapon tests. By now of course everybody knows whether they like to admit it or not that WMD was not the reason why Iraq was attacked though being a realist I could understand why.

[baggygreen]

nothing will come of it, not even a small south K strike - they have too much to lose.

Noone in the west has the stomach for the type of warfare that NK would unleash, and NK knows that. 10,000 artillery pieces within range of seoul says a helluva lot of casualties. Then there is the small nuclear issue...

My concern is perhaps well well out to left field, but what if it was a deliberate move to pressure the US to shift forces there? Initially you'd think "why" but if NK and iran are in kahoots, which when you think about it isn't as far-fetched as you might think, then we're looking at a whole other ball game.

Suppose it was a deliberate move to escalate things, and so split the US forces - after all, the Pacific fleet covers the Indian ocean and persian gulf...

[Jimbuna]

Before anything tangible happens, if in fact it does....America will probably come to some agreement or understanding with China.

NK, Iran et al are bit part players....either country could be taken to task at a level of Americas time and choosing.

China are key to the above, both militarily and probably even financially.

[baggygreen]

What i don't understand, is the terminology being used in interviews on radio etc. "a terrible misunderstanding", "a breach of standard international rules"....


Deliberately torpedoing a ship of another nation isn't breaking the rules needing a slap on the wrist, it is an act of war! why the beating about the bush with the terminology?

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by baggygreen

Noone in the west has the stomach for the type of warfare that NK would unleash, and NK knows that. 10,000 artillery pieces within range of seoul says a helluva lot of casualties.

Not true.

Look at a post I made earlier in this thread with a link:

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/show...&postcount=144

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by baggygreen

What i don't understand, is the terminology being used in interviews on radio etc. "a terrible misunderstanding", "a breach of standard international rules"....


Deliberately torpedoing a ship of another nation isn't breaking the rules needing a slap on the wrist, it is an act of war! why the beating about the bush with the terminology?

Because no one in SK and the US wants another war.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by baggygreen

What i don't understand, is the terminology being used in interviews on radio etc. "a terrible misunderstanding", "a breach of standard international rules"....


Deliberately torpedoing a ship of another nation isn't breaking the rules needing a slap on the wrist, it is an act of war! why the beating about the bush with the terminology?

Originally Posted by Schroeder

Because no one in SK and the US wants another war.

Nor will anyone want to be seen losing face on the matter.