2009 Subsim Werewolf Hunt Ticker: Unhappy Hour at Mercy's Inn

[JCWolf]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

Here are, according to my notes, the Night Actions:
http://www.subsim.com/1_12werewolves.htm

As you can see, things were going well for the forces of evil, until they lynched Aramike, and then Nisgeis took out two of his own werewolves

Sorry Neal S, I was almost sure it was Hitman who attacked me and
my Buddy over the Barracks..... and now I see I wasn't attacked by anyone ?????


Never the less I was killed...

By who then ????

[Penelope_Grey]

Interesting isn't it?

Pinguin... I believe I am owed an apology!!

Bragging mode on:
Were it not for me. The humans would have lost.

I guessed EVERY single wolf in the game! How cool is that?

FIREWALL - I was right!
Task Force - correct
Hitman - correct
Nisgeis - correct
Aramike - correct

I rule!!

[Fincuan]

Ah, the bloody awful truth

At the time of my death my list was like this:
Hellhound - Penelope
Werewolf - Aramike
Werewolf - FIREWALL
Werewolf - Task Force

Looks like we would have take down an innocent and one werewolf would be on the large should things have gone my way. Luckily for Penelope a werewolf came in and saved the day(or night), event though it was a different werewolf than I'd have thought. I was certain it was either Task Force or FIREWALL that killed me.

This part, where you get to see who everyone was and then compare that to their actions in the game, is almost as interesting as the game itself. Thanks to Neal for setting up and administrating the game, must have been quite a task.

[JCWolf]

Ok ,


This was my guide lines and plans...


At the begining My first thoughts whent to the U-Boat
Since the all story started to grow and the WW apeared
when the U-13 touched the refuel base....

So I traced a plan, or a road, I was a Guardian, and had no way
Of knowing who to Protect, So I whent to the most Obviouse
protection , The U-Boat Kpt. for the reazon that I needed to trace
a plan and know exactely who he was and to locate a Seer that was
my main protection target, in the first night I saw my plan
was geting no were, so in order to advance and be able to locate
a Seer I had to risk a litlle and call out their atention on me, knowind that
by Telling a story of past WW in my Childhood and life I would be
free of 2 things for a cople of nights, Werewolf attacks cause they would
think I was one of them, and a target for a Seer that would ask Neal
who I was and when knew that I was a Guardian could PM me and
this way I could provide a important game link ( Seer) protection against
future WW attacks preserving this way what I thought it was our best
weapon (Seers) against the WW...


I took the risk of Taking this as far as I could untill Jimbuna PM'd me
asking directly if I was a WW, I decided not to tell him for sure
cause I was not certain of is Ident. but that was a doubt that came out,


Who was I protecting then ?

Cause as a Seer he wouldn't had made that question via PM to me ?

So if he was not a Seer who was he? Human or WW ?

With this I changed my protection target and left the poor U 13 Kpt to his
own fait and decided to protect UnderseaLcpl, The reazon now was diferent,

I saw that he was taking some wierd decision at the first glance and I decided
to move my Guardian's dagger near him for 2 reazons, he was around Lettum that I knew for sure ( Acourding WW Myths) that since he was attacked and survived he had to be a WW, and to search on the shadows for clues on UnderseaLcpl ID...

Again if my Plan was in fact followed by a Seer and we had made contact we could have changed the story course, by taking our targets toghether...

But then nobody payed attention to what I was saying anyway...but to ther
Own plans and game style... so I died...

[Nisgeis]

Originally Posted by JCWolf

Never the less I was killed...

By who then ????

That's weird, as you could only have been killed by the hell hound, but Neal's spreadsheet shows that Aramilke attacked UnderseaLcpl that night. Given that A Very Super Market got seer information when he shouldn't have, I think it's possibly an 'accounting error' somewhere along the line. Aramike, did you attack JCWolf on night 3?

[Raptor1]

TF was my first suspect, followed by Oberon...guess I got the first one right

Also TF completely screwed up the boat's engines, I think Herr Kaleun should think twice before appointing an unqualified warewolf to fix such equipment...

[Nisgeis]

Originally Posted by Penelope_Grey

Interesting isn't it?

Pinguin... I believe I am owed an apology!!

Bragging mode on:
Were it not for me. The humans would have lost.

I guessed EVERY single wolf in the game! How cool is that?

FIREWALL - I was right!
Task Force - correct
Hitman - correct
Nisgeis - correct
Aramike - correct

I rule!!

I think you owe Pinguin an apology also. You accused almost everyone, so you were bound to be right. You were also wrong a lot .

You really were acting like a werewolf though, I especially liked the posts where you'd sit down lamented accusing someone who was innocent, then said how you'd never make another allegation again, and then pointed the finger at about three other people, all in the same post. I loved that.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Penelope_Grey

Interesting isn't it?

Pinguin... I believe I am owed an apology!!

Bragging mode on:
Were it not for me. The humans would have lost.

I guessed EVERY single wolf in the game! How cool is that?

FIREWALL - I was right!
Task Force - correct
Hitman - correct
Nisgeis - correct
Aramike - correct

I rule!!

Now now.....hindsight is a wonderful thing....but with all of the *cough* information you gathered, it could easily be argued the dice were loaded once the numbers were down to 6 or 7.

You would do well working for some gang specialising in blackmail

I perceive a large target being pinned to your back in any future game

Who was it that 'lost it' near the end? Bowels were evacuated and toys were thrown way outside of the pram :rotfl:

I was going to quote your post for posterity but thought better and decided you needed a chill pill instead

I think if I'd ever been called to a bank raid and you were my shift partner it would be safer upon arrival at the scene if I directed you to look after the patrol vehicle

Joking aside: Great game Neal, many thanks for the participation invite. It was a truly invigorating experience.

I thought EVERYONE did themselves credit and interracted very well with one another and was truly astonished at how much tension was generated nearer the end.

One question though: Who were the two Guardians that protected me that first night?

P.S. Don't anyone go partaking in the nibbles on Penelopes bar counter

[Penelope_Grey]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

Now now.....hindsight is a wonderful thing....but with all of the *cough* information you gathered, it could easily be argued the dice were loaded once the numbers were down to 6 or 7.

You would do well working for some gang specialising in blackmail

I perceive a large target being pinned to your back in any future game

Who was it that 'lost it' near the end? Bowels were evacuated and toys were thrown way outside of the pram :rotfl:

I was going to quote your post for posterity but thought better and decided you needed a chill pill instead

I think if I'd ever been called to a bank raid and you were my shift partner it would be safer upon arrival at the scene if I directed you to look after the patrol vehicle

Joking aside: Great game Neal, many thanks for the participation invite. It was a truly invigorating experience.

I thought EVERYONE did themselves credit and interracted very well with one another and was truly astonished at how much tension was generated nearer the end.

One question though: Who were the two Guardians that protected me that first night?

P.S. Don't anyone go partaking in the nibbles on Penelopes bar counter

LOL @ the dice were loaded. And it would be grossly unfair to pin a target on me for a future game simply because of this one. Fresh start, clean slate and all that.

I lost it in the end, because I was so sure that Nisgeis was the wolf and nobody was paying any attention, Pinguin kept voting to have me shot... I could see the winners podium and I wanted to stand on it. lol After a day and a half stalemate when I had the answer, I was just wanting it to be over so team human could win.

And thanks for not quoting it. LOL Though, it was really funny that hissy fit! Tee hee.

LOL me look after the patrol vehicle? No way, gimme a gun and send me in!

Actually, later on, I will write up my so called... "plan"... and I will share it in the thread here. If in the next game I am on the bad side, it might help the humans who knows.

I was wrong a lot, but I was also right a lot more than anybody else. ha ha!

You can't argue with my record in this game, come on.... I got FIREWALL right at the start! I figured out Letum was innocent. Once I began cooperating with Oberon I sussed Hitman, then Aramike, and you Nisgeis.

FWIW... Nisgeis I tried several methods to eliminate you as a suspect. When you gave into my blackmail and voted to lynch Aramike who you must have known was a wolf, you called my bluff and that threw me somewhat, well done, so then I decided to alter my approach and lean on Pinguin heavy in the hope you would let your guard down. But you didn't really... you refused to vote for him. Which pretty much clued me in as you were the wolf. But I wasn't certain... so had to backtrack then and try to make up the missing ground with Pinguin.

[JCWolf]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

Now now.....hindsight is a wonderful thing....but with all of the *cough* information you gathered, it could easily be argued the dice were loaded once the numbers were down to 6 or 7.

You would do well working for some gang specialising in blackmail

I perceive a large target being pinned to your back in any future game

Who was it that 'lost it' near the end? Bowels were evacuated and toys were thrown way outside of the pram :rotfl:

I was going to quote your post for posterity but thought better and decided you needed a chill pill instead

I think if I'd ever been called to a bank raid and you were my shift partner it would be safer upon arrival at the scene if I directed you to look after the patrol vehicle

Joking aside: Great game Neal, many thanks for the participation invite. It was a truly invigorating experience.

I thought EVERYONE did themselves credit and interracted very well with one another and was truly astonished at how much tension was generated nearer the end.

One question though: Who were the two Guardians that protected me that first night?

P.S. Don't anyone go partaking in the nibbles on Penelopes bar counter

I protected you the first 2 nights...

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by JCWolf

I protected you the first 2 nights...

Cheers mate

I wonder who the other one was?

[Nisgeis]

First, sorry to Raptor1, I did feel a bit guilty for killing you! If anyone doesn’t want to read an essay, stop now!

This was a great game, being the fox among the hounds, I got a bit of a heart in throat at a few points. From my point of view, I decided to lay low and accuse one person who I thought was a werewolf, for a later banker. PG was accusing everyone left right and centre, so I chose her as the most likely to be a werewolf.

I had a plan to look at the voting and to attack anyone who was the first to successfully vote to lynch a werewolf, but the game went on for too long, without any wolves being lynched for that to work.

As for Task Force and Firewall, I’d looked at their voting and had determined that they were not voting with the crowd, but voting independently, so I assumed that one or both of them was a seer. Firewall had also publicly posted that he ‘knew’ that Jimbuna was a werewolf and at the time, I thought Jimbuna was a seer, so I put that in the confusion box for later. I had Jimbuna pegged for a potential seer, as he was not voting with the crowd, but was voting consistently for Letum and the way Letum was acting so over the top as a werewolf, I thought that must be a double bluff. By the third night though, it appeared that he wasn’t a seer at all, as Letum was innocent, so I left him alone as he may have been a wolf. With that assumption, it seemed likely that Firewall’s seerlike prediction (which, by the way no one questioned him about) could be accurate, so I attacked him after TF. What I thought was that the werewolves would try to blend in, by voting with the mob and that the seers would be the only ones to vote independently. It didn’t seem like much of an effort to see which way a vote was going and then vote that way. After about 30% of the votes had been cast it was safe to tag along and vote without tipping the balance of the vote. As a werewolf, you wouldn’t unduly influence the vote and you couldn’t be accused of not voting for any werewolves caught. I figured the seers would stand out, as they had knowledge, where as the wolves would try to blend in, so with that I attacked two wolves, who were standing out.

What I couldn’t fathom though is some of the really bizarre stuff that people were putting. Making wild accusations, when they couldn’t possibly know anything, also a number of people acted like they were werewolves. With the exception of Letum, who I had no idea what was going on there, I assumed they were doing this to avoid a werewolf attack, so I did not attack anyone that was acting that way. They were far too valuable alive, as they would no doubt draw attention to themselves. I think the other werewolves figured this as well, as no one attacked them. It seemed a bit pointless to do the mob’s work for them. Then sometime on the third or fourth night, I worked out that there had been a lot of missed werewolf attacks, or there had been an extra wolf added. That confused me, especially with the Lesrae thing. There only seemed to be enough attacks for three wolves. I assumed (and wrote in my journal) that as the two bodies of Laufen zum Ziel and Fincuan had been found together this was a dead giveaway that one of them was a guardian and they had been attacked by a hellhound. I of course wrote that it was the heroic crew member of the U-13 Fincuan who was the Guardian.

When Hitman PM’d me, claiming to have information from a ‘contact’ I wondered if that meant he was a seer or werewolf or did in fact have a contact. He said he had information that Penelope Grey was indeed a werewolf, which I already suspected, with her fantastically deranged role playing. I pretended to him that I had a contact that had supplied PG’s name. Something about the way that he spoke didn’t ring true, so I suspected that he was a werewolf and was considering revealing my wolfishness to him. Then though, he threw me completely by giving his vote to someone else that night. I didn’t know what to make of that, so left him alone. The next night, when he was being targeted for a lynching, he PM’d me to say that he didn’t mind being out of the game, as he was going to suicide anyway, as he was going to be busy that day and night. He then posted about cleaning his gun and looking at it strangely, like he was going to off himself. This made me think that he wasn’t a werewolf, so I didn’t reveal anything to him. I also didn’t try to save him from the lynch, as he was being apathetic. That was a shame, as I lost info on who he had attacked and therefore who possibly was a guardian. I could have PMd him after he was lynched, but I consider that that would have been cheating. I took the stance than dead men tell no tales.

Taking a look at the werewolf voting, of the total attacks possible by the werewolves and hellhound combined, there were a total of 18 attack opportunities (13 for the werewolves and 5 for the hellhound). Of those 18, only 12 attacks were made, with a huge SIX attacks missed or passed on. That’s a third of all the attacks. That works out that effectively, there were 3.3 werewolves playing the game on average. This is too low to take on 26 or so people. Three is the number I had figured on, based on the attacks of previous nights, so I was assuming that there were three guardians and three seers as well, with the rest humans. I incorrectly assumed that I was the last werewolf, when Aramike was still alive, so paid no special attention to trying to identify werewolves, so I would not attack them.

When Oberon was attacked, I was surprised, as I thought I was alone. From this second attack, I was convinced that the hellhound was dead, as the best course of action for the hellhound was to attack either of the two named guardians, AVSM or Mookiemookie as with them two alive, the end game was going to be very difficult. As neither of them died, I assumed that the other werewolf was not a hellhound. I didn’t know if it was a new werewolf or not. The lack of kill opportunities taken up by the wolves screwed my calculations on that. I don’t know if the altered rules for guardian protecting guardian had been applied the first attack, and I don’t know if Aramike did either, but maybe that swayed his decision, or it was a political decision. Guardians were given more protective power than originally had been stated. In the original rules, there is no reason ever for two guardians to provide mutual protection, as that’s a guarantee of them both being killed. For some reason Mookie and AVSM decided to do just that, but I can’t fathom why. That’s just a recipe (under the original rules) for a double killing by a hellhound. That was the one rule change that tripped me up, as it hadn’t been posted that it had changed, I was still operating under wrong assumptions. There was a statement that some rules would change next time, so I had no reason to think that rules for the current game had changed.

Some of the narrative I found so misleading previously that I had to ignore most of it, along with everything people had posted they had done. Everyone was posting they’d done this test and that test and this proved they weren’t that or whatever. As it was just what people were writing themselves, it meant nothing at all. I didn’t know that people were actually being given clues and some of the ‘tests’ were real, effectively increasing the number of seers, after the real seers were dead! I was working under the assumption that two of the seers had been killed early and there was only one left. I just saw Oberon as a distraction to what was actually going on and that if he was a real seer, he would not post about his tests (which was both right as he wasn’t a seer, but wrong, as he was seerlike) and he wouldn’t be so quick to vote wrongly. Had I known his tests were actually being acted on, I may have chosen differently and removed another seer. I saw Oberon’s ‘tests’ as a harmless distraction and not something that would give him information.

Main factors attributing to werewolf failure

This isn’t a whinge, it’s just an analysis as next time I may well be a seer, or a Guardian, so I’m not trying to say the game should be balanced in one way. I think we shouldn't change any rules and see what happens next time. :

Me killing two other wolves.

I was under the impression, the same as Hitman was, that werewolves could not kill other werewolves, as it was stated that the only way to kill one was to lynch one. I wasn’t being too careful about whether I was wrong in attacking a wolf, as I didn’t know it would have such a dire consequence. Still, I killed the most werewolves, either by vote or by throat J So I should get a prize J.

Wolves only attack two thirds of the time. This was a major dent in our chances.

Extension of the lynch vote. If that had not been extended beyond the agreed deadline, PG would have been lynched and the power of the shorebased three would have been diminished. Curses! Werewolves missed attacks, so humans should miss votes, to be balanced.

Firewall was not revealed as being a werewolf. Having three wolves revealed in one boat would have put more suspicion on the land.

The rule change to do with what happened when a hellhound killed a human who was protected by a guardian. That made me think that A very super market was not a guardian, as that’s what the rules said. As AVSM knew he was a Guardian, he must have known that the rules to do with hell hound attacks had changed and was then able to apply that to getting the two named guardians to protect each other. IMHO the rules should stand, as random events that favour either side at the start will be balanced out by random things at the end, so the best thing is to just let things flow. Attempts to manually balance a game in progress can sometimes cause an imbalance later down the line.

Neal naming as fact who two of the guardians were. With the new rule about guardians protecting each other, at this point all the humans had to do, was to not lynch the two guardians and they’d win by attrition. The guardians could protect each other against any hellhounds and they were basically immune and couldn’t lose. Even if they didn’t know the hell hound was dead, it was still the only correct strategy to lynch methodically everyone not named as a guardian.



All in all, what a brilliant game. I think next time I’ll be glad to be human, as it’s a lot of effort being a wolf, as you not only have to work out who is a wolf, but also who the guardians, seers and humans are. You also have to really carefully check your posts. At one point, when there were four people left in U-13, I almost posted that there was a one in four chance of lynching a werewolf in the U-13, compared to a one in three chance ashore, but that would have given away that I was a werewolf, as it should have been a one in three for both sides. I had no idea there was another werewolf left. The attack levels were too low.

The only way to know for sure if the games are balanced, is to play a few and see who wins, without changing the rules between games. If one side wins consistently, then the balance needs adjusting, until then we won’t know and it’s too early to change anything.

When I have some time, I'd love to work out all the probabilities involved, e.g. likelyhood of a werewolf killing a werewolf on the first night etcetera.

[Nisgeis]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

I was told some players sent screenshots of their PM from me assigning their secret IDs! Like that wouldn't be easy to fake, lol.

It's not easy to fake a foolproof version of a document you haven't seen, as you've got no idea what the text should say. Even if you do manage to get the text of the original PM, you then have to know what times you sent the other PMs. IE, assuming you sent all the IDs out in one go, then are you limited to 90 seconds between messages? What happens if someone has a PM that is within 90 seconds of the time on the faked PM? All that sort of stuff is easy to get wrong and if you do slip up, then you are dead. Also, you can't pretend to be anything but human. If you pretend to be a guardian, by getting someone's PM off them and you whip up a fake PM based on that, then the correct logical challenge to that is 'Let's see a screenshot of your request for who to guard'. Like, the werewolves one said 'Werewolves, Attack!'. So, did the guardian one say Guardians, Guard! or Guardians, Protect?! Either way, you are just opening yourself up for a counter challenge that you can't respond to and then you are dead. Forgery is not as easy as it seems.

I was a bit surprised that people were doing this, as I don't really feel it's within the spirit of the game. It's like getting down to the last four people and then saying, right, turn your secret cards over and let's see who you are. When I play again, I don't want to see these screenshots sent unsolicited to me, as it just takes something of the game away. I was quite disappointed at the end when I had seen two peoples secret ID PMs and knew who they were for sure, as it took a lot of the mystery of the game away. I certainly will never send a screenshot of my secret ID PM to anyone in any other games, even if I am human.

The game is quite a lot of work to play and I don't think anyone should resort to the effort of actually forging the initial PMs as that's just too much. There were plenty of great mind games going on and I don't know about revealing your secret ID PMs as a game tactic. It makes the game somehow less cunning and guile and more mathematical certainty.

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

I waited for someone to “find and retrieve the talisman.”

What would have happened if a werewolf had picked it up? :-)

[Nisgeis]

Originally Posted by Penelope_Grey

FWIW... Nisgeis I tried several methods to eliminate you as a suspect. When you gave into my blackmail and voted to lynch Aramike who you must have known was a wolf, you called my bluff and that threw me somewhat, well done, so then I decided to alter my approach and lean on Pinguin heavy in the hope you would let your guard down. But you didn't really... you refused to vote for him. Which pretty much clued me in as you were the wolf. But I wasn't certain... so had to backtrack then and try to make up the missing ground with Pinguin.

I voted when it made no difference, just in case Aramike was a wolf. At the start, once about 25 - 30% of the total votes available in the early game have been cast, then it's safe to jump on the bandwagon without unduly affecting the outcome of the vote. In the later game, I randomly went from voting at the end, to voting for you, who by that time (after I saw your PM) I knew was not a wolf. I had no idea Aramike was a werewolf, he was very good at hiding. Hitman I kind of guessed, but then he threw me a couple of curve balls, and the narrative of his death (veins like cords and great strength) sort of implied he was the hell hound. TF not a clue, Firewall not a clue, they were very good, or I wouldn't have killed them. The only thing they did was to vote independently, which made them stand out.

I thought about not voting right away the last day, as I considered that it would likely make you switch targets from Weiss Pinguin to me, but at the point, with the two guardians being named, there was no way to win, unless the humans did something really stupid. I was banking that Mookie and AVSM would miss the vote. You clearly had no way of knowing if the werewolf was me or Weiss Pinguin. I could have stuck it out another day, but there really wasn't much point.

I did have some success convincing Weiss Pinguin that your PM was a fake though. I did consider whipping up a fake, but the game was time consuming enough, without having to go through all that rubbish :-).

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by A Very Super Market

mookiemookie flew under the radar for a while. I barely noticed him until the Chad incident. What I do want to know is why he protected me in the first place.

When you made your OOC "please help me, I'm confused and would someone PM me?" post, I knew you were a human. If you were a wolf, you'd just say screw it and keep attacking people regardless of being confused.