Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

“Russia is winning the war” – sure?

There are increasing voices everywhere that see Russia as having an advantage in the war against Ukraine: it is only a matter of time that Moscow wins. However, there are reasonable doubts about this claim. A reply Karl-Heinz Kamp. Vladimir Putin and his loyal followers are likely to take note of the current press coverage in Germany and other NATO states with goodwill. “Russia is winning the war of aggression,” one reads, because time is working for Moscow in the current trench warfare in eastern Ukraine.

Russia has larger reserves and can throw almost unlimited people and material to the front - the defeat of Ukraine is therefore inevitable sooner or later. Ukraine's phalanx of Western supporters will crumble as other crises, such as the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians, overshadow the war in Eastern Europe. The everyday worries of people in Germany, from rising prices to growing migration pressure, would also lead to growing fatigue with Ukraine. The USA, still the strongest supporter of Ukraine, would significantly reduce its aid under pressure from the Republicans, and if Donald Trump were elected president again next November, then everything would be over anyway. Apart from the fact that it is not even defined what exactly is meant by a Russian “victory” or a Ukrainian defeat, there are considerable doubts about such a scenario of decline.

Russia's position remains difficult
Firstly, it should be remembered that on February 24, 2022, it was considered almost certain that Ukraine would only be able to withstand the Russian attack for a few days or weeks. That wasn't even implausible, as the small Ukrainian defence force was opposed by the supposedly huge Russian armed forces, which saw themselves in the tradition of the glorious Red Army. The idea that a year later, a possible “victory” for Ukraine would even have been envisaged would have been dismissed as fantasy at the time.

Even today, Russia finds itself in a position that is anything but comfortable. In nine years of war against Ukraine, Russian armed forces have occupied just 19 percent of Ukrainian territory. The toll in blood paid is unimaginable. A few days ago, American intelligence published estimates of 315,000 casualties on the Russian side, almost 90 percent of the 360,000-man invasion force with which Russia launched the attack. Other estimates, which estimate the number of dead and injured based on the Russian government's (known) payments to victims' families, come to even higher figures.

Further waves of mobilization are likely to be extremely difficult, not to mention the consequences for the motivation of the armed forces. The loss of soldiers and material, the American report continued, would set Russia back 18 years militarily. Russia has also not been able to intercept any of the trains or convoys that bring Western aid to Ukraine via Poland. The Black Sea Fleet has had to withdraw a large number of its ships from Sevastopol and move them further east because just a few British Storm Shadow cruise missiles pose a significant threat. The ammunition supplied by North Korea is said to cause significant security problems and is unlikely to be usable. Further sanctions packages from the European Union and the USA close loopholes through which Russia had obtained modern technology.

Huge costs
The costs of the war are also enormous for Russia and will consume 40 percent of total government spending next year. Gazprom, whose profits once accounted for ten percent of the state budget, has lost 80 percent of its markets in Western Europe without being able to compensate for this with deliveries to India or China - there are simply no pipelines. Having to supply oil to India at $70 a barrel is not a bonanza either. With NATO, we are also faced with an alliance whose gross domestic product is around twenty times higher than that of Russia - not to mention Ukraine's other supporters within the G-7.

But, it is said, Russia is capable of suffering and can endure its own hardships until Western support for Ukraine dwindles. However, it doesn't look like that so far. The members of the European Union have just decided to start accession talks with Ukraine, offering the country anchoring in the West - something that Putin was determined to prevent. A new aid package for Ukraine will be decided sooner or later, despite the current resistance from Hungary, and even if the EU's overall commitment were to weaken at some point, countries like Poland, Finland, Sweden or the Baltic States will always support Ukraine.

Unbroken solidarity
It is also noteworthy that Germany has largely excluded the defence budget and aid to Ukraine from the budget cuts that have recently become necessary and is instead saving on social and climate protection spending - and that under a Social Democratic Chancellor and a Green Economics Minister. Surveys show that this prioritization even finds a clear majority among the public.

But what about the growing unwillingness of US Republicans to continue providing funds for Ukraine - didn't President Zelensky just leave Washington without having achieved anything? Here too it is worth having a closer look. The majority of Republicans in Congress are not against supporting Ukraine, but above all against President Joe Biden, who they do not want to begrudge success.

The real domestic debate revolves around means of securing America's southern border against migrants - a discussion that Republicans are keen to have but that Democrats want to avoid. Aid to Ukraine is the pawn in this heated dispute. If both parties manage to overcome their shadows despite the deep social divisions, aid can continue to flow to Ukraine. On December 13th and 14th, the Senate and House of Representatives passed a compromise resolution with a large majority of both parties that would allow aid for Ukraine for two more years, provided President Biden makes concessions on border security. Opposition to the decision came only from the ranks of Republican isolationists.

What if Trump wins and is sworn in as the new president on January 20, 2025? Then everything will be different anyway, not only when it comes to Ukraine, but also with regard to transatlantic relations or the future of NATO. But firstly, that is not guaranteed and secondly, there are still 13 months until then - a time that could be very long for Putin given the problems described.

Does all of this mean that, conversely, Ukraine's success is assured? Absolutely not, the losses there are also huge, and without the great international support the country would never have been able to withstand the pressure from Russia for so long. It is up to Ukraine to decide how long it can and will continue to make its own sacrifices, and whether it means “victory” as the reconquest of its entire national territory or some form of compromise. Until then, further Western help for Ukraine is absolutely necessary in terms of security policy, military and moral aspects. Any rhetoric like “Russia will win anyway” undermines the international solidarity that has allowed Ukraine to survive so far. https://internationalepolitik.de/de/...n-krieg-sicher

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

"Russia will win anyway"

This is not what my friends says-They say:
"Ukraine can't win/beat the mighty Russian army
By giving aid to Ukraine we are only postpone the inevitable"

Me myself disagree with them.

Markus

[Skybird]

I say: if not dramatically more material support reaches Ukraine, then it is doomed to fall. Paroles and wishful daydreams, symbolic acts like beginning EU engotiations and endlessly repeatding how soldiareic the West is, mean nothing. The deed is what counts, and the deed is done by managing to bring more support to Ukraine then it alraedy has gotten so far.

Ukraine does not need these negotiations. They will lead nowhere for many, many years to come. What it needs is weapons, weapons, weapons, and ammo for them.

And if this does not come from American arsenals, then I do not know where it should come from. Which is a risk for the US, since it must also plan for the war over Taiwan, if it is serious over its committment there.

Also, the Ukraine must be brought into shape and given allowance to use such weapons on key infrastructure and industrial targets deep inside Russia. You want to win a war against an enemy state? You must bring down its logistic supply chains for the war.

How Ukraine should solve its demogrpohcis and recruitement problems, which gets bigger from month to month, I have no idea. The problem already affects the military operations right now. It degrades morale and human will of the soldiers in the trenches.


Russian production of drones and missiles now outclasses that of NATO, in numbers, and that of Ukraine. Iranian drones now get produced in license in Russia, they do it much faster than the Iranians could ever do it. Loitering amo of Russia now is suerior to that used by Ukraine, both in numbers and qulaity. Zalushnji has relatively openly admitted that. They strike deep into the West of Ukraine, and go after strategic targets.



I am tired of rewaidng dand hearing that russia cnanot do this and cannot maintain that. Its beyonsd me that Russia still is beign underestimated and that it is not recognized that it has learned and adapts. The wa rof high losses is the war what the Russian army always ahs trained, and what its tanks are build for, very different to that of Western design philosophy. Most of the Western armour , most of those Bradlkey sand Marders and Lepard-2s seem to be down now. Unfortunately Putin did not promise too much when he predicted they would burn as good as just any other tank. And nione fo those armorued paltforms has antgi-.drone capabilities. The rsusian have air superioreity now. And the battlefield is totally transparent to both sides, everybody sees everything as soon as it moves.



Ukraine has not yet lost, but it cannot win this way, that much is certain. And the offensive - was a very costly DESASTER, costing it much of its best troops and equipment. For a dent 10x12km in the Russian frontline, not more. This year, if looking at the full frontlof 1200km, Russian and Uktianain territorial gaisn all were minor, menaignless if viewed at indioviodually, and if adding them up, the aolmost nullified each other. Its a stalemate, with Ukraine'S supply situation beign threateningly bad, and that of Russia constanlty imrpoivned and alraeyd being much better than that of Ukraine. Means: what is a stalemate now must not stay to be a stalemate for ever, sooner or later the situation will tip in Russia's favour if Ukraine does not get dramatically- DRAMATICALLY - more material supply and solves its recruitment problem.



No European nation is either willing nor capable to repeat the material supply of the past 18 months. Currently the signs cannot be gonroed that war fatugue is spreaidng in European capitals, and hat governments try to avoid sending more. Biden is more concerjed in telling ukraine what it is nto asllwoed to do with its wepaons, and the 20-30 ATACMS of first generation that it got, are almost all spent in combat to take out Russia's helicopters.



Nowe the hpe is on the F-16, and while it will be useful, it is no wonder weapon that will all by itself change the war. Also, to bring its strength out in all force it dpends on beign embedded into the NAOT doctrine of warfare and embedded in the system of combined arms and interlinked sensors. The Ukraine seems to be overburdened with these demands, we saw durign the ofegfsnbiove, they lack the ability to brign all what they were trained in in the West to count in combat, also, the ylack thre technical equipment. The Vipoersd will be sueful, but not as useful as they would be if they would be opeating within a NATO framework of operations. They will fight with one wing bound on their backs, so to speak. Which will still deliver some combat value. Its a very versatile fighting bird. But neither invulnerable nor invincible. And Russian loitering ammunition all over Ukraine will spy for and chase its ground bases.

[mapuc]

If Russia should win then
It saddens me that Russia can get away with their aggressive actions in Ukraine

I wish Putin got a real hard smack on his fingers.

Underestimate the Russians is wrong, well overestimate them is wrong too.

Even though it doesn't look so bright for the Ukrainians I still hope they going to give Russia such a headache that they withdraw

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I wish Putin got a real hard smack on his fingers.

Not so shy, a slit throat would suit him much better - and his successors. Unfortunately not feasible. Too bad.

[mapuc]

I go against the Germany's Minister of Defence
Putin isn't interested in attacking a western country not tomorrow or in 10 years from now

https://www-bt-dk.translate.goog/udl..._x_tr_pto=wapp

I can't predict what he will do with former Soviet countries such as Kazakhstan or Georgia

Markus

[Skybird]

Although the German Minister of Defense uses pithy words, he wasn't hired to succeed (he hasn't so far), but to deflect criticism of Babble Olaf and draw it to himself. A decoy.

[Skybird]

A mike was found in Zalushnji's office.

Could be the Russians behind it (most likely scenario). Could be Zelenskji's camp behind it (possible and not unrealistic at least). Both are not good.

Ukrainian military counter intelligence certainly does not look good here.

Very low probability that it was the US, or another NATO country, UK or France.

[Skybird]

The balance is shifting ever faster in Russia's favor. Western reaction: none.


https://www-achgut-com.translate.goo..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

• Members of Russian Shtorm-Z units are highly likely being returned to combat duties with unhealed wounds, and even after limb amputations. This follows credible reports that members of Shtorm-Z, Donetsk militias, and Wagner Group have frequently received minimal or no treatment.
• It is likely that convict recruits - who make up a large proportion of Shtorm-Z units - are especially liable to receive poor treatment. One reason is that prisoners often lack the paperwork required to access military hospitals.
• Whilst reducing pressure on an overburdened military medical system, the lack of proper in-theatre medical attention will transfer the administrative and medical burden back to troopsÂ’ home units.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1736734710288535688
Do and will not see this as a sign of a victorious army (country), Russians do not have it to win.

Further call-off from artillery framework agreement - order value in the €300 million range

The German Bundeswehr has again called off 155 mm artillery ammunition from Rheinmetall under the framework agreement. Rheinmetall has been commissioned to supply a total of several tens of thousands shells of various types for the Ukrainian armed forces. The order is worth a three-digit million euro amount. Delivery is scheduled for the course of 2025.

The new call-off continues the series of artillery ammunition orders previously placed by the Bundeswehr for the Ukrainian and German armed forces. In July 2023, Rheinmetall concluded a new framework agreement with the Bundeswehr in the artillery sector. It covers the delivery of several hundred thousand shells, fuses and propelling charges. The new framework agreement runs until 2029 and has a potential gross order volume of around €1.2 billion (including VAT).

The need to replenish stores of ammunition caused by the war in Ukraine is resulting in major artillery ammunition contracts for Rheinmetall. https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media...ll-off-ukraine

This is eggcellent eggciting news now Eggia need help with eggs as well everything in Eggia is going eggceptionally swell.

The Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has zeroed the duty on egg imports to Russia to stabilize prices. The duty will be effective from January 1 to June 30, 2024. EEC Trade Minister Andrei Slepnev expects that it will allow importing up to 1.2 billion eggs into the country. According to him, Turkey and Iran will provide supplies. According to Rosstat, over the past month and a half, the price of chicken eggs has risen by 20%, and by 46.18% since the beginning of the year.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

This is eggcellent eggciting news now Eggia need help with eggs as well everything in Eggia is going eggceptionally swell.

The Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has zeroed the duty on egg imports to Russia to stabilize prices. The duty will be effective from January 1 to June 30, 2024. EEC Trade Minister Andrei Slepnev expects that it will allow importing up to 1.2 billion eggs into the country. According to him, Turkey and Iran will provide supplies. According to Rosstat, over the past month and a half, the price of chicken eggs has risen by 20%, and by 46.18% since the beginning of the year.

[Jimbuna]

Surely there must be some vehicle in the rules that can be used to ban a country from the EU

EU 'reaches new low' as infighting erupts after Vladimir Putin ally's shameless move

The European Union reached a "low point" as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to throw a spanner in the works of Brussels.

Despite weeks of threats he would oppose the decision for the bloc to begin accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, the Hungarian leader backed down at the last minute by leaving the room at the moment of the vote, essentially abstaining from it.

Hours later, however, Mr Orban made Brussels' work difficult again as he vetoed a €50billion (£43bn) four-year financial aid package for war-torn Ukraine.

Daniel Hegedüs, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think-tank, told the Financial Times: "It was a low point for the EU and a new high point of escalation."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...c6cd03d1&ei=14