Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[ikalugin]

During the beginning of the so-called little green men appearing on the Crimean peninsula, he once should have described them as "polite men".

I even know where term "polite men" originated from.

@oberon - missed your question about Belarus.
Basically Lukashenko is on the Russian train, as it is where he sells his wares, where he gets energy from and so on. Unless something goes really wrong he would still be there, and I don't think that Maidan route is possible there.

P.s. what Lukashenko truly ever wanted was to be a Russian rather than Belarussian president I think, but then Putin came about and he isn't going anywhere.

[MH]

Originally Posted by August

Their always formidable propaganda machine has managed to muddy up the waters sufficiently that a fair number of people in the west now believe them over their own governments, their own news media not to mention the last 160 years of almost non stop Russian expansionism.

You don't get it August...
At the end of the day people believe what they want to believe.
Most don't really care.
Russia provides enough reasonable doubt for the people to not feel compelled to the conflict or take sides for real...
That is the beauty of this all.
At the end of the day nobody wants a war over some forsaken place at the edge of the Europe so all you need is feed this stance with whatever you can.

Considering that Russian Army at the moment uses conscription - I think there is enough of people with relevant military profession available (in fact there would be thousands of conscripts every year who just finished their service in tank unit or sub unit), especially considering that Separatists are fairly open about them looking for volunteers (in fact I think they have a fairly decent infrastructure for that in Rostov I think).

You probably could call them reservists also .

@alex.
yes

[ikalugin]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...st_20_years%20

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by MH

It would be interesting to know who operates this equipment.
Although I suppose a some of separatists did the mandatory service in their time , probably very few are can operate those things and even less few are minimally competent at the task.
I don't suppose Russians unload the equipment and leave.
This would require some volunteers on leave from Russian army.

well, the Russian argument has been that any equipment used by the Rebels was either captured from the Ukrainians (although that argument has been wearing thin) or ,yes, it may be Russian equipment, but it is operated by the Rebels.

However, you don't just pick up a tank and start operating it. The crew has to be trained not only in the equipment itself, but how to act as a team (as well as not killing friendly forces through a bonehead move).

Here are other examples of vehicles used by the "Rebels":



"Rebel" SNAR-10 and AKR-1 spotted on nov. 12th near Torez city. These are older models, but still sophisticated counter-battery equipment. You need specialized training to use these effectively. Speculation is that these are crewed by Russian specialists.



Krasukha-4. This is top of the line ECM/jamming equipment which the Russians have only had since 2013. How did the Rebels get a hold of one of these?

[antikristuseke]

They found it, obviously

[kranz]

in b4 ikalugin saying that 'they definitely aren't russian'.

[ikalugin]

@kranz, if you read my posts you would note that I do not deny that Russia supplies weapons and volunteers to the Separatists. Not after B3 anyway.

At Bilge Rat, do you happen to have solid geolocation (and date) fix for that ECM station? The FB post text suggests that the source is at least somewhat biased due to it calling the alleged source of this equipment - Russian Fascists.

[Catfish]

Whatever happens in the Ukraine, and why, it b.t.w. disturbs the trade between Russia and Europe, and it already backfires, especially on Germany's economy
And up jumps the US, with a helping hand (TTIP). But there is a lot of resistance in Europe and especially in Germany, and it is still growing. If this treaty is being signed, there will be violence.
I doubt that Merkel realises, what she's doing.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

At Bilge Rat, do you happen to have solid geolocation (and date) fix for that ECM station? The FB post text suggests that the source is at least somewhat biased due to it calling the alleged source of this equipment - Russian Fascists.

I will check with my sources and revert. I do not read Russian unfortunately.

However, here is one which is rock solid. This was filmed by AP reporters on nov. 8th inside East Ukraine.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

I will check with my sources and revert. I do not read Russian unfortunately.

However, here is one which is rock solid. This was filmed by AP reporters on nov. 8th inside East Ukraine.

Thank a for the video, could you comment which items of equipment are staffed (in your opinion) by regular Russian Troops? After quick look on my phone I could see (correct me if I am wrong):
- lots of trucks with field generators, water tanks and such.
- a number of trucks with towed artillery pieces.
- a battery command post vehicle? (Cant positively ID it, it is on common chassis - a BTR80 derivative i think)

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Thank a for the video, could you comment which items of equipment are staffed (in your opinion) by regular Russian Troops? After quick look on my phone I could see (correct me if I am wrong):
- lots of trucks with field generators, water tanks and such.
- a number of trucks with towed artillery pieces.
- a battery command post vehicle? (Cant positively ID it, it is on common chassis - a BTR80 derivative i think)

well, you have a convoy of brand new military trucks, all painted Russian green, in unit formation, with all the requisite equipment and covers in place and all the servicemen seem to be wearing regular Russian uniforms.

My initial impression is that this is a regular Russian army unit, but I will play along. What is your explanation?

[ikalugin]

Product bundling.

Ie apart from the possible explanation that those are indeed regular Russian troops (yet to be proven of course, but such definitive proof is quite obviously difficult to make) I could think up of:
- Separatists moving around their equipment (it doesn't say that it has just crossed the border, at least from what I could tell), equipment most likely supplied by Russia.
- Russian troops delivering a package of weapons (in this case it appears to be a towed artillery Divizion, at later point i couold try to ID the specific equipment items, count them and so on if you wish) with their munitions to the separatists.

P.s. and I don't rise the issue of geolocation and dating, as you appear to be a sufficiently honest opponent in an argument and AP to be the good kind of media (and no, I don't really trust media of any kind to be precise in such cases, so I would always prefer to have video or photo data to be independently geo located and time stamped).

[August]

Originally Posted by Alex

US ingerence/interventionism through military attack, sabotage and agitation since the end of the second world war.

I said "expansionism". Have any of those places on your list been annexed by the US?

Yes we may meddle in other countries business but Russia eats them. Since the fall of the Soviet Union Russia has annexed parts of two different countries. List that.

Besides, what another country does or doesn't do is immaterial. We're talking about Russia and Ukraine. The way I see it your attempt to change the subject only illustrates the weakness of your argument.

[ikalugin]

Criemea (from Ukraine) is the first one I assume (even through technically it went independent first and was recognised as such by Russia), which is the second?

[CCIP]

I think he's referring to the Georgian 2008 war, which by the way would be tremendously inaccurate and shows a lack of understanding of the post-Soviet history of that region. Neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia are part of Russia, and their relationship with the Kremlin is strained at best (particularly in the case of Abkhazia and particularly since the fall of Saakashvili's government in Georgia). And that's without mentioning the history of those conflicts during the 90s.

In that regard, the US history of "regime change" is more clearly found both as a formal policy and in practice during the same period, and with arguably worse results for all involved.