Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

One of you said on several occasions that Putin wouldn't initiate a general mobilization



Markus

[Skybird]

No, things are absolutely not going well for Ukraine, especially in the US.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67585902


Ukraine cannot win against the will of the US, nor without the will of the US.

[Skybird]

Zelenskyi and his seven enemies.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

The confrontation between Zelenskyi and Zalushnyi boils on - and not on just a small flame anymore.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

The problem is that Zelenskyi now is in a position where he has nothing but illusions to sell anymore - both to the Western donators, and his own people. Zalushnyi imho sees things much, much more sober and realistic.


And the military leadership cannot form a new plan for 2024 - if there are no reserves and material ressources left that could be used in such a plan.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The confrontation between Zelenskyi and Zalushnyi boils on - and not on just a small flame anymore.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

The problem is that Zelenskyi now is in a position where he has nothing but illusions to sell anymore - both to the Western donators, and his own people. Zalushnyi imho sees things much, much more sober and realistic.


And the military leadership cannot form a new plan for 2024 - if there are no reserves and material ressources left that could be used in such a plan.

"The key to Russia's victory is internal destabilisation in Ukraine," Lytvynenko wrote.

In addition, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, Oleksii Danilov, said in an interview with The Times that Russia had activated a network of spies in Ukraine who were trying to "drive a wedge between the political and military leadership of Ukraine, as well as to stir up anti-government sentiment among the population".

He added that Russia was trying to take advantage of the "so-called tension" between President Zelenskyy and the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
https://svidomi.in.ua/en/page/russia...nched-recently

[Skybird]

The tensions between both men are real since the camp of Zelenskyi suspects that Zalushnyi might one day seek higher political merits himself - and he might be the only one having a realistic chance to challenge Zelenskyi. Thats not without irony (that Zelsenkyi is so hard for other contenders to reach) because before the war Zelenskyi was anything but popular, his election was less the result of love or respect, but of protest against the ruling corrupt establishment. Zelenkyi handled the office not well, and he failed to prepare the country for the Tussin attack, since he stuck his head into the sand. But once the war started, he really grew into his boots. If the military success wanes, however, its like the ice Zelenskyi stands on is melting away.

Note that there is another rivalry as well, and that is between Zelenskyi and the mayor of Kyiv, Vitaly Klitschko. Its just not really clear, at least in the media, what these two are about. But here again, Klitschko in my perception has the far more realistic (and sober) view of how the situation is.

Its clear however that currently Zelenskyi has nothing to offer anymore. He sells fantastic illusions currently. Or he tries to. And these get less and less bought even by his own population. And less and lesser by the troops in the field anyway. In the US, there always was a suspicion of the man, one dealt with him since he was the one who was there, but trusting him? I would not go this far to describe my perception of how America sees Zelenskyi.

Zelenskyi's value isin his success in drummign for support and getting Western aid on board. For this he deserves credits for as long as it was successful. But it isnt anymore. And that means he becomes replacable. And maybe replacing him becomes necessary - and that is when it gets clear the West will not give Ukraine the support it needs to continue and win the war. I say since months and months that the West will not equip another four attack brigades for Ukraine. It will not happen.

The conflict will freeze, will drop in intensity, but getting extended without time limit. Russia does this often, freezing conflicts and keeping them simmering on, benefitting from them this way and weakening the other side constantly.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The tensions between both men are real since the camp of Zelenskyi suspects that Zalushnyi might one day seek higher political merits himself - and he might be the only one having a realistic chance to challenge Zelenskyi. Thats not without irony (that Zelsenkyi is so hard for other contenders to reach) because before the war Zelenskyi was anything but popular, his election was less the result of love or respect, but of protest against the ruling corrupt establishment. Zelenkyi handled the office not well, and he failed to prepare the country for the Tussin attack, since he stuck his head into the sand. But once the war started, he really grew into his boots. If the military success wanes, however, its like the ice Zelenskyi stands on is melting away.

Note that there is another rivalry as well, and that is between Zelenskyi and the mayor of Kyiv, Vitaly Klitschko. Its just not really clear, at least in the media, what these two are about. But here again, Klitschko in my perception has the far more realistic (and sober) view of how the situation is.

Its clear however that currently Zelenskyi has nothing to offer anymore. He sells fantastic illusions currently. Or he tries to. And these get less and less bought even by his own population. And less and lesser by the troops in the field anyway. In the US, there always was a suspicion of the man, one dealt with him since he was the one who was there, but trusting him? I would not go this far to describe my perception of how America sees Zelenskyi.

Zelenskyi's value isin his success in drummign for support and getting Western aid on board. For this he deserves credits for as long as it was successful. But it isnt anymore. And that means he becomes replacable. And maybe replacing him becomes necessary - and that is when it gets clear the West will not give Ukraine the support it needs to continue and win the war. I say since months and months that the West will not equip another four attack brigades for Ukraine. It will not happen.

The conflict will freeze, will drop in intensity, but getting extended without time limit. Russia does this often, freezing conflicts and keeping them simmering on, benefitting from them this way and weakening the other side constantly.

To know Vitaly Klitschko you have to watch the documatary "Winter On Fire Ukraines Fight For Freedom (2015)" about the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine from 21 November 2013 to 23 February 2014. You will notice when the people take the power and decide what he does not want he gets angry, certainly at the end when one of the leaders of the Defence Unit of the revolution take the stage and says

Here's what I want to say. We're ordinary people, talking to these politicians standing behind me. Yanukovych will not be the president for one more year! He must resign! Resign! Resign! My compatriot was shot down! He had a wife and a baby! And our "leaders" shake hands with these murderers! Shame on them! Shame on them! Shame on them! I speak to you on behalf of my entire Defence Unit that my father joined too. If tomorrow by 10:00 a.m. you (Vitaly Klitschko) do not make a statement about Yanukovych's resignation, I swear, we will go on an armed offensive!

Vitaly Klitschko is not pleased, certainly not when the people tell him he is nothing without him. Early the next morning, Viktor Yanukovych entered a plane to Russia.

Originally Posted by Next morning in the Ukrainian parliament

The Ukrainian parliament, expressing the will of the Ukrainian nation, declares, first, the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, has resigned in an unconstitutional way, and will not be fulfilling the duties of the president. Second, schedule early presidential election for May 25, 2014. Third, this resolution comes into effect from the moment of its adoption. 328 lawmakers voted in favour. The resolution is adopted!

I do not trust him. I want to add Ukraine is a democracy, so different opinions are needed for a good democracy. Marshall Allenbrook, the chief of the Imperial general staff in the UK in the second world war and Winston Churchill, they had many serious fights, but they still managed to work it out in the end.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

One of you said on several occasions that Putin wouldn't initiate a general mobilization

[Video]

Markus

If there is a general mobilization it will be after Putin's reelection if they're going to do that it's not just about Ukraine, it is a mobilization against us.

U.S. Companies to Help Launch Ammunition Production in Ukraine

Ukraine has reached an agreement with two leading U.S. companies to jointly produce 155mm ammunition on Ukrainian territory. The Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kamyshin, reported on this. The Minister noted that the implementation of these projects will take years.

“There are long-term solutions, but they are very important for us. This is the decision to produce ammunition, primarily 155 caliber. We have agreements with two leading U.S. companies on joint production of 155-caliber ammunition in Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Kamyshin. According to the minister, the process of producing 155-caliber ammunition takes “at least two, maximum three years.”

To start such production, Ukraine needs the technologies that its partners have. “Ukraine has never produced these calibers, you know that. Therefore, the sooner we start, the sooner we will have these solutions, and they will work for the Defense Forces,” he said. As previously reported, the U.S. Department of Defense intends to increase the production of 155mm artillery shells by 500% over the next two years.

Growing demand from U.S. allies and a decades-long trend of consolidation in the defense sector have led to an expansion of arms production in the country. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/u-s-compan...on-in-ukraine/

[Skybird]

The WP puts the blame for the failed strategy in parts - major parts? - on Zalushnyi'S shoudlers. However, how realistic was it if the Americans demanded and expected the Ukrainians to push an offensive run according to US doctrine - if thatd octrine rules for air suepriority while the Ukrainians had none? They reacted to the fact that during Russian CAS air raids and gunship attacks they got slaughtered out there.

However, the impression in the US that the Ukrainians not onyl failed but also failed because they refused to follow American advice, certainly will not be helpful to mobilize new American will to send more such quantities of weapons again.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

As I see it currentlky, early Decmbre 2023, Ukraine will not be able anymore to "win the war" according to its terms and definitions. Best they can hope for is to continue and extend the war and keep it running. Russia will bleed, but Ukriane willa slo bleed out. And Ukraine is much less able to afford that constant loss of blood - different to Russia.

This outlook can only change if the West sends much, much more robust aid and supply and weapons than it already has in the previous two years.

But the Western approach and strategy and all thos ehigh-flying hopes so far - must be declared as "failed". And that "fail" is valid for EVERY single variable of Western reaction to the invasion.

Thats bitter, but I just word the truth.

If not MUCH, MUCH more than before gets done, then Ukraine will lose in the long run - and everything. Ans how likely is that? Europe can not compensate a loss of the US as arms provider, it simply does not have the production capacity.

[Dargo]

We can not expect that Ukraine operate accord our doctrine of NATO and none of its members would ever fight this in this doctrine without an air superiority no NATO member or the whole would ever begin this offensive. This is what newspapers print, do not think any NATO member sees it like they print. The only professional army are at the fronts we in the west only train that is a huge difference these armies in Ukraine are fighting daily we only play wargames that is not a real war also do not expect we got the experience like they do have in Ukraine if you are not really fighting a war you lose knowledge. I have not heard of generals in NATO that this would be an easy walk to the Sea of Azov, more we can not predict this it will be a hard job to pull off. The lack of air power was always known to be an obstacle to win this that let to the situation that both sides are stuck same happened in WWI and WWII it took the allies almost 2 years to plan, build a new way to win these wars.