Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

[Dargo]

Rheinmetall aims to start production of armored vehicles in Ukraine in 2024

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall plans to build the first armored vehicles on-site in Ukraine from the summer of 2024, CEO Armin Papperger said in an interview with German business magazine WirtschaftsWoche on Dec. 2. The first Fuchs armored personnel carriers could be produced in Ukraine by late summer 2024, about six to seven months after signing the relevant contract, Papperger said.

The first Lynx armored fighting vehicles could be built in Ukraine by 2025, or "12 to 13 months" after signing the contract, according to the CEO. The first 10 Lynx vehicles are currently being manufactured in German and Hungarian plants, but "after a ramp-up phase, we should then quickly be in a position to produce a significant number of these vehicles entirely in Ukraine."

Papperger told WirtschaftsWoche that he is not concerned about the security of factories in Ukraine, as Rheinmetall will be "renting existing plants, converting them and then operating them," and "they seem to be quite well protected." Armored vehicles produced abroad are already being repaired and maintained in Ukraine, Paperger said, since "skilled workers from Ukraine have been trained in Germany for this purpose."

Papperger first announced plans for Rheinmetall to produce Fuchs armored personnel carriers in Ukraine in May 2023. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Oct. 24 that Rheinmetall will join forces with Ukraine's state-owned defense company Ukroboronprom to repair and maintain Western-produced military vehicles and ultimately produce them domestically in Ukraine... https://kyivindependent.com/rheinmet...raine-in-2024/

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

[Focus] Kiev's mayor Vitali Klitschko has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky of "mistakes" with unusual clarity. "People are wondering why we weren't better prepared for this war. Why Zelenskyi denied until the end that it would come to this," Klitschko told the Swiss news portal "20 Minuten". "There was too much information that did not match reality," said the former world boxing champion, who called for more honesty with regard to Ukraine's true situation in its fight against Russia's war of aggression. "Selensky is paying for the mistakes he made," said Klitschko.

"Of course we can euphorically lie to our people and our partners. But you can't do that forever," Klitschko continued in the interview, which was picked up by several Ukrainian and Russian media outlets on Sunday. The 52-year-old also demonstratively sided with the Ukrainian commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Valery Salushnyi, who had recently spoken of a stalemate in the war, much to Zelenskyi's annoyance.

Ukraine was at an impasse, Salushnyj had declared. "He told the truth," said Klitschko. "Sometimes people don't want to hear the truth. But ultimately he is responsible. He has explained and justified what the situation is today."

At the same time, Klitschko warned against playing political games in the country, which has been fighting for its independence for almost two years. There should be no trench warfare "in a country whose very existence is shaky". That is why, according to his own statements, he is still not talking about his own political plans and at the same time assured Selensky of his support - until the end of the war. "The president has an important function today and we must support him until the end of the war. But at the end of this war, every politician will pay for his successes or failures."

In the interview, Klitschko also thanked Germany for the delivery of air defence systems, but criticized the country for not also giving Ukraine the long-range Taurus cruise missiles. Berlin is taking refuge in "excuses" here - "our partners are far too cautious and evasive," said the mayor.

[Skybird]

No end to self-deception in the West. Colonel Reisner from the Austrian Bundesheer, in an interview today with German ARD Tagesschau (first state TV channel's main news progam):

https://www-tagesschau-de.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp

(...)

ARD: But the West has supplied a lot in the past, continues to supply and support. Is more support even possible?

Reisner: With the existing arms production, we won't be able to supply what we really need. More effort is needed. And I don't want to use the word "war economy" here, but it will require more in-depth efforts.

From a neutral point of view, the situation is serious. The West must understand that. Is it prepared to support Ukraine? Then it must do more. If it is not prepared to do so, then it must communicate that. This miserable purgatory currently only brings more deaths, but no results.

ARD: About a year ago, you criticized the arms deliveries as being "too much to die, too little to live".

Reisner: I actually said that relatively soon after the war began. When it was clear that the Russians were beginning to recover from the shock of failure at the beginning. Even then you could see that all the preconditions for a war of attrition were being created. You can't fight a war of attrition on the side, you have to go "all in".

Think of the HIMARS system. Instead of the required 100 to 150 units, 38 have been delivered to date. Combat aircraft could also have been delivered earlier. In the case of the ATACMs, the oldest version is delivered in small numbers. More can be done, but there is a fear of escalation.

Now the West is coming to the sobering realization that it has to dig deeper into its pockets. But nobody dares to communicate this message to their populations at the moment because they are afraid of encouraging radicals.

ARD: The EU repeatedly emphasizes that it will stand by Ukraine for as long as necessary and support it in restoring the internationally recognized state borders of 1991, i.e. including Crimea and Donbass.

Reisner: Then you also have to do what is necessary. Despite eleven sets of sanctions, the Russian war industry is increasingly able to adapt. And Russia is not isolated, but has enough support from the Global South to be able to wage this war for longer.

(...)

ARD: How do you think this slaughter can be ended? Russia doesn't want to negotiate - on the contrary ...

Reisner: It's a dilemma. There are many parallels with the situation in Korea. The Korean War was very dynamic at the beginning and then a stalemate developed. It then took two years and 473 days of negotiations to define an 18-page document that established an armistice that is still in force today. Both countries are still in a state of war.

But that would mean that Ukraine will no longer exist within its borders as we know them. And the dilemma is that Russia will be even less willing to negotiate as soon as it realises that the West is on its knees.
ARD: And what should the states of the European Union do now?

Reisner: The good times will probably be over for the time being. And we have to think about how to shape these new times. If we come to the conclusion that we are not prepared to provide Ukraine with the support it needs, then I believe we need to communicate this and possibly start negotiations.

But then Russia will have us exactly where it wants us, and Russia will continue to do what it wants. And that is the destruction of Ukraine.

(...)

-------------------

I stand by what I have implied in many of my comments since months and months: at the rate the war is going currently, and has been going for months, Ukraine will lose it and Russia will win it. I will stick to this assessment unless there is a profound and highly dramatic change in the West's approach to the situation. Which I am not convinced will ever happen. The West is a post-heroic society, as they now call it. It simply does not understand anymore how wars are fought and possibly won: before anything with utmost needed brutality and determination. We are too civilized. Russia accepts and can afford to accept its high losses. By these it buys its military successes. And that is what in the West simply is not understood, becausu by our softy rationals if we were in the seat of the Russians we already would have given up the war to avoid these high losses of ours.

What Ukraine needs now is not the West, but Gandalf and his magic tricks. What I mean by this? That the war is probbaly already decided - all what happens now is answering the question how much more time we need to admit to ourselves that we already have given it up. And that is certainly no compliment to ourselves.



Middle East and Far Est allies of the US will make their conclusions from this. They will not amuse us either.

[Rockstar]

From the meaningless slogans “stand with Ukraine” to “as long it takes”. To this: “Situation for Ukraine could get worse if West does not increase arms supplies” - Stoltenberg

According to the NATO secretary-general, Ukraine is in a "critical situation" and it is necessary to "prepare for bad news".

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

From the meaningless slogans “stand with Ukraine” to “as long it takes”. To this: “Situation for Ukraine could get worse if West does not increase arms supplies” - Stoltenberg

According to the NATO secretary-general, Ukraine is in a "critical situation" and it is necessary to "prepare for bad news".

These quotes by an Ukrainian soldier are most revealing:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

It was madness from all beginning on to rule out long reaching weapons - to not disrupt logistical flow in the Russians' Hinterland, hundreds of kilometers deep into Russia - how can you hope to overcome an enemy of this size then...? It is madness to assume you can win a war by not striking the enemy as hard as possible but instead save him and call that at home "avoiding escalation". I said from early on in this war that my most likely scenario is that neither Paris nor Berlin wish a victorious Ukraine because that would come at their own power's loss in Europe, and that the whole western support likely is just alibi, enough of this alibi to say "look, we did what we could, but the Russians were too tough". And America is boiling its frog, as wanted, and it does it slow and long and nicely but - it boils it not in water, but in Ukrainian blood and at the cost of Ukraine's destruction.

I do not even rule out anymore that there were secret talks with the Russians where they set red lines which no side passes and that are technically designed - by Russia - to secure victory in the long perspective while "agreeing" to a certain ammount of own high losses due to Western support, but not more support than that. That way both sides "save their faces". Power politics.

The EU's role? To appease Kyiv and make them play ball in their territorial self-mutilation by holding a carrot on a long stick and making candy-sweet promises for a distant future.

It all degenerated into cynism in action. Truth is: nobody in the West wants Ukraine to win, the shift of power and influence inside the EU to the East would be too big. Best would be to extend the war and have both unwanted Ukraine and hostile Russia beeing at each other's throats for as long as possible, being distracted that way.

Add to this that there is a deep-rooting mistrust in Zelensky in special, and (corrupt) Kyiv in general.

And another truth is that Russia has overestimated itself and its "cause" early on, - but learned and still learns, and adapted much better than the West. The West however still underestimates the Russians. Its unbelievable - they just take these high losses - which by man power and economy size, compared to Ukraine's, they can afford - and they just do not move, they just shake these losses off, and we still underestimate them. We are still making light of the situation.


Think we have our heads as deep inside our rear ends as our necks are long.

[Skybird]

Matching news from a different topic: global arms sales decline, due to production problems of US manufacturers.



https://www.dw.com/en/global-arms-sa...cts/a-67607430


Add to this that Chinese navy assets by number surpass America's. Chioan builds more of everything. America's forces run low on personnel, especially many specialists move to private business due to better payment. Combat pilots on mind especially, pilots in general. The gap in submarine numbers is projected to widen. Even if the Navy would build more could build more boats (Chinese capacity is much bigger to do so now), it would have problems to crew them (I read). Luxury problems In the German Marine submarine skippers stand in long line to get their own sub command for a short while (I read).

[mapuc]

If Ukraine lose the war, you could say they lost it in the west and not on the battlefield.

The war isn't over yet. Ukraine can fight for an another year or so. The west has to come to it senses-Either we let Russia win the war or we increase massively our military support to Ukraine.

I sincerely hope the amount of supply from the west will increase next year.

The sentence -"We are with you all the way" sounds hollow if it isn't followed up by massive military aid.

The only backfire in all this, is the number of Ukrainian soldiers. When Russia losses 10.000 it's nothing but statistic, when Ukraine lose 10.000 it is a disaster.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

If Ukraine lose the war, you could say they lost it in the west and not on the battlefield.

I would say they got actively prevented from winning it.

Originally Posted by mapuc

I sincerely hope the amount of supply from the west will increase next year.

Where is the fundamental increase in production capacity that is precondition for that? Or do you think a factory producing Fuchs light APCs from second half 2024 on will make a difference? Of 1 million artillery rounds the EU promised Kyiv by the end of this year, not more than one third - at best - actually has been delivered . And 1 million shells was a low number considering the speed by which they get consumed in this war.

The precondition for suporting, is priouction. And production does not get significantly raised in Europe.


Denial of war reality.