Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

They don't need to fight, they just need to bleed.

In Russia's case, this has turned into a war of attrition. As long as they have people to throw into the grinder they can keep pressure on Ukraine.

These young men and women shall not bleed.
As I mentioned in my reply to Skybird-They can be placed on farms or in hospital to help with smaller task.

And the same goes for the elder over 65 years old

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[August]

A sobering article. Some major points below:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive ended without achieving its primary or secondary objectives; It is good that General Zaluzhny made it clear in the Economist article that there will be no breakthrough; Ukrainian operational potential in Zaporizhihia is exhausted;

. From my point of view, the discrepancy between tactics and strategy was too big and consequently, Ukraine's approach during the counteroffensive (small unit) tactics could not deliver the expected objectives;

. But the downside to Zaluzhny's article was one of the words he used: stalemate. I think (and this is purely my own interpretation) that Zelensky's approach centres around exerting continuous pressure on Western partners to provide Ukraine with equipment. In this context, a stalemate, a cessation of activities, or the freezing of the frontline has strong 2015 vibes and could result in the freezing of the war in general. Ukrainian political leadership wants to avoid such an outcome as it may encourage some Western partners to seek to go "back to business as usual" with Russia.

. That's why Zelensky quickly hit back to Zaluzhny's words, saying there was no stalemate. But Zelensky nevertheless dismissed the commander of Ukrainian SOF behind Zaluzhny's back;

. It is, therefore, clear that the relationship between both men is strained;

. Personally, I heard nothing about the issue of "negotiations with Russia";

. I expect Ukrainian attacks in the south (Kherson and Zaporizhiia) to continue over the coming weeks and months, even though they can only deliver tactical gains.

. For weeks, we warned (Rochan) that the Ukrainian intensity of operations would need to decrease due to shortages of artillery munitions (we predicted late September-early October). Ultimately, we were slightly off. Ukrainian access to artillery munitions is limited, resulting in significantly decreased intensity of artillery strikes. With Ukraine's land forces being very artillery-centric, it is hard to imagine any major(ish) offensive actions over the next six months. A lot will depend on the Western supply of artillery munitions. Still, with the US and Europe not fulfilling their production objectives, Ukraine may limit their offensive operations throughout the entire 2024.

. Western supplies of artillery ammunition are not only limited but also occur irregularly, which makes it very difficult to plan fire missions; Likewise, Ukrainians would like to understand the logistics of any system in the long term perspective so that they could plan operations accordingly over a longer period;

. With small exceptions (Kherson and Orikhiv), Ukrainians are now on the defensive along the entire front, which will likely necessitate the creation of fortified lines on the Ukrainian side; This, combined with mobilisation (see below), would significantly decrease pressure on Ukrainian forces needed (also its quality) to defend the frontline;

. The aftermath of the counteroffensive will likely force Kyiv to rework its theory of victory. I think that pushing Russia out of Ukraine (even to pre-FEB22) border will be an incredibly difficult task. As stated, the initiative has shifted. Russia is now on the offensive, and with its economy or war footing, it can produce more of everything compared to Ukraine. Its economic potential can sustain the war, and I expect Russians to conduct several attempts to break the frontline deadlock from now until the end of 2024;

. Ukraine suffers from shortages of almost everything, although its industry is working hard to plug some gaps. For instance, Ukraine plans to produce hundreds of thousands of drones next year, which can not only improve its ISR but fill some gaps caused by an insufficient number of artillery shells;

. The deficit of 152 mm shells is huge, but ideally, over the next few years, Ukrainians would like to make the full switch to NATO's 155 mm standard;

. Ukrainians cannot scale production as fast as the Russians, leaving them vulnerable in many areas (artillery production, armour, drones, missiles); Another interesting, although not necessarily surprising, idea is to push a lot of funding from the government to the private/NGO sector; Ukrainian companies made great quality products and are more cost-effective and flexible in fulfiling military needs; They also respond to changes in requirements quicker;

. Some gaps will be more difficult to address. For instance, many Ukrainian soldiers we spoke to spoke highly of M113s APCs and asked for more; No one asked for ATACMS, but almost everyone asked for M113s; Request for ATACMS was political rather than military driven, although again, everything depends on the numbers; My view is that if Ukrainian soldiers were to choose between hundreds of M113s and 20 ATACMS, they'd choose the former;

. Tanks are neither obsolete nor heading for obsolescence; They are used regularly, and Ukrainians asked for more; They continue to offer a high degree of manoeuvrability, firepower and protection;

. The war is also very drone-centric. There could be 20 drones flying near the frontline along the 10 km wide front. Neither side has the ability to achieve a tactical surprise unless an attack is launched in drone adverse weather (rain with very heavy winds); Readiness to respond to ground attacks is very high. We saw Russian troops (a platoon) walking towards the frontline. Once they were detected, they were engaged by mortars within 30 seconds and by artillery cluster munitions after an additional four minutes. Both sides have capabilities to ISR opposing forces' tactical depths;

. As you are hopefully accustomed to how we report frontline changes (The situation at selected axes and directions), we want to make it clear that probably 90% (if not more) of attacks conducted by both sides involve squad/platoon formations. Company-level attacks are a rarity; That's why initial Russian attacks near Avdiivka were so unusual, as they involved the concurrent deployment of battalions/regiments, something we have not seen since MAR2022;

. Ukrainians suffer from the lack of battalion commanders. That's many in some brigades, battalions were expanded to include new companies;

. Morale is high, but troops are also exhausted; Many have been in the fight for months or, in some cases, more than a year. Legislation has been introduced now to allow 40-day of vacations a year, something which was welcomed by soldiers on the ground;

. The bulk of Ukrainian forces are deployed in or near the front, which makes it very difficult to train and regenerate formations. In this context, I believe that Kyiv's current approach to mobilisation (ongoing but hidden) is insufficient to build up forces necessary for force regeneration, let alone future large-scale counteroffensives;

. Although the initial training has been extended from 30 to 60 days, it still fails to address manpower gaps. Even partial mobilisation would allow currently deployed troops to be rotated, retrained and regenerated, which should improve their survivability (decrease losses) and increase combat effectiveness;

. Although it has already been reported in the Polish press, we confirmed that Polish 155mm Krab SPHS are very versatile. The manufacturer recommends changing the barrel every 1,500 fires. Some Ukrainian guns fired more than 6,000 rounds. As a result, some barrels can now fire 157 mm rounds;

. Russians don't conserve glide bombs;

. Russians continue to operate Ka-52s with three usually on standby; if a target pops up, one helo lights it with a laser and two engage with missiles; They have a new missile with 11-12 km range.

. Ukrainians cannot effectively counter this threat;

. There are concerns that Russians may finally push to reach the Osikl River in the Kharkiv Oblast (they have the capacity); However, at the same time, troops told us that some Russian actions appeared to have a fixing character; We cannot presently assess the likelihood of a Russian large-scale attack in this area;

. The situation in Kupyansk is interesting in that Russians have the capacity to reach the Osikl River; If attacks are successful, Russians may again begin to hit Kharkiv with artillery;

https://postlmg.cc/crqYVFky

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Lets again look beyond the glossy hipphipphooray videos. This is the sober as ever Colonel Reisner.

https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos...e24544032.html

He explains that the early fog of this season of the year allowed Ukrainian soldiers to cross the Dnjepr in concealment and Russians drones could not see the the small tiny boats. Ukraine has established some small pockets of forces that have not been really tested by the Russians so far, and they even brought a few armoured vehicles over. The terrain they are in is formerly flooded terrain, and Ukraine has shown to be unable to break out beyond this flooding bassin. The Colonel seems to be sceptical about the heavy relevance of all this, and rates it more as sort of a PR stunt by which the Ukraine tries to hold up its relevance in the international media and perception of the world, to appear as still being able to run military offensive operations, not to get lost behind the Middle East crisis. In other words, its about giving the West signals that it still is a good idea to give material support to Ukraine while the scepticism especially in the English-tongued press asks more and more questions on whether its worth it to continue. So, the military importance of the Dnjepr crossing so far is minor, its more about giving a proof of freedom to act to the Western donators. Ukraine has not been able to make anything more of it so far. There has been no breaching and certainly no breakthrough. The bridgehead currently is vulnerable, since Ukraine cannot really supply it in numbers, there are no solid bridges and no ponton bridges that would be needed to supply it reliably (I assume since these would be seen they would come under immediate Russian artillery fire). Reisner finally reasons about that Ukraine seems to approach its culmination point in this war. This culmination point is defined and gets decided by whether or not the West not only continues but massively increases its material support to Ukraine, not just with ammo, but also new weapons. If the West does not fundamentally raises its support beyond what was given so far, Ukraine will need to cut back on its goals and will not be able to maintain the continuation of its war objectives as defined so far.

I never hid my scepticism in this thread. And I seem to perceive that Reisner's scepticism has risen further over the past months as well. He just does not waste time with explicitly voicing it, he just says: if we do this and do not do that, it will have this and that consequences. Of all militaries advising the TV shows and newspapers on the situation, he really stands out. Follies like "Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year" (Hodges) are unthinkable to be said by him, nor does he support any sort of political propanda or wanted narration. Good man! A studied historian and commander of their Vienna Guards and some tactical analysis think tank and training board.

Unfortunately, almost all European politicians refuse to listen to the few warning voices of sober reason out there. The dreamdancing continues. By our rejection of investing what is needed in investements, we put Ukraine on the track to defeat. Always too little, and always late, is our motto.

I am also worried about the iopinion rifts inside NATO governments, and what it means for NATO's worth in case that indeed NATO's article 5 would be called out. My trust in the alliance's security guarantees has clearly suffered in the past 18 months. If I were living in the Baltic, I would be very seriously worried.


The German finance ministry has just locked down the budget and the spending options of all ministries, its a capital fiscal crisis over here. Over 200 billions are missing in their budget. That indicates something about the German financial ability to stand by its bigmouthed words about defending its Eastern neighbours and supporting Ukraine - the material impossibiulities not even taklen into account (production capacities, demography).



I lean myself out of th window and say it loud and clear: regarding germany: Baltic states, you are on your own, dont count on us.

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Have to admit I do have my doubts



Markus

[Dargo]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Have to admit I do have my doubts



Markus

^ Wishful thinking. "Even a Russia in 'total war' cannot compete with Western economic power if the West decides to unleash it", he says from 8th minute on. And then more. Thousands of tanks, thousands of armored personell carriers.



That is the reasoning of the desperate. What he lines out there simply will not happen.


Also, I thinkj he fundamentally misjudges the psychology of Putin. If - and to me by now that is a very big "if" - Putin even still is alive. I have my doubts on that.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

^ Wishful thinking. "Even a Russia in 'total war' cannot compete with Western economic power if the West decides to unleash it", he says from 8th minute on. And then more. Thousands of tanks, thousands of armored personell carriers.



That is the reasoning of the desperate. What he lines out there simply will not happen.


Also, I thinkj he fundamentally misjudges the psychology of Putin. If - and to me by now that is a very big "if" - Putin even still is alive. I have my doubts on that.

Russia can not compete with the west economical Russian economy is about the size of Italy you think it can compete with top 10 economies nah it just lost about 1 million of its workforce going out of Russia these are highly educated people. Russia has had already problems with shortage of its workforce life expectancies are low it is highly corrupt and has no forced workforce like it had under Stalin. In history, many thought they could beat the US economical boi they were wrong. This war will end exactly as Western policymakers want it to end.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia can not compete with the west economical Russian economy is about the size of Italy you think it can compete with top 10 economies nah it just lost about 1 million of its workforce going out of Russia these are highly educated people. Russia has had already problems with shortage of its workforce life expectancies are low it is highly corrupt and has no forced workforce like it had under Stalin. In history, many thought they could beat the US economical boi they were wrong. This war will end exactly as Western policymakers want it to end.

So what...? None of that affects the outcome of this running war.
They will see this war through, you'll see. Totgesagte leben länger. And Russia has been claimed economically and financially dead a record number of times durign the past 18 months. But the robustness of the Russian economy in this war has been fundamentally underestimated. They tried to summon Russian collapse by wreiting about it.

Russia will pay a heavy price for this war, dont get me wrong. Economcially, financially, and especially demographically and socially and psychologically. But all that comes later and will not decide the running war. I red soem tiem aago that now even a clear majority of mothers and wifes of fallen Russian soldiers support the war and believe the kremlin narrative: all the West is up against them. NATO already wages war on Russia. Its all a NATO plot. This already is WWIII. Russia was attacked and defended itself. The vast majority believes this bull.

[Jeff-Groves]

Russia is bleeding the West of Money and supplies.
You think people in the USA are not tired of costs going up and Billions going to Wars?

[August]

Originally Posted by Jeff-Groves

Russia is bleeding the West of Money and supplies.
You think people in the USA are not tired of costs going up and Billions going to Wars?

We're bleeding Russia far more than they are bleeding us and i'm ok with continuing to support the Ukrainians in their fight for national survival.