Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Russia in the hope that the enemy will tire or run out of ammunition that's not working because of the ammunition supply to Ukraine is sufficient to hold them back the technology that Ukraine is developing and continues to develop is destroying them before they can move Russia are still moving tanks in daylight they're still moving tanks without camouflage they're still charging across open fields they're charging across their own minefields so it's the Russian general operational procedures shambolic at the lowest levels they don't know how to proceed they really don't they're still stuck in systems that were in place in the 1960s.

And they haven't learned anything in the last 20 months except in electronic warfare where they're using their electronic capability to bring down Ukrainian drones in at the same time the Ukrainians have up the game they've started to develop their own ballistic missiles they've started to develop their own long range drones so they're not relying on the rules laid down by the West of you can only use it in the combat zone you can't use it against Russian military targets over the border, so they're moving forward, and they're moving forward very quickly, the word stalemate aggravates me somewhat because I think it's a word that's being planted to make people in the US particularly in the House of Representatives to say oh well it's all a waste of time it's a waste of money why are we doing this they're not really important to us the isolationists and the Putin supporters that exist their so they've got this strange situation where you've got the world starting to believe that it's all coming to a grinding halt.

Well, it isn't coming to a grinding halt Russia can no longer operate their Navy in the Black Sea, the North Coast of the Sea of Azov now under Ukrainian fire they can't operate their they've had to move their Air Force and their helicopters back to Russia there's a great deal to be said that's successful. Doom and gloom never won any war. There's far more aspects to this issue than just oh we can manufacture this many bombs the Americans and Europe are upping the anti it's not that easy to switch from ploughs to swords again they've got to get the staff they've got to get the machine they've got to put it together that's a process that can't be done in as quickly as what many people would like. How remarkable is that, that Russia, with three times the population, all the resources in the world, every single advantage, air superiority that the Russians are not able to do any more than they've done. The Russians have not destroyed a single convoy or train in two years, bringing equipment and ammunition from Poland into Ukraine.

I rather trust in NATO generals experienced in former wars than a Swiss that country that not fought or committed to any conflict for centuries a people that stays out of any conflict cowardly but when they can profit supply anything to fascists that rejected yews in WWII seeking a way to survive genocide except when you bring enough gold to buy your way in Switzerland a policy not ended as of today.

[Dargo]

Ukrainian defence forces repel largest number of assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka fronts
A total of 64 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces occurred on Saturday, 18 November, with Ukrainian forces repelling 23 Russian assaults on the Marinka front, 6 on the Kupiansk front, 7 on the Bakhmut front, and 3 on the Shakhtarsk front.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 18 November

Details: Over the course of the day, Ukraine’s defence forces clashed with Russian forces 64 times. Russian forces carried out 5 missile strikes and 58 airstrikes and deployed multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) 33 times to attack the positions of Ukrainian troops and civilian settlements. Russian forces also deployed Shahed-136/131 drones to attack critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine on the night of 17–18 November. Ukraine’s air defence intercepted 29 out of 38 Russian attack drones.

Russian attacks killed and injured civilians and damaged private residential houses and other civilian infrastructure targets.

There were no significant changes on the Volyn and Polissia fronts.

Russia continues to maintain its forces near the Ukrainian border on the Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna fronts and is conducting sabotage and reconnaissance operations, shelling Ukrainian settlements from Russian territory, and amassing mines and other defensive constructions along the Ukrainian border. Russian aircraft struck an area near Stepok (Sumy Oblast). Around 20 Ukrainian civilian settlements came under Russian artillery and mortar fire, including Kliusy, Yanzhulivka and Mykhalchyna Sloboda (Chernihiv Oblast); Znob-Novhorodske, Rozhkovychi and Chuikivka (Sumy Oblast); and Ohirtseve, Hatyshche and Pletenivka (Kharkiv Oblast).

On the Kupiansk front, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Synkivka and to the east of Petropavlivka (Kharkiv Oblast), with Ukrainian forces repelling 6 Russian assaults. Russian aircraft struck areas in the vicinity of Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka and Ivanivka (Kharkiv Oblast). Russian forces also deployed mortars and artillery to attack more than 10 settlements, including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Kotliarivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv Oblast).

Russian forces carried out offensive operations near Torske (Donetsk Oblast) on the Lyman front and airstrikes near Bilohorivka (Luhansk Oblast) and Verkhnokamianske, Terny and Spirne (Donetsk Oblast). Around 15 Ukrainian settlements, including Makiivka and Nevske (Luhansk Oblast) and Yampolivka, Torske, Dibrova and Spirne (Donetsk Oblast), came under Russian mortar and artillery fire.

On the Bakhmut front, Russian forces carried out assaults near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk Oblast), with Ukrainian forces repelling 7 Russian assaults. More than 20 civilian settlements, including Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Druzhba and Pivdenne (Donetsk Oblast), came under Russian mortar and artillery fire.

Russian forces carried out several unsuccessful offensive operations to the east of Keramik, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove and Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast) on the Avdiivka front, with Ukrainian forces repelling 23 Russian assaults. Russian forces also deployed aircraft to strike areas near Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast) and deployed artillery and mortars to attack around 15 civilian settlements, including Keramik, Berdychi, Orlivka, Avdiivka, Sieverne and Pervomaiske (Donetsk Oblast).

On the Marinka front, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful aircraft-supported offensive operations near Marinka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast), with Ukrainian forces repelling 21 Russian assaults. Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka and Yelyzavetivka (Donetsk Oblast) came under Russian fire.

Russian forces also conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the vicinity of Staromaiorske (Donetsk Oblast) on the Shakhtarsk front, with Ukrainian forces repelling 3 assaults. Russian forces carried out airstrikes near Vuhledar (Donetsk Oblast). Around 10 civilian settlements, including Vuhledar, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva and Urozhaine (Donetsk Oblast), came under Russian artillery and mortar fire.

On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Robotyne and Novoprokopivka and to the west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). More than 25 civilian settlements came under Russian artillery and mortar fire, including Luhivske, Orikhiv, Novodanylivka, Robotyne, Kamianske and Prymorske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

On the Kherson front, Mykhailivka, Tiahynka, Veletenske and the city of Kherson (Kherson Oblast) came under Russian artillery fire.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defence forces are continuing to pursue the offensive on the Melitopol front and to carry out offensive operations on the Bakhmut front. They are inflicting personnel and equipment losses on the Russian forces and wearing them out all along the frontline.

The General Staff also reported that around 20 Russian soldiers deserted the 144th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces near Krynky (Kherson Oblast).

Russian occupation forces are continuing to steal from Ukrainian civilians and are appropriating grain grown by Ukrainian farmers. Russian occupation authorities in Berdiansk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) are using ships to try and take wheat stolen from Ukraine to Russian ports.

Over the course of today, Ukrainian aircraft carried out 6 airstrikes on clusters of Russian military personnel.

Units of Ukrainian Rocket Forces and Artillery struck a Russian command post, a cluster of Russian military personnel, weapons and equipment, an artillery system, and an ammunition storage point. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/18/7429373/

[Dargo]

[Skybird]

The M-55 weas developed in the mid- and late 70s and early 80s.


And a speaker of the ukrainian defence ministry has put the reports about a Ukrainian landing on the other side of the Dnjepr at Cherson into numbers. "3-5 km wide and deep", she said. By the huge headlines and loud reporting I honestly was left a bit unimpressed by that. In the past ten days or so it was given the impression the Russians were fleeing by the many thousands and far, far away from Cherson. But a retreat of this small scale sounds more like a tactical regrouping to adapt to small changes in the tactical situation, than a huge landing and breaching. And while Ukraine may have the opportunity to use this area to bring more material and men over the river, it seems it struggles to find both to send them over in sufficient quantity.

The best answer to why the Russians are so crazy at Avdiivka is the upcoming Russian elections. They need a victory of any kind for the propaganda of how well the war runs.

I wonder if Putin still is alive? Since some time now I have a nagging voice in my head telling me he is not.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Think they will not be able to avoid total conscription sooner or laster. Rather sooner. Will not be a service to majo morale and skill levels, but they need hingher numbers than currently. Hopwever, most of the younger generations and the best suited ones they already have consummed. Acceptance age has been raised several times over the past 16 months or so.



Horrible situation for those getting the notice and were not already willing to go at all.



https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/19/e...ntl/index.html

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Think they will not be able to avoid total conscription sooner or laster. Rather sooner. Will not be a service to majo morale and skill levels, but they need hingher numbers than currently. Hopwever, most of the younger generations and the best suited ones they already have consummed. Acceptance age has been raised several times over the past 16 months or so.



Horrible situation for those getting the notice and were not already willing to go at all.



https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/19/e...ntl/index.html

Taking these problems in to consideration one would say that time is on Russian side of the conflict.

However how eager is Ukraine to make a peace treaty under Russian terms ?
and
However how eager is Nato in seeing Russia winning the war ?

I myself see lights in the end of the tunnel. They will give order to general mobilization, where any one between 16* and 70 are being called to duty

* Those who's under 18 and over 65 will be placed behind the frontline helping with different task there.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

* Those who's under 18 and over 65 will be placed behind the frontline helping with different task there.

You are no battle hardened trooper at 16 or 65. Reflexes and stamina goes down with age, so does stress resistence, sense of balance, memory. Health.



Germany had child soldiers 80 years ago. They were not really of help.



The young adult men of preferred age are either already drawn and left again or were killed or crippled, or have fled the country.


Heck, russia's population is four times bigger than that of Ukraine, if not bigger. And no matter what these endless super dooper videos claim, nobody can convince me the Russians suffer four times as many KIAs and MIAs than the Ukrainians. They suffer much higher losses, but not higher on that scale, and not war-decidingly more. Compared to the potentially available force pool, Ukraine suffers more, despoite higher Russian losses.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You are no battle hardened trooper at 16 or 65. Reflexes and stamina goes down with age, so does stress resistence, sense of balance, memory. Health.



Germany had child soldiers 80 years ago. They were not really of help.



The young adult men of preferred age are either already drawn and left again or were killed or crippled, or have fled the country.


Heck, russia's population is four times bigger than that of Ukraine, if not bigger. And no matter what these endless super dooper videos claim, nobody can convince me the Russians suffer four times as many KIAs and MIAs than the Ukrainians. They suffer much higher losses, but not higher on that scale, and not war-decidingly more. Compared to the potentially available force pool, Ukraine suffers more, despoite higher Russian losses.

I was thinking more in terms of helping with civilian defence and help farmers for those under 18 or over 65.

Have to admit that Ukrainian losses is due to the size of the population far more severe than the Russians losses.

Losing 10.000 Ukrainian is in percentage higher than the Russian ditto.

From memory
Ukraine had something with 100-200.000 active soldiers and around 1 million reserve.
How many there are left today I can't say.

Back to the young ones. In Sweden and Denmark every 16-18 years citizens are called upon civilian defence service.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

The guests may not already have left Ukraine's invitation dinner, but more and more of them start to look for where their coats hang.

https://www.dw.com/en/could-a-ukrain...ato/a-67428580

However, its also part of the truth that currently nobody is able to show a realistic way how to win the war by defeating Russia on all Ukrainian soil and driving its troops out. I do not see seriosu ambitions ot realise this - just alibi actions to no getting accused of doing nothing. Support by quantities and qualities needed to win the war I do not expect becoming reality anymore - mainly due to lacking Western will but also due to lacking Western reserves and production capacity.

The ultimate defeat, even if it is still a long way off and the war will then become a frozen conflict, is beginning to loom. And that means bad things for Europe.

Countries like Austria are still fully engaged in buying Russian gas until this very present time. Hungary not even mentioned. Half of Europe, it seems, still hangs on the Russian gas drip, or what?

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You are no battle hardened trooper at 16 or 65. Reflexes and stamina goes down with age, so does stress resistence, sense of balance, memory. Health.



Germany had child soldiers 80 years ago. They were not really of help.



The young adult men of preferred age are either already drawn and left again or were killed or crippled, or have fled the country.


Heck, russia's population is four times bigger than that of Ukraine, if not bigger. And no matter what these endless super dooper videos claim, nobody can convince me the Russians suffer four times as many KIAs and MIAs than the Ukrainians. They suffer much higher losses, but not higher on that scale, and not war-decidingly more. Compared to the potentially available force pool, Ukraine suffers more, despoite higher Russian losses.

They don't need to fight, they just need to bleed.

In Russia's case, this has turned into a war of attrition. As long as they have people to throw into the grinder they can keep pressure on Ukraine.