Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

War is also economics if one million men from Russia labour force is gone it will hurt the production hugely of the all not so big work force. Russia's stock was big very big now we see shortage and its need to go to North Korea this is the same for human resources sending them without anything to survive has no use it is counterproductive you do not win battles with this tactic. Russia has no ability to create any change on the fronts for years in Ukraine, it can only hope for Trump to win the next election.

I thought that these jobs was taken by the Russian women. Like it happened in US during WWII

I could be wrong though

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I thought that these jobs was taken by the Russian women. Like it happened in US during WWII

I could be wrong though

Markus

Russia now is not the USSR than. In Ukraine also women do the jobs of the men USSR had a gulag work force of +2 million Russia does not have that amount of forced work force and in the war production you need highly qualified personnel it's not the tractor factory building the tanks any more same goes for management does the Russia mafia have the good dedicated managers to build and guide this. Russia is a dictatorship, but not of the level of the Stalin one corruption is far worse than in the USSR not a surprise when the elite are kleptocrats the soviets were not a lot were real communist zealot believers now their god is greed. Putin deal is you get rich so support me Stalin deal was I (communist party) am right if you do not follow there is a gulag make up your mind or die horrible for 10,20 years.

[Dargo]

Saying EU does want to let Ukraine win is not the story the EU supports the Ukraine economy the US military not strange or otherwise this is how it is everybody does their bid their capable to do the EU policy in the world is another than of the US both ways are OK and helps Ukraine and that's what counts. Wars are not only won on the battlefield economics plays a great part in WWII it was decisive.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Russia must not win offensives it further mounts. It just must hang on to what it has already occupied. The defences of these have stopped the Ukrainian offensive, and the failed offensive 2023 will hardly ever be repeatable again, material-wise. With what would Ukriane do it? It will not et sucha moutn dsof materia., again, and it lacks even more recruits in the forseeable future, than there were in winter and spring this year.

Next year will be easier for Russia than this year was. This year was easier for Russia than last year. For Ukraine, it was exactly the other way around.

Its a dicatorship in Russia, not a democracy. Its easier to simply use a command top down to deal with the hardship of war. The majority of Russian people support the war, I red some weeks ago. Again: the majority of the civil Russian population was reported back then to support the war. Unbelievable, but still... There will be no revolution or uprise in Russia.

Wishful thinking leads nowhere. The support volume from the West that Ukraine would need to win the war, I do not see materialising, no matter who wins the US elections. And European nations alone will not be capable or willing to do it. We have now 21 months of experience with how the West handles the war. And these 21 months of experience are not encouraging. Wishful thinking dominates the perception and decision making. Wishful thinking will not win the war.

There is a lack of political will and determination in the West to really win the war and see Russia lose it. In fact the West is afraid of Russia loosing it. And Paris and Berlin do not want Ukraine to clearly win it.

The West is perceived to be dragging its feet when it comes to the weapons needed to quickly eject Russia from occupied territory. But like I said I don’t think a quick end is the West’s objective. You mentioned long ago states don’t extend themselves unless it benefits them. Look at Haiti it’s a toilet bowl that nobody is interested in helping because it has absolutely nothing to offer the benefactor.

In order to understand what the future of Ukraine is I think we first need to understand what the West’s motives are for supporting Ukraine, in other words what’s in it for us? Freedom and democracy? Liberating Donbass? Sure it might be nice if it happened but it’s hardly the primary objective. Crimea probably is though in order to control the Black Sea, and gaining access to all those natural resources in Central Asia and don’t forget pipelines baby. To get that we need to drain Russia’s military and political influence and with China on the other side we need to secure Ukraine as a spring board to projecting into Eurasia. I just don’t see us going anywhere or abandoning that, it’s just too important of an opportunity.

With western assistance, Ukraine just needs to make it so untenable that Russia soldiers give up, pack up and go home so they can get something to eat and stay warm. Given time Donbass might even just get fed up enough and want to come back into the fold all on its own too. Ya never know.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

The West is perceived to be dragging its feet when it comes to the weapons needed to quickly eject Russia from occupied territory. But like I said I don’t think a quick end is the West’s objective. You mentioned long ago states don’t do much of anything for anyone unless it benefits the assisting state. Look at Haiti it’s a craphole that nobody is interested in helping because it has absolutely nothing to offer the benefactor.

In order to understand what the future of Ukraine is I think we first need to understand what the West’s motives are for supporting Ukraine, in other words what’s in it for us? Freedom and democracy or liberating Donbass isn’t the objective might be nice if it happened but I don’t think it’s really all that important to us. Crimea is in order to control the access to the Black Sea, and gain access to all those natural resources in Central Asia and don’t forget pipelines baby. To get that we need to drain Russia’s regional military and political influence and we need Ukraine as a spring board to projecting into Eurasia. I just don’t see us going anywhere or abandoning that, it’s just too important of an opportunity.

Ukraine just needs to make it so untenable that Russia soldiers give up, pack up and go home. Given time Donbass might even just get fed up and want to come back into the fold all on its own too. Ya never know.

The west has not lost in its military power, it has grown Russia lost not only on the front they are losing out of their reserves it can not exploit its reserves the Black Sea fleet has lost 15 ships and damaged 12 it does not control the Black Sea any more if we and Ukraine can go on like we do now we make of Russia a regional power it will totally change globally said Ukraine does the killing here we only need to send support.

[Dargo]

Bulgaria is a good friend to have, with its abundant Soviet weapon stockpiles and large defence industry. It may be the key to Ukraine's success. But Bulgaria has had to walk a fine line, trying to covertly support Ukraine without provoking Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/despite-...ine-with-arms/

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Dargo

The west has not lost in its military power, it has grown Russia lost not only on the front they are losing out of their reserves it can not exploit its reserves the Black Sea fleet has lost 15 ships and damaged 12 it does not control the Black Sea any more if we and Ukraine can go on like we do now we make of Russia a regional power it will totally change globally said Ukraine does the killing here we only need to send support.

You’re right I don’t think the west has lost anything, I just think rather than the noble slogans of defending freedom and democracy or a quick end to Russian occupation. The goal has always been to bleed Russia of its will, economy, political influence and military strength. Russia cannot compete against the combined GDP of the west and eventually Putin is out of the equation opening the door to the Black Sea again and of equal importance Central Asian natural resources placing us in direct competition for it with China. Also all of Europe and particularly Ukraine will benefit from it by having greater long term security. That’s what I think is in it for the western states supporting Ukraine and that’s why I think those western states will not abandon support for Ukraine. Unfortunately victory for Ukraine isn’t going to happen overnight and I’m not so sure it will come about according to their immediate plans or desires.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Russia must not win offensives it further mounts. It just must blah [...]

It just has to ****ing die
Really, what side are you on? You want to win the Lord haw-haw prize?

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

You’re right I don’t think the west has lost anything, I just think rather than the noble slogans of defending freedom and democracy or a quick end to Russian occupation. The goal has always been to bleed Russia of its will, economy, political influence and military strength. Russia cannot compete against the combined GDP of the west and eventually Putin is out of the equation opening the door to the Black Sea again and of equal importance Central Asian natural resources placing us in direct competition for it with China. Also all of Europe and particularly Ukraine will benefit from it by having greater long term security. That’s what I think is in it for the western states supporting Ukraine and that’s why I think those western states will not abandon support for Ukraine. Unfortunately victory for Ukraine isn’t going to happen overnight and I’m not so sure will come according to their plans.

In the long run democracies will survive over authoritarian systems yes with Russia isolated, weak we must go on do not think anything good comes out of Russia not seen that in centuries not from any czar or soviet leader, and we will never see any good from Stalin grandchildren. This is an essential fight between democracy and authoritarianism Ukraine has been bleeding several times in history for its independence, they will win because they have the will.

Originally Posted by Stalin created

The "Soviet man" is characterised by his tendency to follow the authority of the state in its assessment of reality, to adopt an attitude of mistrust and anxiety towards anything foreign and unknown, and is convinced of his own powerlessness and inability to affect the surrounding reality; from here, it is only a step towards lacking any sense of responsibility for that reality. His suppressed aggression, birthed by his chronic dissatisfaction with life, his intense sense of injustice and his inability to achieve self-realisation, and his great envy, all erupt into a fascination with force and violence, as well as a tendency towards "negative identification" – in opposition to "the enemy" or "the foreigner". Such a personality suits a quasi-tribal approach to standards of morality and law (the things "our people" have a right to do are condemned in the "foreigner").

Homo sovieticus is accustomed to living in relatively bad conditions, is ready to face difficulties, constantly expects the worst; approves of the actions of the authorities; seeks to prevent those who violate habitual forms of behaviour, fully supports the leadership; has a standard ideologized consciousness; a sense of responsibility for his country; is ready to sacrifice and is ready to condemn others to sacrifice.

This new man still is Russia that never has gone after the fall of communism in 1991, both in Russia and in the West, there was hope that Western moral values would take root in Russia, and the country would eventually become one of the developed countries of the world. But, this point of view did not take into account the degree of destruction of the Russian economy, the magnitude of mental exhaustion of people and the depth of moral decay after 70 years of Soviet power. No one had any idea what type of state would replace the USSR and what it meant to "be Russian".

[Dargo]

One of the main goals of the operation is to push the Russian occupation forces as faraway from the west bank (Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast) as possible to protect the civilian population from constant shelling. https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelensk...-50369200.html

[Reece]

Originally Posted by Catfish

You want to win the Lord haw-haw prize?

I'd like to win that!

[Dargo]

In politics, we trust? Pffff bloody kleptocrats. "A group of Russian nationals were able to donate to newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson's campaign in 2018 by funnelling the money through a U.S. company." – Ewan Palmer, Newsweek https://www.newsweek.com/house-speak...butina-1838501

Germany begin talks on bilateral security guarantees

“Germany is our reliable partner and one of the leaders in financial, military, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine,” Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva said. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/...ty-guarantees/

Take a moment to remember the initial odds when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Literally no one could predict that Ukraine will hold and repel the attack. Everyone said Kyiv would fall in 72 hours. Ukraine won the fight for its existence. Could anyone predict that Ukraine will be fighting Russia TWO YEARS in, and killing over a THOUSAND Russian troops EVERY DAY?

No. Not at all. This is all bizarre how it all turned out, but Ukrainian spirit and love for freedom do magic. In reality, it's all covered in Ukrainian blood, but Ukraine won against all odds, and continues to WIN against Russia, a million times stronger enemy with so much more resources.

This is Ukrainian spirit fighting in there. This is so much worth fighting for. https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1725665187414659124

People thinking Russian losses are propaganda, Avdiivka offensive equipment loss numbers as of 17 November 2023 In summary: 241 Russian losses vs 18 Ukraine losses. Spreadsheet showing the losses in detail https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2018403157 these are visually confirmed.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

In reality, it's all covered in Ukrainian blood, but Ukraine won against all odds, and continues to WIN against Russia, a million times stronger enemy with so much more resources.

Right now Ukraine wins battles while loosing the war in the long game. And Russia suffers high losses that nevertheless are not sufficiently high enough to stop it from winning the war in said long run.



Ukraine got where it is today due to the weapon deliveries from the US, which by trend are declining since months, and from Europe, which also cannot be repeated like they were one year ago.



I want Ukraine to win as much as you do. But I also know that without the material support from the West Ukraine cannot win. And we already did not give them what they needed already in the past months, we gave only too much to die while it was too little to live and win. What leads you to assume that this pattern all of a sudden will change against the odds and against the economic realities?


Ukraine still can win. But then it would need much more material than it got in the whole past 21 months together. Or in the words of Colonel Reisner: every day a fully loaded supply train with ammo would need to arrive in Ukraine. Plus an awesome lot of tanks. Plus aircraft. Plus sophisticated electronics. And weapons. And it must rain men in Ukraine that they can recruit. They run out of men. Those who still live, are often since months and motnhs in constant action, they must be worn out, they mist be done, and disillusionised. They are no superhumans, you know.



Wishful thinking does not win wars. Nor do pathetic propaganda videos.


The most likely scenairo as I see it at the rpesent: in second half of 2024 Ukraine will be willing, with tight lips, to negotiate terms with Russia, because it simply has no other choice. And Russia will keep huge chunks of what it has bitten out of Ukraine. Until the West sends tremendous and decisive ammounts of weapons, amo, evertyhing - much more than so far. MUCH MORE THAN SO FAR. And now the hundred million dollar question: what nation, including the US, is economically, financially, materially and last but not least: politically capable to do that? No matter who wins the US elecitons, the US will most likely drastically cut back aid to Ukraine. Trump because he wants it, Biden because he cannot overocme the internal resistence anymore. No, I do not see the big miracle happening anymore. Europe babbles itself to death instead.

And since you quoted the Germans, Dargo, the Germans babble a lot. They are just not capable to put military deeds to where their way too big babblemouth is. German "security guarantees" are worth sh!+, Germany is not capable to serve them.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]