The CHN/ China thread

[Rockstar]

Big trouble in little China? Might be why there’s all the Sabre rattling going on as it’s an excellent distraction from internal economic and political problems.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/the-hi...-in-xis-midst/

On the eve of China’s October 1 National Day celebrations, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) expelled former vice minister for public security Sun Lijun – not for corruption but serious political crimes almost tantamount to something like an attempted coup.

Specifically, he was accused of “serious violations of discipline” and building cliques and cabals to take over a key government department.

Sun, apprehended about a year ago, is guilty of “overweening political ambitions” and “arbitrarily disagreeing with central policy guidelines,” the mighty party disciplinary committee CCDI wrote in a statement on its official website.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/


China can take Taiwan already now, just that the military price to pay would be high. By 2025, so says Taiwan, the price will be considerably lower.

[Jimbuna]

Tensions with China are at their worst in 40 years, Taiwan's defence minister has said, warning of the risk of an accidental strike between the two.

Chiu Kuo-cheng's comments came after China sent a "record number" of military jets into Taiwan's air defence zone for four consecutive days.

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state. China, however, views Taiwan as a breakaway province.

It has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.

While Chinese jets have not been flown all the way to the island, Mr Chiu warned that there was a risk of a "misfire".

Taiwan's air defence zone, which it monitors for threats, extends over an area that covers the Taiwan Strait and a large swathe of the Chinese mainland. They consider jets crossing an unofficial line between China and Taiwan as an incursion.

Mr Chiu also warned China would be capable of mounting a full-scale invasion of the island by 2025.

He was speaking as a parliamentary committee in Taipei considered a multi-billion-dollar defence spending bill to build missiles and warships.

Acknowledging that China already has the capacity to invade, he said such a move would get easier in coming years, though he did not elaborate.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58812100

[Jimbuna]

China's President Xi Jinping has said that "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fulfilled", as heightened tensions over the island continue.

Mr Xi said unification should be achieved peacefully, but warned that the Chinese people had a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism.

In response, Taiwan said its future lay in the hands of its people.

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.

Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58854081

[Skybird]

For the reason of power of symbolism I believe the war will launch before the middle of this century. In 2049 China will have its 100th birthday jubilee, and until then I am quite sure they want the Taiwanese question solved once and forever.


I think it is absolutely realistic and possible that it will happen already in the next ten years.



Maybe Taiwan better gets nukes. Serious. It has run poprgrams for developing nuclear, chemcial and biological wepaons, but the US pressed it to give them up in the 80s. Libya did so, too, and paid the price. The Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, and paid the price. Iraq gave them up, and paid the price. No reason to be optimistic for Taiwan. I think they will not survive as a free nation into the second half of this century.

[Jimbuna]

Most probably correct

[mapuc]

There's an election this Sunday in Taiwan.

From what I know there's two side in Taiwan-China friendly faction and Taiwan friendly faction.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan will not bow to pressure from China and will defend its democratic way of life, President Tsai Ing-wen has said in a defiant speech amid heightened tensions over the island.

Her remarks on Taiwan's National Day came after China's President Xi Jinping vowed to "fulfil reunification".

China denounced Ms Tsai's speech, saying it "incited confrontation".

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.

Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58860365

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by 2daze WSJ opinion

The West won the Cold War without firing a shot, but the intensifying struggle with China may not end so well. The record number of Chinese military aircraft flying near Taiwan last week raised alarm bells— and questions.
For decades China’s leaders bided their time, knowing that a military confrontation with the U.S. would end badly. But during the past quarter-century, China steadily ramped up its investment in the People’s Liberation Army. Between 2010 and 2020, spending rose by 76%, and the PLA’s war-fighting ability has vastly improved. In recent years, the Pentagon has staged multiple war games testing U.S. ability to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The American team has lost nearly all of them.
This increase in China’s capabilities has coincided with shifts in outlook. Statements from President Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders characterize the U.S. as a declining power mired in division and dysfunction. They doubt America’s will to use force overseas, a mindset not discouraged by our disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan. Beijing believes that China is within reach of replacing the U.S. as the world’s dominant power.
In this context, a once-unthinkable event—a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan— has become possible, perhaps even likely. Senior U.S. naval officials have been especially blunt about this. “To us, it’s only a matter of time, not a matter of if,” Rear Adm. Michael Studeman, director of intelligence for the Indo-Pacific command, said earlier this year.
Not surprisingly, a multi-front debate has broken out about the future of U.S.-China relations. Optimists believe China has more to lose than to gain from a military conquest of Taiwan—and that Beijing’s leaders understand this. International trade, still their economic lifeblood, would be hurt,
and countries who have stayed on the sidelines would take America’s side.
Pessimists retort that Mr. Xi has infused a new sense of urgency into reunifying his country and that it won’t be easy to walk back the nationalism he has spread. Not unlike Hitler's one greater Germany concept...
For decades the U.S. has preserved “strategic ambiguity” about its response to a prospective Chinese attack on Taiwan. A public announcement that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense would blow up the terms of the Shanghai Communiqué that began the process of normalizing the U.S.-China relationship in 1972 and of the Joint Communiqué re-establishing full diplomatic relations in 1979.
On the other hand, stating that America views this issue as an internal matter would encourage China’s leaders to treat Taiwan as a “breakaway province” and to reunify their country through any means necessary.
Many experts argue that the policy of strategic ambiguity has outlived its useful life and should be replaced with a hard guarantee to defend Taiwan from attack. Others reply that ending the policy would inflame nationalist sentiments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and encourage Beijing to escalate.
This is a tough call that rests on an assessment of Mr. Xi’s intentions. If he is considering military action in the belief that the U.S. would not come to Taiwan’s aid, an explicit statement of our commitment to Taiwan’s security could act as a deterrent. On the other hand, if Mr. Xi is bluffing by whipping up nationalist sentiment for domestic purposes, an explicit security guarantee could make him lose control of the sentiments he has roused.
The disquieting outcome of the Pentagon’s war games has sparked another debate: If the Beijing’s growing belligerence coincides with declining U.S. military power. U.S. lacks the military wherewithal to deter China from invading Taiwan, what should we do about it? If current trends continue, China’s navy will be more modern and significantly larger than America’s by 2030.
The Hudson Institute’s Seth Cropsey has characterized the U.S. Navy’s current “divest to invest” strategy as misguided: Reducing the fleet of older, larger vessels to build smaller, more numerous ones will leave us dangerously exposed in the middle of this decade, the moment when many analysts believe the danger to Taiwan will be at its peak.
Instead, Mr. Cropsey argues, we should retain most of the current surface fleet and supplement it with items we can build—or buy from allies— fast enough to make a difference, a strategy that would require an annual increase of about 30% in the Navy’s shipbuilding budget. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies can improve Taiwan’s defense capabilities, and Taiwan can do more to defend itself.
No sane person wants war between China and the U.S., but a combination of clashing ambitions, strategic miscalculations and mutual misperceptions could land us in one, particularly if America doesn’t take the necessary steps to persuade Mr. Xi that we are not what he believes us to be—a declining power lacking the means and the will to defend our friends.

Bottom line: Osama bin Laden called the US a paper tiger and he was not incorrect; China, with it's economic crises, ie the Evergrand fiasco, housing price collapse, confiscation and imprisonment of Chinese entrepeneurs. et al; has raise its birthrate policy to 3 children instead of one...in a country with 1.4 billion of the world 8 billion population and expansionist Belt and Road to the Indian boarder, Hong Kong, Africa mineral wealth and the South China Sea is as much a paper dragon imho. America needs to nuclear weaponize the WWIII fuse which will be Taiwan; numbers preclude any other solution Mutual Assured Destruction is still in effect??!!

[Skybird]

Playing out MAD to the penultimate end - for a small island and its eocnomy in the distant pacific and offshore a big rival? No, no chance the US will do that. Why risking American cities and millions of US civilians - for Taiwan...? And why do you think is China massively increasing the number of land based ICBM silos? ICBMs are no weapons to be used against a brigade on the battlefield.

[mapuc]

Skybird is right-USA would rather give up Taiwan in a conflict with China than open Pandoras box.

USA and it's allied in the area will defend Taiwan with conventional weapons, but use of nukes-No in this I'm convince.

I fear it though-If China fail in taking Taiwan.

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Playing out MAD to the penultimate end - for a small island and its eocnomy in the distant pacific and offshore a big rival? No, no chance the US will do that. Why risking American cities and millions of US civilians - for Taiwan...? And why do you think is China massively increasing the number of land based ICBM silos? ICBMs are no weapons to be used against a brigade on the battlefield.

...and thereby lies the problem; it won't be a brigade as we learned in 1951 when China crossed the Yalu and pompous MacArthur got his butt kicked by SunTsu philosophy with little Russian "numbers have a cachet of their own' mentality. With the huge so called Sino fishing fleet as transport...were well behind in the numbers game. Moreover as with 1939 appeasement of your beloved Führer, the West's primary mistake was in not responding to China's outright uncontested takeover of Tibet in '59. Sparta pulled same routine in c. 600BC against neighboring Messinia...just for hoplite food, while the rest of Greece stood by. That, coupled with failures at nation-building the 10-year-war in 'Nam and the 20-year-war in Afghanistan puts 'Merica and its toadying NATO allies down three strikes. Remember Von C. "In all thing be strong; whenever possible increase fire power, in this case nukes; and never count on the enemy doing what your plan calls for them to do...in this case us not following the Sino-global Road & Belt domination plan...to find its Kaiser-like 'place in the sun'.... "In war everything is simple but sometimes the simple thing is difficult"; the 'paper tiger's has got to make the 'paper dragon' blink first. 400,000,000 'Mericans (weakened by Covid and bickering)cannot make 1,400,000,000 officially overbreeding Chinese do that with manpower alone. Toadying N.Korea's fatboy and his master, Mr.Xi, love to rattle the nuke sabre; the West, with 'Nam, Phillipines, India, Japan and Australia, all frogs croaking around, or very near the South China 'pond' must rattle mo'bettah....

Originally Posted by mapuc

Skybird is right-USA would rather give up Taiwan in a conflict with China than open Pandoras box.
USA and it's allied in the area will defend Taiwan with conventional weapons, but use of nukes-No in this I'm convince.
I fear it though-If China fail in taking Taiwan.

Markus

We opened Pandora's box in 1945...and now the nuclear genii assails us with N.Korea, Pakistan, India and probably Iran. As my proctologist Dr. Pogo, says: "We have met the enema...and it was us." Moreover, the head of Pakistan's nuclear weapons development who died this week, also sold the technolgy to god-knows-who else, and had to resign...God is laughing at us. Good thing I'm old; 'cause the spinning mudball is rapidly worsening!

[mapuc]

I meant a situation where the opponent retaliate with same weapon type. In -45 Japan had no nukes and could not retaliate.
So the box may have been open a little bit then.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Skybird is right-USA would rather give up Taiwan in a conflict with China than open Pandoras box.

USA and it's allied in the area will defend Taiwan with conventional weapons, but use of nukes-No in this I'm convince.

I fear it though-If China fail in taking Taiwan.

Markus

Going to war is easy all we need is another ChiCom virus to infect the world and I’d be willing to bet we and our Allies be happy to go to war over Taiwan.

Taiwan Relations Act

Public Law 96-8 96th Congress

An Act

To help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the United States by authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SHORT TITLE

SECTION 1. This Act may be cited as the "Taiwan Relations Act".

FINDINGS AND DECLARATION OF POLICY

SEC. 2. (a) The President- having terminated governmental relations between the United States and the governing authorities on Taiwan recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979, the Congress finds that the enactment of this Act is necessary--

(1) to help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific; and (2) to promote the foreign policy of the United States by authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan. (b) It is the policy of the United States-- (1) to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people on the China mainland and all other peoples of the Western Pacific area;

(2) to declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern;

(3) to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;

(4) to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;

(5) to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and

(6) to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan. (c) Nothing contained in this Act shall contravene the interest of the United States in human rights, especially with respect to the human rights of all the approximately eighteen million inhabitants of Taiwan. The preservation and enhancement of the human rights of all the people on Taiwan are hereby reaffirmed as objectives of the United States. IMPLEMENTATION OF UNITED STATES POLICY WITH REGARD TO TAIWAN

SEC. 3. (a) In furtherance of the policy set forth in section 2 of this Act, the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.

(b) The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan, in accordance with procedures established by law. Such determination of Taiwan's defense needs shall include review by United States military authorities in connection with recommendations to the President and the Congress.

(c) The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom. The President and the Congress shall determine, in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger….

[mapuc]

Been reading paragraph b and c. and some question popped up.

§ b) "The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan"

Lets play with the scenario President is Dem and congress is Rep. Would they agree ?

§ c) "The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom."

Would they agree on how dangerous a Chinese attack on Taiwan is for the US interest in the area ?

Markus