Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

I create this new thread because I know that sooner or later Neal will ask us to close the old thread and create a new.


I'm going to bump it now and then to keep it on first page.

It's up to Neal and/or Jim to decide when the old thread shall be locked.
(this text ^ will be changed)

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I create this new thread because I know that sooner or later Neal will ask us to close the old thread and create a new.


I'm going to bump it now and then to keep it on first page.

It's up to Neal and/or Jim to decide when the old thread shall be locked.
(this text ^ will be changed)

Markus

Why?

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Why?

Why !?

Do you mean why Neal or Jim close the original thread then it has to do with bandwidth.
Or
Why I created this new part 2 thread.
I've wanted to be the owner of the next chapter of our Ukraine discussion too.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Why !?

Do you mean why Neal or Jim close the original thread then it has to do with bandwidth.
Or
Why I created this new part 2 thread.
I've wanted to be the owner of the next chapter of our Ukraine discussion too.

Markus

Ok that answers my question

[Skybird]

Good idea, Markus, sooner or later Neal would have done it, too. 12 thousand posts, 800 pages qualify for that, I assume.

Reason is that the posting counter of a thread somehow negatively affects the traffic burden. Neal has then locked an old thread and opened a successive one severla time sin the past.

Maybe just lock the other thread, Neal, Jim?

[Jimbuna]

Okay, I have locked the thread on this single occasion but please be advised this is not the norm. Neal usually informs me when he wants me to lock threads.

Carry on.

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter was destroyed by a Ukrainian Stugna guided missile. This helicopter is vulnerable as it has to guide its missiles all the way to the target and while its doing so it can’t move.

https://twitter.com/albir2024/status...10960801140736

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It would appear the war criminal continues to carry on the same way he has previously.

A fair assessment below.

Putin exploiting war crimes loophole to ‘bully and blackmail' the West over grain deal

Vladimir Putin is exploiting an "anomaly" in international humanitarian law to "bully and blackmail" Ukraine and its allies, as well as the global south, a leading war crimes prosecutor has told Express.co.uk.

The Russian autocrat declined to extend the Black Sea grain deal on Monday (July 17) when it came up for renewal and on Thursday (July 20), his Ministry of Defence said that any vessels crossing the "grain corridor" would be considered as carrying military cargo, while they would treat the country of its flag as a participant in the conflict on the Ukrainian side.

Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin clarified this warning on Friday (July 21), saying they now viewed the Black Sea as a "zone of increased military danger" and would inspect all vessels crossing the area.

Despite assurances from Putin to provide poor countries in Africa with free grain - nations such as Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya are reliant on Ukrainian shipments - experts maintain that this blockade "will undoubtedly lead to civilians in the global south literally starving".

But while the repercussions of their blockade will be devastating, unless Russia fires at foreign vessels they will not be found guilty of war crimes or crimes against humanity, according to a prosecutor documenting Russian war crimes.

Blockades are "on the face of them lawful, even if they impact civilians", Wayne Jordash, a British lawyer with more than 20 years in the fields of international human rights and humanitarian law told Express.co.uk.

They are "anomalies" in international humanitarian law, dating back to a time when it was "acceptable to starve civilians to maintain a siege", he said.

While Russia's aggressive missile strikes on Ukrainian ports in the past week, destroying more than 60,000 tons of grain and wrecking farm storage buildings, is a crime of war by virtue of its targeting of civilian areas with no military value, Mr Jordash said there was no legal recourse to pursue charges for its concurrent blockade.

If they simply "stop and search" ships, that would amount to a "legitimate" move in terms of international humanitarian law, he said.

Notwithstanding this legal loophole, Olya Korbut, who specialises in monitoring Russian militarisation of the Black Sea, said Russia was trying to "bully" and "blackmail" the Collective West with its blockade.

She told Express.co.uk: "While trying to absolutely destroy the Ukrainian economy and replacing Ukraine in the world top-five grain exporters, as well as blackmailing the Collective West with food security issues, Russia also bullies other countries in its usual manner."

Speaking on Thursday night, she noted that Turkey and Greece, with more than 70 percent of the share of vessels in the "grain corridor", were particularly susceptible to Russia's bloody gambit.

Putin is hoping to force the West to soften its sanctions on Russia, particularly with regard to its exporting of ammonia and fertilisers, formerly included in the Black Sea dea, by pressing on countries such as Turkey, as well as taking advantage of the needs of impoverished regions in the global south reliant on Ukrainian grain.

On Friday, this tactic showed the first signs of paying off. As the Russian Defense Ministry said their navy conducted drills that simulated action to seal off a section of the Black Sea, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Western countries to address Russia's demands to restore the grain corridor.

"Russia has some expectations. If these are overcome, Russia is in favour of the active work of this grain corridor," said Mr Erdogan, who helped negotiate the deal.

He said "Western countries need to take action on this issue" or risk raising global food prices, increasing famine and unleashing new waves of migration.

In no uncertain terms, Mr Erdogan's comments evinced the claims that Putin was, indeed, "blatantly extorting" Ukraine, the West and the global south, as one former US ambassador told Express.co.uk.

More concerningly, though, they also showed how quickly these tactics could affect action; just four days after Putin pulled out of the deal, the responsibility for Russia's devastation already appears to be shifting.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...cbc5bbcb&ei=20

[Jimbuna]

[Jeff-Groves]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

It would appear the war criminal continues to carry on the same way he has previously.

A fair assessment below.

I'd say he's in league with Camillia Harris to reduce the World Population.

[Skybird]

While some insist on the truth of the claim that Russia has assembled 100,000 troops and 900 tanks in the East to form a new front and others put this counting in doubt, it is confirmed that, as CNN put it, "Russian forces push along "almost entire front line" in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region".

Things do not run good for Ukraine. My impression definitely is that it gets worse and worse. The Russians have used the time Germany and other superhesitent countries have given them to build some formidable defences. Currently Russia forces the Ukrainians to play the game at Russia's terms, not the other way around.

Western production of artillery shells still runs slow, in some producing countries still seems to stay bogged own. Thats unbelievable. Unbelievable. I think quite some politicians still have not heard the starting shot(s). Where the will to improv exists, it gets then tackled by global shortages of certain supplies needed for producing these rounds.

[Catfish]

^ Which is why Ukraine should strike right into the heart of the russian Rodina.
As long as Russia is allowed to amass military forces just behind the border which will never be harmed ...
Hell i wonder why NATO is not getting involved more. So Russia is threatening with nuclear war? This works from both sides. Do not let him Putin be the one to escalate all the time. Take the initiative. The way NATO behaves right now is nothing else than chickensh!t.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

While some insist on the truth of the claim that Russia has assembled 100,000 troops and 900 tanks in the East to form a new front and others put this counting in doubt, it is confirmed that, as CNN put it, "Russian forces push along "almost entire front line" in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region".

Things do not run good for Ukraine. My impression definitely is that it gets worse and worse. The Russians have used the time Germany and other superhesitent countries have given them to build some formidable defences. Currently Russia forces the Ukrainians to play the game at Russia's terms, not the other way around.

Western production of artillery shells still runs slow, in some producing countries still seems to stay bogged own. Thats unbelievable. Unbelievable. I think quite some politicians still have not heard the starting shot(s). Where the will to improv exists, it gets then tackled by global shortages of certain supplies needed for producing these rounds.

Looks like Ukraine could lose the war in two ways

1. Lack of manpower
and/or
2. Lack of material.

How eager is USA and NATO in preventing Russia from winning the war in Ukraine ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ Which is why Ukraine should strike right into the heart of the russian Rodina.

^ With what...???

Colonel Reisner, whom I still appreciate for his sober, cold-blooded realistic assessment, was ion RBB and expressed his opinion of that the Ukraine ahs been trappoed in a war of attrition nin the beast, solowly loosing to Russia, and that the Eastern front is really not working well for the,m but quite wel for the Russians. The Russians advance. He also detected a chnage in Western moral that causes it to slowly turn away form Ukraine. I prediced lasta autumn that this would happen sooner or later in the secondhalf of this year - and the earlier the longer one has to wait for Ukrainian successes.

To be honest I think we currently witness a phase that amounts to a preliminary decision for the outcome of the war. The offensive is simply not igniting. And it is losing the war for Ukraine in the sense that ultimately Russia will be able to keep large parts of the conquered territories and the Ukrainian economy will have suffered absolutely devastating damage from which the country will not recover for generations. There are calculations that show that Ukraine will lose a quarter of its population to death and emigration. A quarter! In an already overaged society.

And has anyone looked at the figures of Ukraine's public finances in recent times? Devastating. Absolutely hopeless.

Frankly, I am increasingly inclined to think that Ukraine would lose the war even if it managed to expel all Russians from all occupied territories. Its financial and demographic backbone in the long run is either already broken - or about to be.

Russia (not Putin- Russia!) will not let up. And the West will not deliver and will not do what is needed: it cannot, and it will not. Ukraine is dependent on the West, for better or worse. Washington's interests are not Kyiv's. They never have been.

Nobody wants to hear this, the show of illusions must go on. But I stick to it nevertheless.

3-4 brigades still held back, but their artillery deployed already. I increasingly think these do not matter, due to the terrain. It mercilessly favours the Russians in their role, favours their chosen style in this battle: artillery, missiles, gunships, CAS. Little to no cover for the advancing Ukrainians and mechanised forces. Too few mine clearing and bridging equipment (which to identify and kill the russians apparently have become cunning experts). Mines, artillery delivered mines where yesterday there have been none.