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Old 07-22-19, 01:35 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by Jimbuna View Post
The real victims in this mess.
I agrree. It has angered me many times with how much non-chalance the fate of hostages of African pirates has eben ignored in Europe already, while mayn fo nthem returned traumatized, got tortured, and spend days and weeks in fear for theiur life, where victims of staged executuions, and so forth.


Arm those damn merchants during transit. Missiles, drones, heavy mahcine guns. At clkose rnage even RPG-style rockets can cause havov with helicipters and RG speedboats. What international law says is irrelevant if Iran already has started to violate it. Laws and treaties are two-way streets. Armed resistance of troops sttioned on traders could buy the time needed to vector in armed US drones. One lonely British frigate or destroyer is chanceless to beat the clock if the Irnaisn can chose the time and place and pick their prey at their liking.



Or radio the attackers a lecture on what you epxect them to not do. That radio protocol really had me grinnign from one ear to the other. Sorry, Jim, but the embrassement of your country for this is well-deserved. Aftewr hte marines caught some years ago and led around like poodles on lines, I would have expected better preparedness if still sailing into harms way.



Do not expect a big European rescue mission. The EU is about punishment for Brexitannia, have you forgotten? As long as no othe rEuropean natiosn lose ships in the gulf, I see little chance that you will find much support from EU nations. I even heard a comment on radio short time ago that said that Britain, due to its Brexit ambitions, suffers from Iranian hands a well-deserved demonstration of what it means to reject the block.



And Trump? He is about creating opporunties for American business to bite off big heaps out off your econoymnand public budgets. This "special relaitonship" betwehne the UK and the US, is a historic thing only, but was a lie alread in 2003. And today, it is even more so. Not to mention that Britain could not afford such milkitary adventures anymore.



Sorry, I do not want to hurt your feelings or offend you country, Jim, I just stubbornly talk frankly and open. You may take into accoutn that i do the same about Germany, the EU, the US. Its not just cheap Schadenfreude.
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Old 07-22-19, 01:58 PM   #107
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I just had the crazy idea that May maybe did not react to the possibility of the to-be-expected retaliation by Iran just so to leave an especially big and foul egg in the nest on her desk as welcome present for an ingoing new prime minister Boris Johnson?
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Old 07-22-19, 02:33 PM   #108
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Sorry, I do not want to hurt your feelings or offend you country, Jim, I just stubbornly talk frankly and open. You may take into accoutn that i do the same about Germany, the EU, the US. Its not just cheap Schadenfreude.
No foul play alleged Sky, you are well entitled to your opinion and as I've said earlier, much of it has a ring of truth at times.

What I do find a tad ironically humourous is the fact you're a German talking about so-called military weaknesses of the UK when your own country no longer has the means to defend its own borders. The majority of the Luftwaffe, the parts that are still airworthy were all at RIAT over the weekend

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I just had the crazy idea that May maybe did not react to the possibility of the to-be-expected retaliation by Iran just so to leave an especially big and foul egg in the nest on her desk as welcome present for an ingoing new prime minister Boris Johnson?
That thought had also crossed my mind
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Old 07-22-19, 03:31 PM   #109
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What I do find a tad ironically humourous is the fact you're a German talking about so-called military weaknesses of the UK when your own country no longer has the means to defend its own borders.

Absolutely! I am aware of that and did not intend to imply that us wonderful Germans would do it better, in fact we do it even worse. The armed forces are weak and impotent, and new fence ministress claimed she wants to raise the budget to those 2% of GDP as Germany promised in 2014 (Steinmeier, SPD), and immediately she got attacked by the SPD that said that new "weapon craziness" (original quote) would not be the right thing to do. That it is a treaty oblogation that Germany viollates since years and that had been accepted and promsied by a SPD minster back then, nobody mentions anymore.


Well, the players in this episode at Gibraltar and Hormuz are Iran and - Britain, not Germany. It would be better if there were a European alliance to form convoys, but as a matter of fact Britain stands alone currently, and todays annoucnement by Hunt that there will be a European mission, is just his own plan and hope so far - none of the other nations have agreed with him so far.And we do not now if Hunt sitll will be there after tomorrow.


What we nations in the west all suffer form, is age. We are overaging, old, weakening societies. Even with sufficient funding, we would find it increasingly diffiicult to find the young men willing to serve for a bad wage. The few youngster there are know only peace and take it for granted, and the main part of society is old and at an age where it is no longer capable or willing to commit itself to military needs and thinking. The armed forces need to compete with business and industry for the young people there are, and lack of talented trainees has become a potentially neck-breaking problem in Germany (thats the drive behind Germany'S migration policy, but the hope that integration-willing, well-trained experts and specialist workers only would come, has been demystified by now - in the long run migration will cost us more money than we can financially benefit from it to stabilize social security systems. We have a deficitary net effect from it - and now the eocnomy is even cooling and badly trained migrants will be amongst the first getting fired - and then getting wellfare. Merkel messed it up completely.



Old nations and societies tend to stay away from war adventures, it is the young men that becom easily excited about it.The Budneswehr doe snot find enough recruits. The nroxal navy has similiar problems. The US air force is said to run thin on pilots. The demographic problem is the same throughout the West, it seems.


https://de.scribd.com/document/33962...ohn-06-02-2017

^ From 2017, but still in trend and tendency valid.



Practically all the West has a war index below or at 1.00, while the hotspots of violence and aggressive expansion all are multiple factors higher. It also how huge the part of the world is that is in extreme volatility. Quite discouraging.


https://www.weeklystandard.com/gunna...-the-war-index

http://time-price-research-astrofin....ar-gunnar.html
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Old 07-22-19, 06:19 PM   #110
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Is this a good solution to the ongoing problem ?

https://news.yahoo.com/us-tells-uk-r...s25favigtthFKB

Quote:
Jeremy Hunt, the Foreign Secretary, on Monday announced a joint European maritime mission on the Strait of Hormuz in the aftermath of a British tanker seizure in the Gulf
They have mentioned it on Danish tv. Saying England have send some kind of request to the Danish government.

And the speaker also said

We can also expect the same from USA.
(I know what my Danish friends are going to discuss the next few month ahead)

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Old 07-23-19, 01:34 AM   #111
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It would be a good idea to deploy an international force, just to make some points clear to Iran.
I just wonder who.. France, Italy or any other EU nation comes to mind.
Germany could send.. wait..

Maybe the "Gorch F o c k".
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Old 07-23-19, 04:20 AM   #112
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It would be a good idea to deploy an international force, just to make some points clear to Iran.
I just wonder who.. France, Italy or any other EU nation comes to mind.
Germany could send.. wait..

Maybe the "Gorch F o c k".
Probably the best way forward

Quote:
Mr Hunt said the UK would develop a maritime protection mission with other European nations to allow ships to pass through the area safely.

The foreign secretary secured support for the initiative from both French and German foreign ministers on the phone on Sunday evening, the BBC has been told. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49076294
The video report in the link below pretty accurately sums up what this is all about.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-...of-two-tankers
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Old 07-23-19, 06:34 AM   #113
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I agree, escorted convoys and multiple times as many warships in the region, plus helicopters.



But that the UK wants it does not mean that it will happen the way they intend it. France with its imperial self-perception maybe follows, but others like Germany - dont bet on it.


-----


I just read that China has bunkered astronomic volumes of Iranian oil which it has smuggled secretly out of Iran. If this oil finds its way back on the market, a price shock is th emost likely result, that much their stockpiled oil reserves now are. It shows that Iran is not as isolated as Western sanctioneers want to think of it. Who nows what the Russians are doing for Iran - they share borders.
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Old 07-23-19, 06:44 AM   #114
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We do not share a land border with Iran, we do share the Caspian sea and there are two railroads down there. So yes, we could be supplying all sorts of things to Iran if need be.
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Old 07-23-19, 07:20 AM   #115
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Petrol prices thus far remain stable but would soon rise if Iran decided to block the Strait.

That in itself would probably bring about a military response from the West.
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Old 07-23-19, 09:45 AM   #116
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What's wrong with going over there to take her back even if you have to sink her?

Remember the Barbary Pirates
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Old 07-23-19, 01:28 PM   #117
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The UK certainly has the means but I very much doubt if she has the will.
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Old 07-23-19, 03:37 PM   #118
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kewl a cutting out expedition, Im in!
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Old 08-04-19, 04:13 AM   #119
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German news magazine FCOUS reports that already on Wednesday another tanker was hijacked by IRG. They will publish more details soon.

Trump pushed Germany into self-embarrassment by officially asking for German military contributions to any maritime operaiton in the Straight. Its of course also an attempt to bring the Europeans into the American anti-Iran operation. Still, The German position makes me grin. Of course, he knew that, Germany will say No and has said No, and will look bad in that of course. Well deserved.

Some German parties said there should be a European mission that does not provoke Iran and "does not leave the control in the Street to the Americans". Others warned that any sending of military shps inot the Strait would needlessly spill fuel into the fire and would provoke Iran". Well, we hold our breath for their verbal reaction to the latest Iranian action. I expect nothing less than a ultra-determined statement that sends shockwaves through the global diplomatic world! Serves Iran right.
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Old 08-04-19, 04:42 AM   #120
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Well the official version is that Iran is not liked, and the threat to Israel is only one of the reasons. Oil is another..

And while we can certainly expect anything from Iran, the first real move of confrontation has been made by the UK, pretending to act under EU law (while indeed playing poodle for the US). I mean how many tankers have passed Gib heading for Syriah before without being capered?

They are all playing their game, and while i do not especially like the Mullahs they are there to stay, and you will not get them out without direct war.
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