SUBSIM: The Web's #1 resource for all submarine & naval simulations since 1997 |
03-26-15, 12:07 PM | #31 |
Eternal Patrol
|
When people say they "don't believe in luck", do they mean "Luck" as controlled by outside supernatural forces (aka the Roman Goddess Fortuna) or just that sometimes random unforeseeable events happen to us? I don't believe in the former either, but certainly the poor guy who has a plane fall on his house is indeed a victim of "bad luck". When it's not your fault and nothing you did could have prevented it, it's random chance, but can also be described as luck.
In the case in point, the US forces certainly gave themselves all the advantages they could. Even so, both sides were searching vast areas of open ocean. Did the US Navy have advanced knowledge of the proper area to search, or was it random chance that led them to find the Japanese carriers at the opportune moment? If the former, then they certainly tipped the scales with technology and energy. If the latter, then it was still luck...meaning random chance, not supernatural guidance by the fates.
__________________
“Never do anything you can't take back.” —Rocky Russo |
03-26-15, 02:04 PM | #32 |
Engineer
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Central Arkansas
Posts: 211
Downloads: 55
Uploads: 1
|
Captains, I'm afraid you'll never convince me that there is any such thing as luck in this world. It just doesn't exist.
If a plane falls out of the sky onto your house, it was probably induced by the mechanic who overlooked something on the aircraft to cause it to fall. Maybe pilot error. It's all hypothetical, who knows, but it wasn't luck. Because it was your house, well, those were just the odds of it happening, but luck wasn't involved. Unfortunately, we will never agree... Conversation Over and Out. Now, let's enjoy the sim.
__________________
a.k.a. Rick Silent Hunter 4 Gold v1.5 Intel core 2 duo @ 2.33GHz nVidia Gforce 8800 GTX 768mb 4 gigs ram w/4 gig virtual memory Windows XP Pro w/SP 3 on a 32 bit system At my age, 'Happy Hour' is a nap! |
03-26-15, 02:24 PM | #33 |
Eternal Patrol
|
I'm sorry, but I find that a little dismissive. You started a great thread with a very good question. You then stated an opinion, which I thought was also good. I attempted to explore it. Not bash it, or even argue with it. Just discuss it. Now you want me to ignore it and "enjoy the sim". But your thread really has nothing to do with the sim. That's cool, it's what this section is for. I just wanted to explore the possibilities.
__________________
“Never do anything you can't take back.” —Rocky Russo |
03-26-15, 04:14 PM | #34 |
Navy Seal
|
I think you also failed to read the actual post, because Torplexed very clearly said "luck was deliberately minimized", which is an indirect way of saying "the USN didn't leave much to chance and planned carefully, so they could make sure that things would go right and the Japanese would fall for the trap." Otherwise, actual luck didn't enter into this discussion until you'd mentioned it. And I think you'll have seen some excellent posts from several people - thanks to Kazuaki Shimazaki for also bringing in a very valid point about the Washington treaties - that actually did a great job of explaining some of the very logical historical issues here.
|
03-26-15, 04:21 PM | #35 |
Seasoned Skipper
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Pollard, Oklahoma
Posts: 679
Downloads: 6
Uploads: 0
|
On a tactical/operational level, the Japanese higher up's tendency to develop overly complex schemes that relied a bit too much on their interpretation of how Allied forces would react and to split their forces into much smaller parcels also likely had something to do with many of their losses.
__________________
"Stop sounding battlestations just to hear the alarm." |
03-26-15, 10:23 PM | #36 | |
Gefallen Engel U-666
|
Luck and the real players who make it happen
Quote:
__________________
"Only two things are infinite; The Universe and human squirrelyness; and I'm not too sure about the Universe" |
|
03-27-15, 12:07 AM | #37 | |
Let's Sink Sumptin' !
|
Quote:
While I certainly agree that McCluskey was a resourceful first rate naval airman worthy of all accolades, I think in many respects his decision shows how luck evens out. First of all, McCluskey's group was one of the two SBD groups that hit the Japanese carriers more or less simultaneously. His group had to stretch the limits of their fuel because a known Japanese course change, which occurred after his group launched, and was not reported to him via radio. Had it been reported to him, he would have found the target anyhow. So, that outcome (McCluskey finding the targets) was predicated on two lucky "breaks" that favored the Japanese and one that favored the Americans. The two pro-Japanese breaks were the fortuitous unplanned course change, and the US decision to not report the course change to McCluskey. The pro-US break was McCluskey reasoning that the Japanese destroyer lagging behind was an element of the carrier group. The destroyer Arashi was there to hunt for the US sub Nautilus with which contact had instigated the Japanese course change, so you can't lay the observation of the Japanese destroyer as a lucky break. Had the US sub not been there for the DD to be dealing with the Japanese would not have changed course at all. In that event McClusky would not have had to extend his search. The *other* (non-McCluskey) group was directed to the correct position because it was launched after the Japanese course change was known. No matter how you slice it, the Japanese lose at least two carriers in the initial US attack, even if you cut McCluskey out of the equation entirely. Which is basically the result that the Japanese obtained in their pre-operational wargame of the plan (the infamous wargame in which Admiral Ugaki interfered with the umpire's results and re-floated the Akagi, because he didn't like the results). Most of the events in battles that are attributed to luck can be more usefully attributed to one of three things. 1.) A bad plan. 2.) A good plan badly executed. 3.) Insufficient assessment of enemy capability. It often seems that 99% of the time when someone invokes "luck" it is a case of CYA analysis. At Midway Japan suffered the consequences of both 1 and 3.
__________________
--Mobilis in Mobili-- |
|
03-28-15, 06:25 PM | #38 | |
Ace of the Deep
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,046
Downloads: 5
Uploads: 0
|
Quote:
|
|
03-28-15, 07:43 PM | #39 | |
Let's Sink Sumptin' !
|
Quote:
Yes, assuming he had sufficient ammunition in his magazines left, I suppose Kurita could have sunk some transports at the likely cost of his entire remaining force being annihilated. That was an exchange the Allies could well afford in 1944. Oh...and welcome aboard. After eight years.
__________________
--Mobilis in Mobili-- |
|
03-28-15, 08:16 PM | #40 |
Gefallen Engel U-666
|
welcome aboard!
MaDef!Your first post after a long silent run! It's LUCKY Torplexed and I were engaged in hot debate or you might have remained silent longer!
__________________
"Only two things are infinite; The Universe and human squirrelyness; and I'm not too sure about the Universe" |
03-28-15, 11:37 PM | #41 |
Let's Sink Sumptin' !
|
|
03-30-15, 08:54 AM | #42 |
Ace of the Deep
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,046
Downloads: 5
Uploads: 0
|
Failed was probably too strong a term, Japan was trying to take out the transport/supply ships, they needed to hold the Philippines (without it their supply lines for raw materials were cut). Halsey made a tactical blunder when he took all 60+ ships north without leaving a blocking force at the San Bernardino straights. it was luck that Kurita was turned back by Kinkaid's escort carriers.
|
03-30-15, 05:10 PM | #43 |
The Old Man
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 1,658
Downloads: 14
Uploads: 0
|
Another book recommendation: Kaigun: Strategy, Tactics, and Technology in the Imperial Japanese Navy, 1887-1941 by David C Evans and Mark R Peattie. Essentially a prequel to Shattered Sword, although it was written in 1997 by different authors. Very readable and lucid, even if it's almost 700 pages long.
|
04-14-15, 07:27 AM | #44 |
Torpedoman
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: WNC, USA
Posts: 115
Downloads: 7
Uploads: 0
|
Gracias on the suggestion, amigo
|
|
|