Nuclear Iran

[Otto Harkaman]

Iran is two months away from nuclear bomb

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/ga...ar-bomb-677672

IDF ramps up plans for strike on Iran’s nuke program

Military, defense minister believe a credible threat of an Israeli attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities is only way US will be able to negotiate better deal with Islamic Republic

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-ben...-nuke-program/

Iran had already been producing uranium enriched to just under 20 per cent (around 19.5 per cent) following a decision in December 2020, a deliberate step away from compliance with the JCPOA's terms. Enrichment to 60 per cent, however, is a significant escalation in enrichment operations.

https://www.sipri.org/commentary/ess...riched-uranium

[Otto Harkaman]

Biden's Iran envoy calls nuclear deal's fate 'one big question mark'

ROBERT MALLEY, the man President JOE BIDEN has tasked with putting the United States back into the Iran nuclear deal, isn’t supremely confident he’ll succeed in his mission.

“It’s just one big question mark,” he told NatSec Daily during an exclusive interview in his State Department office. Rejoining the multinational accord “is not something that we can fully control,” he said, citing a lack of engagement from the Iranians.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters...on-mark-494049

[Arlo]

Chicken Hawk Little.

[Otto Harkaman]

Thank you Arlo for your astute contribution to conversation.

[Arlo]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

Thank you Arlo for your astute contribution to conversation.

You're welcome.

[Skybird]

This round will be won by the Europeans. They always acted to illustrate how much they desire a nuclear armed Iran, and that is what they will get.

Once reality, they will be the first stressing that now one has to be pragmatic and that one has to talk and do precious profitable deals and that the embargo is useless now. Untie the trade! Change by trade!

[Skoaler]

God help us... Stuff is going wrong?

[Jimbuna]

German Frigate Neutralizes Houthi Missile Threat in Red Sea Mission

Operating in the Red Sea as part of an EU mission, the German frigate "Hessen" neutralized a missile fired by Houthi rebels towards a commercial ship, reported the German news agency DPA, citing British military sources.

The target of the Houthi rebels' missile attack was a commercial ship located in the Red Sea about 111 kilometres southwest of the Yemeni port of Hodeida.

Thanks to the actions taken by the German frigate "Hessen", one of the fired missiles was neutralized, while the other missed the target. The commercial ship was not damaged and is safely continuing its journey to the destination port.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...194cfbaa&ei=12

[Otto Harkaman]

What do the Houthi gain from the Red Sea conflict?

The Houthi movement derives several gains from their involvement in the Red Sea conflict:

1. Popular Support in Yemen:
   • By firing missiles at Israel or Israeli targets in the Red Sea, the Houthis earn popular support within Yemen.
   • This support helps them consolidate their authority, which originated from their 2015 coup against the Yemeni government1.
2. Political Leverage on the Global Stage:
   • Beyond the Middle East, the Houthis have secured political gains globally.
   • They recently reached an agreement with Russia and China to guarantee safe passage for Russian and Chinese shipping.
   • In return, these countries offer increased political support for the Houthi cause on the world stage2.
3. Demonstrating Military Capability:
   • The Houthis’ ability to employ Iranian weapons to interfere with and potentially shut down shipping in the Red Sea showcases their military capability.
   • This demonstration serves as a strategic message to regional and international actors.
   • Despite years of Saudi and Emirati airstrikes, the Houthis have maintained their behavior and territorial control3.

In summary, the Houthis gain both domestic and international advantages through their actions in the Red Sea, positioning themselves as a significant player in regional and global affairs.

[Otto Harkaman]

How has the Red Sea conflict affected regional trade and shipping routes?

The Red Sea conflict has significantly impacted regional trade and shipping routes. Let’s explore the consequences:

1. Disruptions to Global Commerce:
   • The Red Sea is a vital waterway for international trade, connecting the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea.
   • Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have caused major disruptions to commercial shipping.
   • These disruptions threaten a key maritime route essential for a significant share of global container traffic and over $1 trillion in annual merchandise1.
2. Immediate Contraction in Market Capacity:
   • Since November 2023, the Houthi group has targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea, leading to over 33 attacks.
   • In response, the US and EU have spearheaded Operations Prosperity Guardian and Aspis to safeguard navigation and trade flows.
   • However, challenges persist due to the Houthis’ deployment of drones, missiles, and vessel tracking capabilities.
   • As a result, there has been an immediate contraction in market capacity and a surge in shipping rates1.
3. Rerouting and Increased Costs:
   • Avoiding the Red Sea means abandoning one of the most common global shipping routes from Asia to Europe.
   • Approximately 40% of Asia-Europe trade normally transits the Red Sea.
   • Ships that shun the Red Sea must instead sail around the Horn of Africa, which can cost $1 million more round trip in additional fuel costs2.
4. Surge in Shipping Rates:
   • The Suez Canal, which handles about 30% of global container trade, has seen disruptions due to the Red Sea crisis.
   • Shipping costs have increased significantly, causing prices on some routes—particularly from Asia to Europe—to surge nearly five-fold.
   • This impacts global trade networks and economic stability3.

In summary, the Red Sea conflict has disrupted trade, increased shipping costs, and forced companies to reroute their vessels, affecting supply chains and global commerce123.

[Jimbuna]

US May Revoke Houthi Terrorist Label If They Stop Red Sea Ship Attacks

The US said it would consider revoking its recent designation of Yemen's Houthis as terrorists if the Iran-backed militants cease their shipping attacks in and around the Red Sea.
"My hope is that we can find diplomatic off-ramps," Tim Lenderking, President Joe Biden's special envoy for Yemen, told reporters in an online press briefing on Wednesday. "To find ways to deescalate and allow us to pull back, eventually, the designation and of course to end the military strikes on Houthis' military capability."

The comments suggest Washington is once more leaning on diplomacy after a nearly three-month-long campaign of airstrikes against Houthi facilities in Yemen. Those have failed to stop the group's missile and drone attacks against merchant vessels and warships, though the US says it has managed to degrade the Houthis' military capabilities.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-m...ttacks-5396896