The CHN/ China thread

[Skybird]

Since I would predict growing tensions and most likely ultimate confrontation with China, and the Taiwan issue slowly boils hotter and hotter and the Chinese economic acting affects us all already now and the cyberwar already is hotter than hot, I think a thread to collect all entries on these topics might be on order. After all, we have UK, US, and GER threads already.

[Skybird]

It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness.

That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" policy.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-i...ack/a-57102659

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" policy.

Best analogy I've read in a while

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[...] That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?
Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" policy. [...]

I somehow agree .. but is there still a policy?
Last i heard was that the artificial rivets (not needed, the hull is welded, just for show) of the Gorch Fock had costed 200,000 Euros, because they all have to be welded on the plates, every each and single one.
There can be no better way than fake rivets on a 100-year-old sailing ship, to impress any adversary..

But then
1. Why does german "freedom" has to be "defended" in the Hindukusch (Afghanistan, or in Taiwan, or near Alpaha Centauri?)
2. What has NATO to do with all of it, by definition of its founding.

Defence against bigger countries from military to hegemonial threats is always a a problem for smaller countries (therefore NATO and EU), and almost all other countries are smaller than China, or Russia.

Of course, what you mean is they should do their share in a bigger context of a military union alright, but other than Germany Taiwan is alone, so the comparison to Germany is not quite right. They can probably never build arms and maintain a military on a level compared to China, alone.

What if Taiwan had own nuclear weapons? (I guess the last US ones were removed in 1972?)

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Defence against bigger countries from military to hegemonial threats is always a a problem for smaller countries (therefore NATO and EU), and almost all other countries are smaller than China, or Russia.

Of course, what you mean is they should do their share in a bigger context of a military union alright, but other than Germany Taiwan is alone, so the comparison to Germany is not quite right. They can probably never build arms and maintain a military on a level compared to China, alone.

What if Taiwan had own nuclear weapons? (I guess the last US ones were removed in 1972?)

I of course understand the pressure limited demographic numbers mean for availability of young men to serve in the armed forces (Taiwan's Heinsohn war index 2017 was just 0.88, that of Hong Kong, while we are at it, at 0.56), but what the article refers to and what I wonder about is that the Taiwanese let things slide, end madatory armed service, and let trainign and morale and technological levels detoriate, while they should have an interets in achieving right the opposite. Israel has such problems, too. Look what they make of it. They do exactly the oposite. Mandatory service for men and women, mandatory retraining, keeping training and technology levels as high as they can.

[Skybird]

Does anyone know this novel already, "2034"? I think it sounds like one by Tom Clancy, Red Storm Rising maybe, but the readers' reviews at various sites are quite mixed, marking bad literaric style, shallow technological description and poor narrating. Not certain whether its worth my time...!?



https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54211065-2034


https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Ne.../dp/1984881256

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness.

That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" policy.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-i...ack/a-57102659

That's because USA has acted like what we here in Denmark call Curling parents-USA their allied has swept everything away in front of the Taiwan people.

They-the Taiwans know USA will rush to the scene as soon China do something wrong.

Taiwan is not exactly a toothless tiger them self-They just doesn't have the quantity in material and soldiers.

Don't know where Taiwan is when it comes to compare technologies with China.

Markus

[Skybird]

Taiwan operates Mirage 2000s and older-block F-16s, as well as an own development of wich I never have heard, they also bought Hawkeye AWACS, and still run some older F5s or F20s. Their army is 200.000. Their navy operates I think 2 Diesel submarines, some Kidd destroyers and Perry frigates. Nothing that could intimidate the Chinese with their technologically superior platforms and superior numbers.

As I see it, if the Chiense mean it serious they will sweep Taiwanese latforms on sea and in the air on day one. They will simply flood defences with their own numbers.

They have older verisions of Patriot, plus Stingers and Hawk.

The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation.

I thought for long time otherwise and thought they would be set up better, consideirng that they are a high tech nation. It seems I overestimated them.

As I see it, the US would need to throw its own weight in completely to defend Taiwan. I am still in doubt whether the US would engage with China in a full blwon war, just over Taiwain. The Chinese are a completely other league than anyone the US has ever fought against before, since WW2. Taiwan by itself has simply not the smallest chance to prevent an invasion. They can only hope delay total defeat by fightign the invaders on the island by using according tactics. But that means the island's cities and factories are at Bejing's mercy and can be wiped out at will.

I wonder whether Taiwan maybe has secret nukes?

[mapuc]

^ "The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation."

As I said it's the Americans fault they have acted like curling parents

Taiwan is not alone there are other countries who USA has swept away problems that may lay ahead.

Markus

[Reece]

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!!

[Moonlight]

Why don't you call it the "Armageddon" thread Skybird because that's what we're counting down to, these countries need to be in there for definite, China, Russia, USA, N Korea and Iran, all of these countries are wanting power beyond what they already have and nothing will stop them from attaining it.
I've been hearing the sound of distant drums for decades and this last year they've suddenly got louder and louder. One of those countries named above will be at the centre of it and once it begins there'll be no stopping it, so put aside all those daft ideas of colonising Mars or anywhere else and prepare thyself for the inevitable Nuclear apocalypse.

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

White Horse.
Then I saw when the Lamb broke one of the six seals, and I heard one of the four living creatures saying as with a voice of thunder, "Come." I looked, and behold, a white horse, and he who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer.

Red Horse
When He broke the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, "Come." And another, a red horse, went out; and to him who sat on it, it was granted to take peace from Earth, and that men would slay one another; and a great sword was given to him.

Black Horse
When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine."

Pale Horse
When the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.

[Dargo]

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would leave the island completely devastated, resulting in thousands of deaths among the Chinese, American, Taiwanese and Japanese armies. Moreover, the conflict would have no winner: both the Chinese and American navies would come out of the confrontation badly battered. This is according to a series of large-scale war simulations by a U.S. think tank. The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) institute says it has spent the past few months creating the largest ever series of war games of a possible conflict between China on the one hand and Taiwan and its American and Japanese allies on the other. This involved simulating no less than 24 scenarios of a Chinese invasion of the island in 2026. The results will be officially presented later today, but news channel CNN says it has already been able to see the results. Just about all the scenarios show that the Chinese attack attempt would fail and take a particularly high military toll on all warring parties. Even if the United States emerged victorious, its military would come out as violated as the defeated Chinese army.


Live; January 9, 2023, at 8:00 PM GMT+1

At least two American aircraft carriers would be left at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, as would 10 to 20 other ships. "The United States and Japan combined would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of military personnel. Such losses would damage American dominance on the world stage for many years," the report said. Some 3,200 US military personnel could be killed defending Taiwan's territorial integrity in three weeks. On the other hand, China would also suffer heavy losses, and the invasion would fail and leave China's modern navy "in ruins." "The backbone of its amphibious force is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are captured." The report assumes 10,000 Chinese military personnel will be killed, 155 combat aircraft lost and 138 ships sunk. So the Chinese toll would be higher than the American one, yet this could also be just a pyrrhic victory for the U.S., "with a higher toll than 'defeated' China in the long run."

For the 24-million-strong island itself, a Chinese invasion would obviously have the greatest impact. "The Taiwanese army would not be destroyed, but it would be largely defeated. It would have to defend a damaged economy without electricity and basic services." About 3,500 Taiwanese soldiers would die, and all 26 frigates and destroyers would sink to the bottom of the sea. Finally, Japan would lose more than 100 fighter planes and 26 ships. Relations between China and Taiwan have been on edge again since then-U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island last year. That visit indicated an implicit recognition of Taiwan's independence, which aroused great anger in China. The People's Republic of China considers Taiwan - which calls itself the only official "Republic of China" - a renegade province and integral part of its territory, the so-called One China principle that says there is only one China in the world. While the United States does recognize the Chinese position, as its main ally, it is also legally obligated to provide military support to Taiwan to preserve its independence.

Whether it will ever actually come to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, only Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to know. He does not explicitly rule out the scenario, but many experts call it unlikely at this point. "The Chinese summit could also implement a strategy of diplomatic isolation, operations under the radar and economic strangulation against Taiwan," the CSIS report sounds. The experts also point out that Taiwan's geographical position does not allow for an "Ukraine scenario," referring to how the West is gradually providing that country with resources and weapons to defend itself. "Once the war starts, it would be impossible to send arms and supplies to Taiwan. Whatever Taiwan will try to defend itself with, it will only be possible with material that is already there at that time."

[Skybird]

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.

Fine by me, only dunno how

[Jimbuna]

Threads merged.