NKorea threatens SKorea with nuclear war

[Castout]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

But unlike Skybird we include pictures occasionally with our walls of text.

But they are not half naked women still

Ack this thread will spiral out of control before I manage to catch up with the texts.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Castout

Ack this thread will spiral out of control before I manage to catch up with the texts.

"This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it"

Originally Posted by Krauter

...

Based on what I'm reading from Oberon and TLAM.. It all sounds like the next Tom Clancy novel in the making.

I know Oberon has done some writing, I submitted some of mine for the 3rd Subsim almanac (assuming that happens), maybe Obie and me should write the next hit techno thriller!

Originally Posted by Sledgehammer427

you know, they would prolly get mad at you for using a work computer TLAM

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

I can't recognize the movie

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

I can't recognize the movie

Fred Thompson, Daniel Davis, and Alec Baldwin... could only be...

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Fred Thompson, Daniel Davis, and Alec Baldwin... could only be...

I've seen that one 4 times!!!!!!:da mn:

yet I still can't recognize it

[Gerald]

And, Sam Neill

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Vendor

And, Sam Neill

I was listing the actors in the screen shot I posted. Sam Neill is not there.

[Gerald]

screenshot, right my friend ... I went a little longer in my thoughts,

[Reece]

Arm number one Asroc!!...
Don't worry commodore, the Bedford will never fire first!!
But if he fires one I'll fire one.... 'FIRE ONE!'

[Castout]

US envoy going to PyongYang to calm down North Korea.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11997172

[Oberon]

Admiral, Yankee One is on final. Rescue personnel are in place.
Pick up your left wing.
You're drifting left.
Power, power!
Wave off, wave off!
Eject, eject, eject!
Fire, Fire! Fire on the flight deck!


Hey, TLAM, if ever you want to do a duo on a novel, that sounds like a great idea

Imjin river looks like a good stopping point but I'm wondering if the initial
surge will have enough strength in it to force a crossing.
Not that the crossing will last, and it will be another weak point to hit supply
lines on, but I don't know, since it's that close to the DMZ, whether the DPRK
troops will have enough momentum by the time they reach it. It
depends on the alert level I guess.

By the way...I saw the trailer for Homefront today, and they said that the
storyline for World In Conflict was stretching it!

(sorry about the bizarre paragraphing...the copied text from HFRO broke it )

[Raptor1]

Hey, don't leave me out of the wild guessing!

Originally Posted by Oberon

But anyway, let's say that Kim does decide to throw away that card, and heads south. Well, first he's got to get across the most heavily mined and defended border in the world. Not easy. He can go under it, however the amount of troops that can go under the DMZ would be limited by the size and scope of the tunnels, and given that there is some pretty good equipment on the DMZ border for detecting earth tremors, I'd say that there aren't that many tunnels that aren't known by the ROK already, marked and probably ready to be exploded on top of any DPRK troops that mass through it.

I think the only possible use of tunnels is to either detonate large (Possibly nuclear, if they manage to assemble one of their nukes there without being detected) mines under the minefields or the insertion of special forces and raiding parties.

Originally Posted by Oberon

He could try blasting his way through, detonating a nuke under the DMZ would clear any mines and opposing forces out of the way...but then you've got only one clear exit route which would turn into Koreas own 'Hells Highway' through constant air bombardment.

You could theoretically safely move mechanized infantry through a gap detonated through the DMZ with nukes, but the supplies to that force will most likely not be able to get through. So the offensive will die out very quickly even without air interdiction.

Only if they could somehow get rid of the minefield on a broad front without the risk fallout and radiation poses to their forces, they might have some kind of chance.

Originally Posted by Oberon

Amphibious assaults around the DMZ are out of the question because the DPRKs surface navy is...lacking in the essential equipment, shall we say.
The last option is to human wave it, throw as many men as you can at it and force your way through with sheer manpower...viable, and likely to succeed but can be done only two ways. On narrow fronts, in which it incurs minimal initial casualties but then has the same problem as the nuke clearing option, or through a wide front in which high casualties are incurred but a greater section of the front smashed open.

I doubt human waves are a viable option for the DPRK. Their strength is in numbers, and they would throw that advantage away by wasting their troops like that. It would also demoralize their (Probably already demoralized) troops and reduce their fighting efficiency a lot very quickly.

Originally Posted by Oberon

In all scenarios, however, there is a massive loss of life on both sides in the opening stages, and that's before the ROK/US response. It is possible and likely that the DPRK can force several breaches in the DMZ, that much I will admit. However, proceeding beyond the DMZ becomes a bit more difficult. Forward units may reach Seoul, however their supply lines will be smashed to pieces by Allied air attacks and I'd estimate that the battle-line will stabilise about ten-twenty miles from Seoul.
Meanwhile inside the ROK, all hell will break loose, DPRK sleeper units will detonate bombs at army bases and airfields and inside Seoul and communications will be shot for about twenty four hours...however, the ROK and US will have been prepared for this and have secondary communications systems in place...if they're not prepared then I'd question what the US taxpayer is spending its money on TBH.
That twenty four hours of confusion will get the DPRK forces towards Seoul with high casualties along the DMZ as Allied units are overrun. However within that twenty-four hours a new defence line will be set up in front of Seoul. That line will hold, or if it doesn't the next one will. Soon the DPRK forces will find themselves low on ammunition and fuel. Small breakthroughs may occur along the defence line but the DPRK will lack the available material to exploit them because of lack of fuel and ammunition.
By this time, US reinforcements will be on the scene. DPRK subs and mini subs will try to hit the carrier fleets but most will be lost in the process, others though will be used primarily as commando landing craft, and will be hit by coastal sub-hunters.

If I had to guess...and this is pure guesswork here...I'd say that the front line will get this far:

---

Somewhere between the red and blue lines I'd say. I imagine Inchon would be a vital secondary target for DPRK forces because of its naval resupply ability for the Allied forces. So they'd probably make a drive south to try and get that.

I still hold that a direct assault on Seoul would not only be the most stupid move the DPRK could make, it would also be the most unlikely because of it and what is known about their operational doctrine. While Seoul is not a militarily worthless target, attacking it directly would be suicide. Not only does the terrain between Seoul and the DMZ include some pretty good defensive positions, it is also probably the location of most of the ROK/US reserve units. The heavy urban terrain of the city and surrounding regions would also be extremely hard to attack, drawing away resources that would be much more effective elsewhere.

If I were to guess the main axis of a North Korean attack on South Korea, it would go something like this:



(Sorry about the map, it was the best thing I could think of)

The envelopment of Seoul makes much more sense and will have a much greater (Though still very small) chance of succeeding. With naval supply, Seoul could still hold for a very long time, but it will be significantly less important if the North Koreans manage to occupy the rest of the country.

I think the most likely outcomes would be either the stopping of the North Korean attack on the DMZ if they attempt to attack on a broad front or slightly south of the DMZ if they manage to break through on a narrow front, specifically once their supply runs out. Failing that, the best bet would be stopping their operational maneuver units from getting through the front. If the ROK/US manage to fail stopping the DPRK from breaching the front and exploiting the gap, something which I consider extremely unlikely, then I think the DPRK might have some chances of achieving victory or at least advancing pretty far into South Korea.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Raptor1

If I were to guess the main axis of a North Korean attack on South Korea, it would go something like this:



(Sorry about the map, it was the best thing I could think of)

Looks like the area around Pochon and Cherowan would be a killing zone. There are several highway nexus that would be within range of artillery placed on those mountains and hills to the east and you have the North breaking though a highway that runs though a valley north of Route #60, bad idea since if focus the DPRK forces in to a confined area were air strikes and arty could be concentrated. South of that valley is another river were ROK/US troops could make a stand and inflict severe casualties. To accomplish that you are betting that the DPRK's engineers can make and hold 3 river crossings which I see as very unlikely in the event of US/ROK air superiority.

The area where the Imjin river enters the yellow sea north of Inchon would be a great assault point, since troops landing there have flat ground leading right in to Inchon and southern Seoul. Maybe even use the Han river to their advantage and ferry troops and supplies down it using that huge force of coastal and river fishing boats they have.

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Looks like the area around Pochon and Cherowan would be a killing zone. There are several highway nexus that would be within range of artillery placed on those mountains and hills to the east and you have the North breaking though a highway that runs though a valley north of Route #60, bad idea since if focus the DPRK forces in to a confined area were air strikes and arty could be concentrated. South of that valley is another river were ROK/US troops could make a stand and inflict severe casualties. To accomplish that you are betting that the DPRK's engineers can make and hold 3 river crossings which I see as very unlikely in the event of US/ROK air superiority.

The area where the Imjin river enters the yellow sea north of Inchon would be a great assault point, since troops landing there have flat ground leading right in to Inchon and southern Seoul. Maybe even use the Han river to their advantage and ferry troops and supplies down it using that huge force of coastal and river fishing boats they have.

I'm not saying they could accomplish anything, I'm saying it's about the most logical way I can see they could actually get anywhere with an attack in the west of the country.

Sure, it might be easier to attack in the terrain north of Seoul and Incheon (Though still not very easy), but such attacks will be facing much deeper opposition. The main point is that even if any attack focusing on the area directly north of Seoul achieves short-term success, it will be impossible to follow up on it without directly assaulting the urban areas around Seoul, which would be very nasty for the attacking forces.

EDIT: Also, I wasn't saying that North Korean troops would follow the arrows exactly as they are.

[Oberon]

That approach does make more sense than a Banzai charge on Seoul, but I still maintain that the limit of the advance will be short of Seoul, or even past Seoul, or much further than Chuncheon at the most, before the supply lines are cut and the advance bogs down.
The idea of detonating a nuke to clear the DMZ is pure supposition, and would indeed cause problems with irradiating the supply lines...however, this is a country that bases its value of human life at about the same level that Joseph Stalin once did...so quite frankly I could see DPRK soldiers being forced to drive through irradiated ground, just to get supplies to the front. They'd probably wash the trucks on the other side at a small FOB type area, but the drivers would have their lives cut in half, but what does it matter? There are plenty more where that came from!
Mines are an old concept that I admit I had discarded, although one would need a large amount of high explosives to detonate an area large enough to cover the DMZ...but I guess it's entirely possible.