The Glenn Beck/Goldline Scam (large graphic)

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by Sailor Steve

Good to hear. I don't mind seeing someone called out for this type of thing. I only object to the number of people around here who only see their side of the question.

"I'm right and you're stupid!"

Hah! Well this also has to do with economics. Since economics is my job, I take a special interest in it. When someone screams about "omg hyperinflation! buy gold now!" I just have to shake my head - deflation is the problem they're trying to stave off now.

Originally Posted by August

I've yet to meet anyone who considers Glenn Beck to be "infallible". Not even close. Most conservatives I talk to see Beck as overly dramatic and slightly crazy.

You haven't met my parents then.

[SteamWake]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

You haven't met my parents then.

OMG your parents are conservataves? That actually explains alot

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by SteamWake

OMG your parents are conservataves? That actually explains alot

Thanks to my mom, my inbox probably has more "Obama is a secret Muslim" emails than yours does.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Thanks to my mom, my inbox probably has more "Obama is a secret Muslim" emails than yours does.

Sounds like my father. I used to think he was a pretty good thinker, and perhaps he was, but now that he is pushing 80, he has changed. He forwards to me dozens of these type of E-mails. Most of them as so patently inaccurate that don't even bother responding.

Sometimes I think he is losing it in his old age.

[Sailor Steve]

Don't get me started! Oops, too late!

My dad is 82. I credit him (and my mom) with giving my my sense of humor. But...

A few months ago I called him. My stepmom told me he was in the shower. I said I could call back in a few minutes, but she insisted it was alright. So I could hear him shivering in the shower while we talked. More than once I said "Dad, dry off and get dressed. I'll call you back in a couple of minutes", and more than once I could hear him shivering some more as he said "No, it's alright."

I know getting old makes you forget things, but I never knew it actually makes you crazy.

[UnderseaLcpl]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Hah! Well this also has to do with economics. Since economics is my job, I take a special interest in it. When someone screams about "omg hyperinflation! buy gold now!" I just have to shake my head - deflation is the problem they're trying to stave off now.

Is it? I'm not so sure. Shortage of liquid assets is the problem they're trying to stave off now. I think you're equating deflation with remedies for insolubility, which is incorrect. Money is only worth what the goods, investments, and services associated with it are worth. What Washington is doing now is trying to pump money into the system with nothing to back it up in the hopes that the additional supply of currency will galvanize the market, which is pure Keynesian stupidity. Even worse, there are number of state programs recieving that new currency, and as we all know, the state never turns a profit on anything, ever. If deflation was the problem there would be GDP growth accompanied by a reduction in currency supply, which hasn't happened in quite some time. Rate of inflation has been fluctuating between .25% and 5% over the past few years, while real GDP and GDP growth have shrunk.

For the time being, the comparitive weakness of foreign markets (which we ruined through sheer economic pervasiveness) has held the US and the dollar aloft, but sooner or later it will be time to pay the piper. That currency is going to have to be reconciled with some kind of economic product sooner or later, and when that time comes, there will be nothing to exchange. Thus, the currency will lose value.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by UnderseaLcpl

For the time being, the comparitive weakness of foreign markets (which we ruined through sheer economic pervasiveness) has held the US and the dollar aloft, but sooner or later it will be time to pay the piper. That currency is going to have to be reconciled with some kind of economic product sooner or later, and when that time comes, there will be nothing to exchange. Thus, the currency will lose value.

With U-6 unemployment around 15 to 18% and the average hours worked in the basement, the resulting lack of wage inflation pressure means deflation, not inflation.

Simply put, If no one has money to spend we cannot have CPI inflation.

[Aramike]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Fraud is fraud, no matter how you want to explain it away. It should be pointed out.

Selling a valuable at a mark up is not fraud - its business.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by Aramike

Selling a valuable at a mark up is not fraud - its business.

From the graphic:

"It's not illegal to overcharge customers...The problem is that Goldline is taking would-be gold investors and turning them into coin collectors without their knowledge."

That's misrepresentation and fraud.

[Aramike]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

From the graphic:

"It's not illegal to overcharge customers...The problem is that Goldline is taking would-be gold investors and turning them into coin collectors without their knowledge."

That's misrepresentation and fraud.

The phrase you quote, in and of itself, is an opinion based in semantics - not anywhere near something that could be legally considered fraud. In fact, that graphic is full of selective paraphrasing and semantics, and in certainly not demonstrable of any actual fraudulant activity.

I agree with you that Goldline is a crappy investment, but it is providing specifically what it and Beck claims it provides - for a cost. I also agree that Beck discredits himself to an extent by promoting the product, but that falls well short of fraud.

My point is that, in the real world, this is what well-known personalities do - advertise products that make money for the companies paying them to do so.

...and if actual, major fraud was your major concern, I find it odd how the example you choose to create a thread for was Glen Beck promoting a LEGAL product while there was no mention of any admonishment of Charlie Rangle...

My point being that there are much bigger fish to fry that you are no doubt aware of, but you choose only to go after those fish which you disagree with.

Why?

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by Aramike

My point being that there are much bigger fish to fry that you are no doubt aware of, but you choose only to go after those fish which you disagree with.

Why?

And round and round we go. I couldn't care less about Rangel. He's been shown and proven time after time to be a scumbag. This stuff's been going on since 2008 with the internet site scandal and the Caribbean trips and whatnot. Old news to me. I hope he's booted out of office.

I'll copy and paste my answers to the exact same question from just a few posts back on the thread.

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Probably a bit of both.

He's held up to be infallible by a large segment of people. Given that, I think it's pretty shady to take advantage of people that believe that about you. He's using his position to enrich himself unfairly. Why does that not deserve to be called out?

Would I have the same low opinion if, say, Rachel Maddow did something like this? Absolutely. Would I make the same comments? Absolutely.

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Hah! Well this also has to do with economics. Since economics is my job, I take a special interest in it. When someone screams about "omg hyperinflation! buy gold now!" I just have to shake my head - deflation is the problem they're trying to stave off now.

I find economics scams far more interesting than the same old garden variety political ones.

Originally Posted by Aramike

I agree with you that Goldline is a crappy investment, but it is providing specifically what it and Beck claims it provides - for a cost.

Except it's not. It's providing collectables. Not commodity gold.

[UnderseaLcpl]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

With U-6 unemployment around 15 to 18% and the average hours worked in the basement, the resulting lack of wage inflation pressure means deflation, not inflation.

Simply put, If no one has money to spend we cannot have CPI inflation.

Can't we? Why not? The inflation rate over the past 3 years says otherwise, as does the Index. It's not just about wages, it's about the total currency supply.

I figure you must know something I don't, because from where I'm standing it still looks like you've confused stimulatory Keynesian currency injection with combating deflation. If deflation was a problem, we'd see a reduction in the overall currency supply while GDP grew. What we have now is the opposite; a reduced GDP with a low growth rate and a rapidly expanding currency supply. Don't take my word for it, look at the the value of the USD against precious metals. Look at the insane state of the futures markets. Investors seem to know that they have a high inflation rate to beat if they're going to make any money, why don't you?

I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything, I'm just questioning your evaluation of the situation. It seems wrong to me. Then again, economics is your job while it's just kind of a hobby for me, so you may well know something I don't.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by UnderseaLcpl

Can't we? Why not? The inflation rate over the past 3 years says otherwise, as does the Index. It's not just about wages, it's about the total currency supply.

I figure you must know something I don't, because from where I'm standing it still looks like you've confused stimulatory Keynesian currency injection with combating deflation. If deflation was a problem, we'd see a reduction in the overall currency supply while GDP grew. What we have now is the opposite; a reduced GDP with a low growth rate and a rapidly expanding currency supply. Don't take my word for it, look at the the value of the USD against precious metals. Look at the insane state of the futures markets. Investors seem to know that they have a high inflation rate to beat if they're going to make any money, why don't you?

I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything, I'm just questioning your evaluation of the situation. It seems wrong to me. Then again, economics is your job while it's just kind of a hobby for me, so you may well know something I don't.

A few reasons why deflation is more of a fear than inflation. I'm not at work, so forgive me if I can't insert a bunch of nifty Bloomberg charts here:

A decreasing money supply multiplier (velocity or how often $1 is spent) as well as as a plateau in money supply growth :


tight credit availability

flat wage rates

commodity price decreases - check out the price of lumber since April, for example: http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=527

a double dip housing recession - worst June on record for new home sales, months of supply on the market creeping back up:


restaurants are reeling -


Truck tonnage is rolling over. you work in railroads, you should be more aware than I am of the trends in cargo - I imagine you've seen declines lately :



hotel occupancy is having the worst year since the Great Depression

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHE...ancyJuly29.jpg

Check out the retailers comments in the Fed Beige Book reports - all of the anecdotal evidence bodes terrible for retail sales: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...vey-shows.html

[Aramike]

Except it's not. It's providing collectables. Not commodity gold.

All gold is "commodity gold".

[UnderseaLcpl]

I hate to be a pest and drag this up but I'm afraid you've lost me again, Mark. Be a sport and let me run through this whole thing again, if you don't mind.

To begin, I understand why deflation is bad. I don't know about you, but I'm one of those who believes the Great Depression was exacerbated by the Fed allowing the money supply to contract too quickly. I would also agree that it can be worse than inflation.

However, what I'm seeing now is not deflation, but inflation to the point where it appears that the Fed has lost control of the money supply. You have that graph of the M1 multiplier, which shows a clear loss in velocity. That means that the most liquid currency supply is not being used, right? That's to be expected in a recession, as is everything else you illustrated. (And just in case you were wondering, rail traffic is severely depressed as well. We're actually beginning to experience negative growth in staple bulk goods like coal and grain) With reduced demand and productivity comes a reduction in m1 supply. However, the m3 supply has greatly increased, partly because of hoarding and partly because of printing/bonds. This tells me that m3 is not being converted into m1.

Before I continue, please let me know if I've got that part right.