Elections in Europe today

[Oberon]

And now it gets interesting...

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

And now it gets interesting...

Aye that

[Respenus]

Actually, Greece will become a much bigger problem than France. Hollande will not have the two year long grace period that Mitterrand had when he became president. Hollande has already spoken in favour of fiscal discipline (how that will be enacted in reality is a different thing, but right now, in the EU, it is the discourse that sets the course) and Merkel has been willing to support an increase in funds of the European Investment Bank, whose policies actually strongly support SMEs, something that Germany likes.

Greece on the other hand has finally disintegrated. It's a question if a coalition can even be formed and if it can, what kind of policies will it actually be able to put in place. So, say goodbye to the two month grace period we had and prepare once more to breathe heavily on Fridays. It helps when following the developments in the European Council.

[Bilge_Rat]

I was hoping Sarko would pull off an upset, but it was not to be. Best of luck to the new President.

Much as you criticize the French, I much prefer their system for electing a President.

[STEED]

Sarkozy your out of here.

Next to get shot of Angela Merkel.

Then the clown double act here of David Cameron & Nick Clegg.


Mean while in Greece..

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek voters enraged by economic hardship deserted traditional governing parties in droves at elections on Sunday, putting the country's future in the euro zone at risk, according to an early projection by the Interior Ministry.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/angry-greek...-business.html

[Kongo Otto]

Originally Posted by STEED

I hope Sarkozy is given the boot and don't forget your milk crate on the way out. As for Greece what a mess.

Sarkozy got the boot but be sure that nothing will change.
One "old boy" was changed against an other "old boy", so what?
Thank god i voted neither of those pompous wazzocks.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Respenus

Actually, Greece will become a much bigger problem than France. Hollande will not have the two year long grace period that Mitterrand had when he became president. Hollande has already spoken in favour of fiscal discipline (how that will be enacted in reality is a different thing, but right now, in the EU, it is the discourse that sets the course) and Merkel has been willing to support an increase in funds of the European Investment Bank, whose policies actually strongly support SMEs, something that Germany likes.

Hollande and fiscal discipline. Only at the price of spending more, and increasing debts. So much for discipline. Increasing funds for the Euro Investement Bank equals a further desintegration of fiscal discipline, since these raises can only be had at the price of increasing debts of the paying nations (they have no money in black numbers and so need to lease those upstocking volumes themselves). In other words, the investements of this bank gets payed with more debts, and in the end translates into more collectivising of the debts. What Germany wanted to avoid, was right this. What the already existing SAtability Pact, and the treaty of Maasstricht forbig, was right this: collectivisng of debts. Until today it still is valid European law that no nation is allowed to take over the guaranteeing for the debts of other nations. It's just that this gets simply ignored since years.

Whether the effect now gets acchieved by Eurobonds or the Investement Bank, is unimportant, the meaning is the same: bypassing financial discipline, letting nations off the hook to not spend more than they can manage to earn. Message from doing so: no need to save at home, you get bailouts nevertheless, just under a different name. Bills to the same adresses as usual.

You have always been a hopeless optimist on European issues, Respenus.

Greece on the other hand has finally disintegrated. It's a question if a coalition can even be formed and if it can, what kind of policies will it actually be able to put in place. So, say goodbye to the two month grace period we had and prepare once more to breathe heavily on Fridays. It helps when following the developments in the European Council.

The so-called "m arket" already has written off the losses from greece. It's damage potential thus is limited now, fincially, and only eurocrats worry now about the symbology of when Greece leaves or gets thrown out of the Euro.

Symbology. In other words: making big tam-tams over worthless hulls with no content.

The fincial damage possible from the case France is much more dangerous than Greece. When Holland moves on with his plans, the intrerest rates for French bonds will go through the ceiling, and then it is party in Euroland. Compared to France, Greece is just a cheap noontime siesta.

One extreme left and one extreme right party in Greek parliament. I expect to see some very entertaining TV scenes from live reports from the chamber. They have swung fists over lesser issues in the past, I believe I recall.

[_dgn_]

Some simple equations :

1)

Portugal + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Spain + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Greece + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
France + a Socialist government => ??? for this country.

2)

Portugal + Spain + Greece + France => ??? for € and Europe.


Cheers.

[_dgn_]

Some British (and judicious) sentences :

Winston Churchill :

“Christopher Columbus was the first socialist: he didn’t know where he was going, he didn’t know where he was… and he did it all at taxpayers expense.”

Margaret Thatcher :

"The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."

To be meditated ...

[Oberon]

"History repeats when no-one learns the lessons..."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...r-right-greece

Just as we have seen some countries go to the left to try and cope with this crisis, others are going to go right...some more than others. We've seen the beginnings in Finland and Holland, but the seeds are planted deeper in Greece because it's in Greece that the crisis is hitting home the hardest, just like Germany in the early 1930s.
It's not likely that the Golden Dawn are going to take over the Greek government, Europe remembers the Nazis too well to let the far right take control of a country again, but that sentiment can rise in any manner of forms, be it more 'Brevik' style attacks, or just a rise in anti-immigration policies.
With Merkel and Hollande unlikely to agree to anything lasting, and Merkels party alliance facing trouble at home...

These will be dark days for Europe...and thus eventually, the world, for economic markets are so interlinked that if Europe goes down the pan, Japan, America and China will follow. Already the Japanese markets are down because of the news in Greece and France.

[BossMark]

Originally Posted by _dgn_

Margaret Thatcher

Do you mind not using foul and abusive language on these forums please.

Some simple equations :

1. Spain-right wing military dictatorship=>heavy problems for this country
Portugal-right wing military dictatorship=>heavy problems for the country.
Greece right wing military dictatorship=>heavy problems for the country

2. each of those coutries has had changing governments since the end of dictatorship

[Torvald Von Mansee]

Originally Posted by _dgn_

Some simple equations :

1)

Portugal + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Spain + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Greece + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
France + a Socialist government => ??? for this country.

2)

Portugal + Spain + Greece + France => ??? for € and Europe.


Cheers.

You can't mix logic with faith.

[Torvald Von Mansee]

Originally Posted by _dgn_

Some British (and judicious) sentences :

Winston Churchill :Margaret Thatcher :To be meditated ...

LOL...seriously?

[Respenus]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You have always been a hopeless optimist on European issues, Respenus.

A hopeless optimist Skybird? Even after you've turned me around? Then, what was I a couple of years ago? A loony?

In all seriousness, I understand your argument and its underlying logic and I agree, we have to live within our means and we have to avoid common debts in the Eurozone, without having a proper, common state to support it. Since a snowball in Hell has a higher chance of survival than this prospect, I wouldn't count on it happening any time soon and if it did come to pass, there would still need to be internal discipline, as we see it in Switzerland for example.

As for Hollande and fiscal disciple, our beloved Spiegel has an article on the fact that Hollande will have to be a pragmatist in order to survive (nothing new on the Western front). As for the EIB, note that the majority of its capital is call-in capital, meaning that states can be called upon to fulfil their commitments, but if I remember correctly, this has yet to happen to the EIB. Contrary to most banks, it actually functions like one and it makes sure that its investments are sound and that credits are paid back. Thus states will only have to pay a small amount of the total increase in bank capital, but which, when used properly, can have major positive results for the economy. Of course, this will take years, so its not a panacea for the current ills. Plus, there's currently a Luxembourgian as president of the EIB and it is certain to remain in capable (read northern European) hands.

Originally Posted by Skybird

The so-called "market" already has written off the losses from greece. It's damage potential thus is limited now, fincially, and only eurocrats worry now about the symbology of when Greece leaves or gets thrown out of the Euro.

Symbology. In other words: making big tam-tams over worthless hulls with no content.

As the S&P recent report states, you are in the right, and they consider a Greek exit to be a high possibility in future development, which will set a problematic precedence for other eurozone members in the periphery. This is probably what we all wish to avoid. If the markets were rational, Greece would had been left to hang two years ago, considering that it is a small economy, with a minor share in total Euro public debt. But this market irrationality, taken together with ineffective and panic stricken leaders, meant that policy decisions were taken that were counter-productive, turning Greece into an endless money hole, while supporting austerity policies in an environment with a non-functional administrative system and ubiquitous cronyism, meant that Greece's economy would dive even deeper.

I also agree with you, that currently symbols mean a lot more than actions and it is this symbolism that has both given us respite in the past two months, and it will be symbolism which will throw us off the deep end. Here's hoping (oh, you meant this optimism ) that the discourse will change. But the Skybird trained realist in my knows that it won't and that we'll once again take feel-good decision without any substance. Path dependency anyone?