The US car industry

Catfish · 11-14-08, 08:13 AM

Hello,
i also like the older US cars, they have a style of its own, indeed they are the inventors of styling. I also like the British classic cars, and still own a small '69 Triumph Spit Mk3 which b.t.w. needs much less fuel than a "modern" car with its failing electronics. But then it has only covered 260.000 miles, and a new VW will certainly last longer (this is a JOKE, b.t.w.). Has anyone calculated the energy balance of a new produced car ? The german Porsche Cayenne needs some 40-70 liters per 100 km, but it is an ecological car with its new catalytic converter. Ask our government.

There is no doubt that human behaviour has something to do with the world's changing climate, but even without that it is quite idiotic to BURN coal, and especially oil. Oil is a good resource for plastic parts of all kinds, and the medical industry.

But what really strikes me is this idiotic peak oil theory probably made up by the large companies. I still think this was made up to raise oil prices beyond any "natural" barrier. As a geologist and having worked quite a bit about and with oil i can say there is no end of resources in sight - you will maybe not find mega fields in Houston, and Iraq anymore, but there's still some more to explore in the rest if the world (Siberiy, chinese continental shelf and a lot of otheres, certainly without direct US control). The prices are - apart from the taxes applied - much too high. Oil is traded as a rare substance, which it is not. The price is completely artificial. Seems capitalism is eating itself up here without a real competition. There was competition in earlier times, at least seven big companies trying to outdo themselves. Now there are four left, but they talk to another. A cartel, no competition, and nothing to do with free market economy.

We should certainly develop other fuels or energy concepts, for draining the world's batteries and producing CO2 is not really clever, but selling oil at high prices because it is artificially made "rare" ? Next they will sell you salt water, and limestone while you are sitting on an island of limestone.

Greetings,
Catfish

11-14-08, 08:34 AM

The principle behind peak oil is not just reserves in total, but also accesibility, refinary ressources and demand.

1. First of all, there is an absolute amount of oil still left. It's not "refilled". So no matter what, it "will" run out eventually, maybe sooner, maybe later. There is nothing going around this at all. How much left is another question.

2. What is more important though when does it become profitable to explore those oilfields that are harder to come by, when does it make sense to work with oil sands and comparable ressources. When it comes to these measure, yes, we will have oil for a couple more decades to come, but it will get more and more expensive for the simple reasons that ressources to get to that oil is becoming more expensive. The arctic and some other regions may still house some suprises to be discovered, but it just prolongs the ineviteable.

3. China, India and a lot more countries reach higher and higher industrial levels and such higher and higher demand. This means that even if we find more ressources, and are able to maintin and even raise oil production, it still means it will become more expensive as demand will for sure be higher. We'd have to discover, explore and invest in huge areas to keep the odds even. Given that since the 80ies no new and easily acessible major oilfield was discovered, I doubt that will happen.

4. The last couple years, also due to raising oil prices, the oil industry completly neglected refinery capacity and missed investments into the infrastructure. Hurricane katarina amplified that problem in the US. The lack of these capacities means, that even if more oil is found and it's possible to get it, there won't be enough ressources to make it into useable gas ann other products. Rebuilding and investing would take at least a decade before they could go into production. Given the fragile future of the whole oil market, making these investments is a high risk.

5. Interestingly enough the peak oil theory was always fought by the companies, never advertised. Cuz that would have ment, in it's logical conclusion, that alternative energy ressources would have to be found. oil companies are not stupid. They know that asking for higher prices has to stop somewhere, else they will lose their profit because folks will develop something else for the energy problem. I dare to say, had the industry come up with this theory themselves, earlier, we'd not have the problems right now. So it's not reasonable to assume it was this industry inventing peak oil. Thse guys certainly want to prevent any altrnatives as long they can milk the cow, which is understandable in my book.

subchaser12 · 11-14-08, 09:49 AM

These big companies love to chant "let the market work things out". Ok then, let's do exatly that. Let's let the market solve it shall we? Oh but when it's their butt in the fire all of a sudden they want a socialist fix. Imagine that.

The US auto market brought this on itself. Even before the gas crunch like 5 years ago there was a year and a half wait on a hybrid. Mind you this was before 4$ gallons on gas. What did the US auto industry give us? New hummers and crap like that. Sorry people, but I am sick of seeing soccer moms driving tanks to go to starbucks. Even the names are asinine. The excursion, expedition, the armada. I mean what next? The invasion, the task force, the inquisition. Pfft, let em burn, at least it will be easier to park my normal car.

I'm 6 feet tall and 245, I drive a little car, I don't need a big auto to feel macho.

11-14-08, 08:34 AM	#2
Bewolf Stowaway Posts: n/a Downloads: Uploads:	The principle behind peak oil is not just reserves in total, but also accesibility, refinary ressources and demand. 1. First of all, there is an absolute amount of oil still left. It's not "refilled". So no matter what, it "will" run out eventually, maybe sooner, maybe later. There is nothing going around this at all. How much left is another question. 2. What is more important though when does it become profitable to explore those oilfields that are harder to come by, when does it make sense to work with oil sands and comparable ressources. When it comes to these measure, yes, we will have oil for a couple more decades to come, but it will get more and more expensive for the simple reasons that ressources to get to that oil is becoming more expensive. The arctic and some other regions may still house some suprises to be discovered, but it just prolongs the ineviteable. 3. China, India and a lot more countries reach higher and higher industrial levels and such higher and higher demand. This means that even if we find more ressources, and are able to maintin and even raise oil production, it still means it will become more expensive as demand will for sure be higher. We'd have to discover, explore and invest in huge areas to keep the odds even. Given that since the 80ies no new and easily acessible major oilfield was discovered, I doubt that will happen. 4. The last couple years, also due to raising oil prices, the oil industry completly neglected refinery capacity and missed investments into the infrastructure. Hurricane katarina amplified that problem in the US. The lack of these capacities means, that even if more oil is found and it's possible to get it, there won't be enough ressources to make it into useable gas ann other products. Rebuilding and investing would take at least a decade before they could go into production. Given the fragile future of the whole oil market, making these investments is a high risk. 5. Interestingly enough the peak oil theory was always fought by the companies, never advertised. Cuz that would have ment, in it's logical conclusion, that alternative energy ressources would have to be found. oil companies are not stupid. They know that asking for higher prices has to stop somewhere, else they will lose their profit because folks will develop something else for the energy problem. I dare to say, had the industry come up with this theory themselves, earlier, we'd not have the problems right now. So it's not reasonable to assume it was this industry inventing peak oil. Thse guys certainly want to prevent any altrnatives as long they can milk the cow, which is understandable in my book. Last edited by Bewolf; 11-14-08 at 09:32 AM.

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11-14-08, 08:13 AM	#1
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,767 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Hello, i also like the older US cars, they have a style of its own, indeed they are the inventors of styling. I also like the British classic cars, and still own a small '69 Triumph Spit Mk3 which b.t.w. needs much less fuel than a "modern" car with its failing electronics. But then it has only covered 260.000 miles, and a new VW will certainly last longer (this is a JOKE, b.t.w.). Has anyone calculated the energy balance of a new produced car ? The german Porsche Cayenne needs some 40-70 liters per 100 km, but it is an ecological car with its new catalytic converter. Ask our government. There is no doubt that human behaviour has something to do with the world's changing climate, but even without that it is quite idiotic to BURN coal, and especially oil. Oil is a good resource for plastic parts of all kinds, and the medical industry. But what really strikes me is this idiotic peak oil theory probably made up by the large companies. I still think this was made up to raise oil prices beyond any "natural" barrier. As a geologist and having worked quite a bit about and with oil i can say there is no end of resources in sight - you will maybe not find mega fields in Houston, and Iraq anymore, but there's still some more to explore in the rest if the world (Siberiy, chinese continental shelf and a lot of otheres, certainly without direct US control). The prices are - apart from the taxes applied - much too high. Oil is traded as a rare substance, which it is not. The price is completely artificial. Seems capitalism is eating itself up here without a real competition. There was competition in earlier times, at least seven big companies trying to outdo themselves. Now there are four left, but they talk to another. A cartel, no competition, and nothing to do with free market economy. We should certainly develop other fuels or energy concepts, for draining the world's batteries and producing CO2 is not really clever, but selling oil at high prices because it is artificially made "rare" ? Next they will sell you salt water, and limestone while you are sitting on an island of limestone. Greetings, Catfish

11-14-08, 09:49 AM	#3
subchaser12 Sonar Guy Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Spam, duplicate accounts, provoking moderators. Posts: 377 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	These big companies love to chant "let the market work things out". Ok then, let's do exatly that. Let's let the market solve it shall we? Oh but when it's their butt in the fire all of a sudden they want a socialist fix. Imagine that. The US auto market brought this on itself. Even before the gas crunch like 5 years ago there was a year and a half wait on a hybrid. Mind you this was before 4$ gallons on gas. What did the US auto industry give us? New hummers and crap like that. Sorry people, but I am sick of seeing soccer moms driving tanks to go to starbucks. Even the names are asinine. The excursion, expedition, the armada. I mean what next? The invasion, the task force, the inquisition. Pfft, let em burn, at least it will be easier to park my normal car. I'm 6 feet tall and 245, I drive a little car, I don't need a big auto to feel macho.