Poll: Obama vs Clinton on remaining pledged delegates

[TDK1044]

We live in a society where most people can name the contestants on American Idiol, but they don't know who their State Representatives are. Barack Obama will flourish in such an environment.

Currently he has 1,622 pledged delegates and Hillary has 1,485, giving him a 137 delegate advantage. Michigan and Florida are now almost certainly out of the picture. Looking at what's left, Hillary will win PA comfortably. Some people mistakenly belevie that Puerto Rico is a winner take all deal. It is only that if one candidate polls less than 15 percent of the total vote. That's not going to happen and Hillary will win by something like a 60 to 40 percent margin. The remaining States are either Obama States or too close to call.

The end result of all this will be Obama having a delegate lead of over 100 at the point where the super Delegates get involved. Regarding the SDs, bear in mind that whatever they say for public consumption, these men and women are elected officials and politicians whose primary goal is to get re-elected. Most of them will therefore vote the same way as the pledged delegates in their State. A classic example of that was Representative John Lewis from Georgia. He publicly endosed Hillary at the start of the campaign, and then announced that he would vote for Obama once the Georgia Democrats voted heavily for Obama in their primary.

A handful of brave souls will vote against their pledged Delegates because of genuine concerns regarding a candidate, but in the end, Obama will win and either he or John McCain will be the next President.