A loss for the world

[Dan D]

I don’t share your estimations. That EU-IRAN negotiations have failed does not necessarily mean that US-IRAN negotiations a priori are futile. You could only say that, if the failure of EU-Iran negotiations already would have proven, that “any” diplomatic talks are bound to failure because Iran is not interested in any kind of diplomatic solution which is what you seem to believe.
Based on the prevailing assumption that Iran has started a nuclear program to develop nuclear weapons, the key point seems to me, that Iran feels threatened by the US which has encircled Iran with troops on the ground in all neighbour countries. Iran does not feel threatened by Europe despite Chirac had indicated to the Iran leadership in the past that France could think of using its nuclear weapons if necessary and despite the fact that the UK has an nuclear arsenal too. Besides, I think that France and Britain indeed are capable of nuking Iran into oblivion, but that is not the point here. Europe had nothing to offer to Iran in negotiation talks, because Iran does not mainly feel threatened by Europe. No one really expected a diplomatic solution by the EU-Iran talks, the purpose was basically to keep the ball in play.

The only possible diplomatic solution that I can see, is the US offering security guarantees to Iran to not attack them. A possible US attack is a strong motivation to develop nuclear weapons for self-defence because as it seems, nowadays you need nuclear arms to make sure that you don’t get attacked, see North Korea, see Iraq.

I’d say, it is unlikely that the US will even start negotiation talks with Iran, because the US refuses to talk with Iran already since the occupation of the US embassy 1979 and the US administration has repeatedly said that it won’t negotiate with Iran.
Because of the negotiations with North Korea, one could speculate whether there will also be a change in US policy towards Iran which we will find out soon anyway.

However, I can’t see it happening that the US will give security guarantees to Iran, at least, as long as Iran does not stop threatening Israel and in general terms comes to its senses.