Tony Blair is going

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Blair & Bush should be taking lessons from John Howard, he's got a 2:1 margin for preferred PM against the Opposition leader and more than that against his nearest party next-in-line (peter Costello). Basically the public want him to leader rather than anyone else, by a long way.

And as much as some people don't like him, the vast majority know he's got what it takes to do the job, regardless of how they like his policies. Ie He's not wishy/washy and will do what he thinks best regardless of pandering to popular opinion. (And most australian can respect that)

There's no way JH would be drawn into making a binding descision on when to retire (and there's been many many attempts to pin him down). IMO he'll take his party through the next election (and win) and could even go another full term. (I doubt he'll go the next full term, he'll step down somewhere when he feels like he's done all he want to)