Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The way the drones were brought in and prepared reminds me of a scene from Daniel Suarez' novel "Kill Decision. In it, autonomous drone swarms with swarm intelligence get transported via commercial shipping containers, on merchant freighters. When the time had come, the containers released the drones from these merchants , and the drone swarm then vicously attacked and wiped out military navy fleets and land targets, striking completely surprisingly while sailing unsuspiciously to closest vicinity with their targets. Somethign along this idea, if I remember correctly, its a long time ago I red the novel.,

The novel was written 2011 and 2012.

Drones will bring us plenty of fun in the future. I fear we have just seen the tip of the iceberg so far.

Today I read in FOCUS this:

A senior Ukrainian official acknowledged that the operation [against the russian bombers, Skybird] risks turning Western partners away from Ukraine.

“The concern is that this is Sinop,” he said, referring to the Russian attack on an Ottoman port in 1853, which resulted in the aggressor being isolated on the world stage.

Western forces are watching the situation closely. For many years they have concentrated their own aircraft at fewer and fewer airbases for cost reasons and have failed to invest in hardened hangars or shelters that could protect against drones and missiles. America's own strategic bombers can be seen on public satellite imagery standing in the open.

“Imagine,” writes Tom Shugart of CNAS, a Washington think tank, 'containers in rail yards, on Chinese container ships in port or offshore, on trucks parked in random places ... from which thousands of drones are sprouting, flying off and destroying at least the crown jewels of the [US Air Force].' That, he warns, would be ‘quite feasible’.

[Dargo]

Did we say thank you to Ukraine for destroying the strategical bombers made to nuke the West? If the last Beriev A-50 is destroyed/damaged, Ukraine blinded Russia yesterday, there are no risks turning Western partners away from Ukraine. We will want to know everything and learn from the boss we test all our equipment in Ukraine, this is no opportunity to walk away. Laser test in UK months later Ukraine is developing a laser weapon nah this will only unite us Ukraine is in the Western family. This attack is a heavy blow militarily for Russia. Russia has only about 100 strategic bombers, a good number of which may now be damaged. The planes still date from the Soviet Union. They are no longer made, so even if they can still be repaired, it will be very difficult and time-consuming. If Russia wants to launch an even bigger attack, it will have to find replacements for the planes that hit Ukraine.

Russia is making demands that amount to rule over Ukraine. Zelenskyy cannot agree to this, as it would mean an end to Ukrainian sovereignty. This attack shows that Zelenskyy does not need to agree, either, that Ukraine is strong enough to stay afloat. Ukraine has also been showing that on the front line for three years. It is also a clear signal to the United States. Donald Trump has been saying since he took office that Ukraine has no chance, that Zelenskyy ‘doesn't have the cards’ to demand anything in the negotiations. This attack is not a direct response to that attitude by Trump, as he had been preparing for a year and a half, according to Zelenskyy. It is a message to the US, though, take us seriously. Whether it also turns out positively for Zelenskyy remains to be seen. The US has not yet responded substantively.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Its effects would be similar to those of several Iskander-M missiles equipped with high-explosive fragmentation warheads. Meanwhile, a single Iskander missile is estimated to cost about $3 million, compared to the Yars ICBM, a distant relative of the Oreshnik, which was thought to cost approximately $30 million in 2011. An "expensive way to deliver not that much destruction" Putin fires a new missile to amplify his nuclear threats to dissuade Western nations from continuing their support for Ukraine. Not gone work!

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Its effects would be similar to those of several Iskander-M missiles equipped with high-explosive fragmentation warheads. Meanwhile, a single Iskander missile is estimated to cost about $3 million, compared to the Yars ICBM, a distant relative of the Oreshnik, which was thought to cost approximately $30 million in 2011. An "expensive way to deliver not that much destruction" Putin fires a new missile to amplify his nuclear threats to dissuade Western nations from continuing their support for Ukraine. Not gone work!

The question is: How much do Putin care about the price for each Oreshnik missile he's going to send against Ukraine ?

I think he does not care a bit. He wants revenge whatever the price is.

Markus

[Dargo]

^Oh let him do it, the effect will not win him the war bombing civilians never had success in history.

[Dargo]

Tass have published Russia's memorandum, which it refused to hand over to Ukraine until the peace talks in Istanbul today. The demands basically amount to surrender, regime change, and putting Ukraine back in Russia's grip. They are:

1. Ukraine withdraws from four partially occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) and lets Russia have them. "International recognition" follows.
2. Ukraine pledges never to join any military alliances or coalitions (NATO etc). No foreign boots on the ground or military infrastructure, either.
3. Any current or future efforts to this end are rolled back or banned.
4. No nuclear weapons for Ukraine.
5. Caps on Ukraine's military. Far-right units are disbanded.
6. "Full guarantee of rights for Russian speakers." Russian becomes an official language.
7. Ban on "glorification and promoting of Nazism and neo-Nazism." Nationalist parties and groups are disbanded.
8. All western sanctions are lifted. No sanctions can be introduced in future either.
9. "Resolution of issues" with family reunification and displaced persons.
10. Both sides agree not to demand reparations.
11. Ukraine rolls back its restrictions on the Russian Orthodox Church.
12. Full restoration of diplomatic and economic relations, "including gas transit," as well as transport and "other ties, including with third countries."

There are two paths to a ceasefire:

• Ukraine withdraws from the four partially occupied regions within 30 days.
• The "package option" Ukraine does a bunch of other things first, including holding elections, and then withdraws from those regions later. All within 30 days.

Russia's vision for Ukraine's future is pretty clear here: a rump state run by a quisling that accepts Moscow's diktat.

[Skybird]

^ In principle the same demands like in the last 3+ years. No softening, no concession, no compromise. Russia does not want peace. It wants total victory for Russia and unconditional surrender and self-subjugation of Ukraine and destroying NATO.

The latter being the reason why I am convinced it just is a question of time until Russia attacks a small NATO member, in a provocation. They must not want to march through to the Atlantic coast in Rotterdam, or roll into (West) Germany. They only must want that a few NATO members will not dare to provoke the nuclear-armed Russian bear over a small unimportant region like for example Lithuania or Estland or a share of frozen territory of Finland - then it is proven that article 5 is a toothless tiger. NATO would immediately be a dead corpus, nobody would invest into it and the alliance with others anymore and everybody would know that he is alone and that the others would not come to his help.

Divide et impera. Trump plays it. Putin plays it. China plays it.

Thats why Russia must not be able to militarily wipe out all NATO forces in Europe. Just wiping out a tiny fraction of that, but this event concentrated in a small area, is already enough to shake NATO to the bone.

The Russian strategy makes a worrying lot of sense.

Russia dwarfens beside the EU states' economic power and GDPs. Europe should out-produce Russia'S war production, should produce it into the ground. It is absolutely capable to do so. But it does not. It deliberately choses not to. Politicians and governments prevent it from being done, quoting different ideologically driven goals and objectives, or better: illusions.

If NATO collapses, Europe is done. State by state by state by state, one at a time.

Russia is willing to do whatever it takes to see this war through to victory - no matter what.

The West is not.

So far, nothign of all what was done by the West, has made any difference to them, they have not changed one bit their demands. Sanctions, ammuntiions, embargos, weapon deliveries - nothing worked, nothing hurt them to a degree where it would make them change their mind.

Lets take off the gloves and accept that the old world order is gone and dead anyway. Both Putin and Trumpo buried it.

But Germany's Merz still acts and speaks as if the old order, the trustworthiness of the transatlantic "partnership", is still there. Right now its difficult for me to see a distinction between him and Scholz. He talks a different talk, but talking is cheap and he still walks the same old walk. The defense minister (SPD) is the same old uneffective defense minister like before, and the CDU foreign minister appears to be lil' Annalena after a sex change.

[mapuc]

^^ Some expert said on Danish tv, that these demands show a leader who isn't interested in peace.

When will Trump come to this conclusion too ?

Markus

[Dargo]

World Leaders Praise Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web as Model of Modern Self-Defense

International leaders have praised Ukraine's June 1 drone strike targeting multiple Russian strategic airbases, describing the operation Spider Web as a sophisticated and legitimate act of self-defense. The coordinated strike, led by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), inflicted significant damage on key Russian military assets and marked a major escalation in Kyiv’s asymmetric warfare strategy... https://united24media.com/latest-new...f-defense-8814

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^^ Some expert said on Danish tv, that these demands show a leader who isn't interested in peace.

When will Trump come to this conclusion too ?

Markus

Trump always chickens out on Ukraine too, forget TACO.

Trump uses threats and force much like a playground bully: while large and outwardly powerful, he actually fears the use of force in any situation even vaguely resembling a fair fight . . . Actual violence only occurs against much weaker foes that have no hope of striking back.

https://www.ft.com/content/714c1096-...0-8a051406bc75