Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

And there is another worrying perspective. By the end of this runnign war, we will have a Europe that still acts lull and dull in peacetime mode - with the Russian economy then producing in full war time production mode. They then will be ready for more of the same - while we have not improved one bit, just bend our heads deep backwards for years and explored the inside of our guts. Russia is an economy, hardship and short supply is being dealt easier with. And most Russians now believe that the whole West is up against them. Most Russians believe the Kremlin's narrative.

[Exocet25fr]

Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count

There may not be much the West either can or will do to help Ukraine
Electronic warfare system.

https://www.economist.com/europe/202...-warfare-count


White House warns it is running out of money to help Ukraine fight its war with Russia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...vladimir-putin


NATO should be ready for ‘bad news’ from Ukraine, Stoltenberg warns

‘We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times,’ NATO chief says in ARD interview.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato...-from-ukraine/


'The fate of the war in Ukraine rests with the Europeans, but they are less determined than Russia'

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/ar...302041_23.html


Ukraine war: Soldier tells BBC of front-line 'hell'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508


Russia-Ukraine war: no reason for Russia to change goals, says Lavrov – as it happened. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow sees no signs to alter its ‘special military operation’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...0856ef8db6ee0b


US hawk warns of Russian ‘diplomatic offensive’ on Ukraine
Washington must act fast or Kiev will lose, John Bolton claims

https://www.rt.com/news/588477-bolto...m-ukraine-aid/


Growing number of Ukrainians want peace talks – poll
Nearly half of those surveyed said they are ready for compromise in negotiations with Russia

https://www.rt.com/russia/588474-ukr...ed-peace-poll/


Internal EU rows threaten Ukraine’s $54 billion – FT
Compromise within the bloc is reportedly being hampered by the rise of far-right parties in Europe and the financial crisis in Germany

https://www.rt.com/news/588471-eu-al...raine-at-risk/


Pentagon chief revealed ‘military secret’ – ex-Russian president
Lloyd Austin has admitted the true goal of Ukraine support is the modernization of the US’ military industry, Dmitry Medvedev says
and it has nothing to do with defending “democracy” or even battling Russia, but boils down to the modernization of the US military-industrial complex, ex-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said.

https://www.rt.com/russia/588432-llo...litary-secret/

[Skybird]

Drone warfare in financial numbers. If you attack with an Iranian drone coistign 20,000 coins and the enemy shoots it down with a missile ciosting 450,000 coins, then the defender will sooner or later run into financial problems.

https://www-telepolis-de.translate.g..._x_tr_pto=wapp

The Shahid-131/136 primarily serves the purpose of continuously tying up the Ukrainian air defense and depleting the available anti-aircraft ammunition potential. Their pre-staggered deployment often enables the targeted use of cruise missiles.

And this. Its never a good sign if in war the political leadership and the military leadership start to split and create a growing divide. Zalushnyi is probably the best strategist they have. To damage him is not the most clever move by Zelesnkji. In fact Zelenskji has made mistakes from beginning on, starting with his denial of a Russain invasion being imminent and thus preventing a mobilization early. His value is not his strategic or military competence but his propaganda weight by which he was able to drum for Western support so far. But by the scale he grows unsuccessful in doing that, his name is up for grabs, because his military competence is practically non-existent. There is also a deep divide between Zelenskyi and the influential mayor of Kyiv, Vladimir Klitschko:


[N-TV] The Ukrainian president should bypass the supreme commander of the armed forces, Valeriy Zalushny. This is reported by Ukrainska Pravda, citing anonymous sources. Zelensky would maintain "parallel lines of communication" with the heads of some military departments instead of communicating with Saluzhny, it is said. These included the commander of the ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi and the commander of the air force, Mykola Oleschuk. "There is the impression that Zelensky has divided the armed forces into two groups: the 'good' one, commanded by Syrskyi and others, and the 'bad' one, which reports to Salushnyi," a person from Salushnyi's inner circle told the "Ukrainska Pravda". This would demotivate the commander in chief and prevent him from commanding the entire military.
-----------------

The Ukrainian united front is showing deepening cracks. So does the EU's "unity".

[mapuc]

Came to think of Skybirds comments when watched this video clip



Markus

[Skybird]

^ The problem is what Reisner said, I quoted him just a few posts above: when we now quit, Russia has us where it wanted us and so will continue with what it already is doing: destroying Ukraine further.

Damned if you quit and damned if you don't. We have screwed it up royally.

I see no good way out.


And trhe cream on top of the cake: this outcome was unneeded. It could have been prevented. We could have seen it early, and change the outcome. But we did not want to accept to us what your eyes were telling us. Ukraine has all reason to be very bitter at us.

[August]

[Dargo]

Rheinmetall receives contract for "tens of thousands" of 155-mm shells for Ukraine

The German arms concern Rheinmetall won a large order for 155-mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine; the customer is an unnamed NATO country.

Source: European Pravda with reference to the company's press service
Details: The order, worth about 142 million euros, involves the production of "tens of thousands" of combat-ready 155-mm shells. They will be produced by the concern’s recently acquired subsidiary Expal (Rheinmetall Expal Munitions) in Spain. The customer is reported to be a NATO country that has declared its long-term intentions to provide Ukraine with military support to combat Russian aggression.

Shells from this order will be delivered as early as 2025. In 2024, Ukraine will be able to receive about 40,000 shells from an older order for Rheinmetall. The concern also recalled that in mid-October 2023, it received an order from Germany for 150,000 155-mm ammunition for Ukraine, as well as additional high-explosive DM 121 projectiles. The concern also notes that in 2024, it plans to significantly increase its production capacity in Spain, Germany, South Africa and Australia, after which the annual production capacity will reach 700,000 ammunition... https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/4/7431607/

[Jimbuna]

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Drone warfare in financial numbers. If you attack with an Iranian drone coistign 20,000 coins and the enemy shoots it down with a missile ciosting 450,000 coins, then the defender will sooner or later run into financial problems. [...]

Quite right.
So the free world supporting Ukraine should cover Moscow in drone strikes, in swarms, daily.
Putin wants to escalate? Show him how it's done.

May I remind that the west has to realize, at the end of the day, that they cannot let Putin invade Ukraine and let him get away with it. There can only be one decisive answer. And it will suffice, even when it comes late.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Drone warfare in financial numbers. If you attack with an Iranian drone coistign 20,000 coins and the enemy shoots it down with a missile ciosting 450,000 coins, then the defender will sooner or later run into financial problems.

Ukraine uses mobile fire groups against the Shahed-136 they pump a lot of lead into the air pickups with anti-aircraft guns (ZU-23-2), large-calibre machine guns, machine guns, and man-portable air defence systems (Ihla, Stinger) they accounted for about 40% of the downed drones it allows Ukraine to save anti-aircraft-guided missiles. Mobile fire groups are not only part of the Air Force, but also of all the Defence Forces, the Border Guards, the National Guard, and the Army. This is a necessary to shoot down the maximum number of Shahed before they fly up to larger air defence systems like NASAMS, Iris-T, etc. To destroy them with small arms so that Ukraine keeps a stockpile of anti-aircraft missiles to repel a cruise missile attack and deter Russian aircraft. Gepard is the best in this regard in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it also has a limited range of 4.5 kilometres to shoot down with ground-based projectiles. Therefore, Ukraine need more of them.

[mapuc]

Dargo wrote:
"Gepard is the best in this regard in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it also has a limited range of 4.5 kilometres to shoot down with ground-based projectiles. Therefore, Ukraine need more of them."

I think they are called SPAAG.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Dargo wrote:
"Gepard is the best in this regard in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it also has a limited range of 4.5 kilometres to shoot down with ground-based projectiles. Therefore, Ukraine need more of them."

I think they are called SPAAG.

Markus

SPAAG = Self Propelled Anti Aircraft Gun
The Flugabwehrkanonenpanzer Gepard ("anti-aircraft-gun tank 'Cheetah'", better known as the Flakpanzer Gepard) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Shells from this order will be delivered as early as 2025.

So, that is 12-23 months away. Until then Ukrainians must throw stones. If the Russians do not get that it might be a good idea to attack that factory. They have taken out much of the former defence industry in Ukraine - why not this one, too? Until then Ukrainians must throw stones.

Also, producing "tens of thousands" of shells per year is not enough. There were phase sin this war when both sides fired tens of thousands of shells PER DAY. Russia fired up to 30,000.

The NYT reported in Septembre, a high ranking US defence politician told them Russia produced 100 tanks per year before the war. Now they do 200 per year, growing. From early next year on, Russia will produce 2 million artillery shells. And they still build new additonal production capacities for that. By the end of the year 2024 they could have the potential to produce 2.8-3 million per year.

The ammunition order set by the Bundeswehr youi mentioned. 150,000 shells. Since the order was placed hilariously late, the Germans had to line up at the end of the line. They will get the first shells in a couple of years. And finally - 150,000 rounds? WTF...?

No, all this is no sign for a substantial leanring and adaptation process. Its just alibi politics. How comes that Russia can adapot so mucn better than the economcially superior West - depsite the 11 sanction programs? How comes that Iran could become one of the globe's leading drone suppliers, although hitech imporets also are heavily sanctioned? And what does this tell us about the success of sanctions to prevent them from getting the bomb?

The time there may have been, was headlesslywasted, casrelessly thrown out of the window. By Zelensky ignroiugn the threat, but after the war started: by the West as well. Now the Russians are in a war prodction lead where we maybe can no longer catch up with them again. It was just in the nws the past couple fo days, american defence companies all have shrunk their output, they cannot keep up with the orders, the production capacity is not fit for the volume of orders. Means: neither the US (with its eyes also on China and Taiwan) nor Europe can produce in time the ammounts needed even if they would want to. If the will would be there, the capacity could be boosted, thouzgh not without problems. But until that boosting effort would pay off, 2-5 years would pass.

What does Ukraine until then...?

Time is Russia's best ally now. Also because the West very obviously becomes war-weary.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

So, that is 12-23 months away. Until then Ukrainians must throw stones. If the Russians do not get that it might be a good idea to attack that factory. They have taken out much of the former defence industry in Ukraine - why not this one, too? Until then Ukrainians must throw stones.

Also, producing "tens of thousands" of shells per year is not enough. There were phase sin this war when both sides fired tens of thousands of shells PER DAY. Russia fired up to 30,000.

The NYT reported in Septembre, a high ranking US defence politician told them Russia produced 100 tanks per year before the war. Now they do 200 per year, growing. From early next year on, Russia will produce 2 million artillery shells. And they still build new additonal production capacities for that. By the end of the year 2024 they could have the potential to produce 2.8-3 million per year.

The ammunition order set by the Bundeswehr youi mentioned. 150,000 shells. Since the order was placed hilariously late, the Germans had to line up at the end of the line. They will get the first shells in a couple of years. And finally - 150,000 rounds? WTF...?

No, all this is no sign for a substantial leanring and adaptation process. Its just alibi politics. How comes that Russia can adapot so mucn better than the economcially superior West - depsite the 11 sanction programs? How comes that Iran could become one of the globe's leading drone suppliers, although hitech imporets also are heavily sanctioned? And what does this tell us about the success of sanctions to prevent them from getting the bomb?

The time there may have been, was headlesslywasted, casrelessly thrown out of the window. By Zelensky ignroiugn the threat, but after the war started: by the West as well. Now the Russians are in a war prodction lead where we maybe can no longer catch up with them again. It was just in the nws the past couple fo days, american defence companies all have shrunk their output, they cannot keep up with the orders, the production capacity is not fit for the volume of orders. Means: neither the US (with its eyes also on China and Taiwan) nor Europe can produce in time the ammounts needed even if they would want to. If the will would be there, the capacity could be boosted, thouzgh not without problems. But until that boosting effort would pay off, 2-5 years would pass.

What does Ukraine until then...?

Time is Russia's best ally now. Also because the West very obviously becomes war-weary.

When we ourselves are at war there is different legislation. In times of war, the government may become directive to the private sector. Then vehicles can be requisitioned and you can prioritize resources. That is all covered in our legislation. In peacetime, it is more difficult that is certainly true of the new member states on the eastern flank, which left the Soviet Union. Those have written their constitutions so sharply that peacetime military personnel are not able to do the things they are allowed to do in wartime. They need a formal declaration of war, so to speak. There is more room in Western Europe, but there is not always the political will there to push through.

When it comes to stocks, in recent years we in the West have looked only at efficiency. Spending as little money as possible, just in time, just enough. Our whole liberal economy is based on that. That means you maximize your productive capacity, and in doing so, it becomes as cheap as possible. That's fine for cell phones and toilet paper, but it doesn't work in wartime for military equipment. What we need to do is get our economy into a kind of wartime economy. That is legally difficult. In some countries, governments own or partially own the defence industry. There the government can put more direct pressure. In the Netherlands and Germany, it is a discussion between government, industry and financiers to invest in production capacity. And that all takes far too long.

We are in day 646 of a three-day war and that alone shows what an incredible feat the Ukrainians have done, with a country much smaller than Russia. Ukraine will not collapse in three days, personally think that this war could go on for another 5 to 10 years.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

We are in day 646 of a three-day war and that alone shows what an incredible feat the Ukrainians have done, with a country much smaller than Russia. Ukraine will not collapse in three days, personally think that this war could go on for another 5 to 10 years.

A thought
If Russia loses 800-1000 men each day how much time does they have on their side ?

Some have said Russia has time on their side. Maybe they have, but losing so many men each month must start to hurt or will.

I know I wrote earlier that when Russia lose 10.000 men it's statistic. However losing 24.000 to 30.000 men each month must sooner or later backfire.

That is West keeps on deliver military supply. And Ukraine can keep up with fresh boots on the ground.

Markus