Russian Politics Thread

[Skybird]

As I indicated before, Catfish, its not about independent, challenging candidates, but followers chosen by Putin. The Russian way does not obey Western standards, like it or or hate it - but it will not happen the Western way.

What we as Wetserners must prioritize is stability and control of the military and the nuclear sector, both brain power and existing weapons. And we are well advised in the West to support that outcome in Russia that maximises the chance that these factors are safe. Also we have a legitimate and vital interest in fighting back the massive Russian destabilizing interference in our political and social-communal proceedings. If we cannot even protect our own societies from Moscow'S destructive influx, how less are our options to influence their own society and state'S stability...?!

That all is not ideal, that is not idealistic, but that is how things are, and we do not have the power to enforce things being different. We are on the defense already. And America's Moscow-assisted self-destruction is not helpful either.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

As I indicated before, Catfish, its not about independent, challenging candidates, but followers chosen by Putin. The Russian way does not obey Western standards, like it or or hate it - but it will not happen the Western way.

You could have said that any dictatorship led by one man chooses (or tries to choose) its successor. Other standards have nothing to do with this basic principle.

I just brought that up because certain people keep saying that Russia would be a democracy, or as former chancellor Schroeder asserted "Putin is ein lupenreiner Demokrat." (Putin is a flawless democrat)
That is plain Bull.S.

[Jimbuna]

Vladimir Putin set out a clear path to Russian military action in Belarus for the first time on Thursday, announcing that he had agreed to assemble a “law enforcement reserve” at the request of the country’s embattled autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.

Such forces, used only if the situation went “out of control”, would be provided under the terms of a joint security treaty, Mr Putin said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/indepe...-a9692116.html

[Von Due]

Out of control for whom?

[Bilge_Rat]

Apparently Russian FSB agents have been arriving in Belarus in large numbers over the past week. Looks like any intervention will be disguised as a deployment of police forces. I think we can foresee that if Lukoshenko does survive, Russia will probably wind up with more control over Belarus.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Vladimir Putin set out a clear path to Russian military action in Belarus for the first time on Thursday, announcing that he had agreed to assemble a “law enforcement reserve” at the request of the country’s embattled autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.

Such forces, used only if the situation went “out of control”, would be provided under the terms of a joint security treaty, Mr Putin said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/indepe...-a9692116.html

In the Swedish news it was said, that Putin never would accept a western friendly government in Belarus.

Markus

[Von Due]

Originally Posted by mapuc

In the Swedish news it was said, that Putin never would accept a western friendly government in Belarus.

Markus

Operation Storm-333 pt 2

[mapuc]

(I put it here-It's about Russian military)

I know they are sending a message to USA/NATO with this exercise.

“We are holding such massive drills there for the first time ever,” Yevmenov said in a statement released by the Russian Defense Ministry.

https://abcnews.go.com/International...wMPYb7o3aihkiE

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

Apparently Russian FSB agents have been arriving in Belarus in large numbers over the past week. Looks like any intervention will be disguised as a deployment of police forces. I think we can foresee that if Lukoshenko does survive, Russia will probably wind up with more control over Belarus.

Well one of those commandos seems to have failed:
Ukrainian intelligence lured suspected Russian mercenaries to Belarus, journalists report

But you are right it is the usual russian procedure already witnessed in Ukraine, maybe the russian maoeuvres near Alaska want to divert the US from what is going on with Russia and Belarus?
With the conditions in the US Russia has it exactly where it wants it. Maybe just trying out what is possible.. Putin has won his gambling before.

[mapuc]

To keep it short

Have read a lot of article in Swedish and some Danish.

Russia is having an exercise in the Baltic Ocean Shield 2020

Sweden has sent troops, tanks and airsupport to Gotland.
A Swedish officer have said to SVT(Swedish television)
It's a sharp situation

I have tried to interpret all this information

I decided to believe what a Danish expert said.

It's all about mark territory nothing else.

Russia would loose more than they would win by invading Gotland.

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

[...] Russia is having an exercise in the Baltic Ocean Shield 2020
Sweden has sent troops, tanks and airsupport to Gotland. [...]
Russia would loose more than they would win by invading Gotland.
Markus

But Gotland is beautiful

Russia also has an exercise near Alaska, to "secure resources" (in international waters).

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

But Gotland is beautiful

Russia also has an exercise near Alaska, to "secure resources" (in international waters).

I want to change some words from my last comment.

Russia would not loose much if they decide to invade Gotland.

EU-Sweden is a member. But from reading some of Skybirds comment regarding EU and other member like Greece-Greece Turkey crisis.
So the only thing Sweden can hope for is lots of moral support and nothing more.

NATO-Well here I'm uncertain-Gotland and the Danish island Bornholm is of very high military importance.

I can therefore not say how NATO would react.

But it's not going to happen.

Back to Russian domestic politics.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Ah, now he has been poisoned ? I have read this different before in russian media.

Yes, it cannot have been Putin because as russian protesters proclaimed "poison is the weapon of a woman, a coward and a eunuch!"
I guess you do not see sarcasm so easily, but believe me, this is.
What is true however is, that the whole transport and medical aid would not have happened without Putin's approval, for whatever reason he did that..

So you say Navalny is no challenge for Putin. Who would be a legal and approved (by Putin??) candidate for the next russian president? If we exclude Medwedew.

At the time I added the term (allegedly). Now it seems that there was some sort of phosphoorganic poison, but sadly those are all too common - from insecticides to WW2 to Cold War era to present day neurotoxins.


In terms of candidates this is hard to say, realistically we would know only very close to the elections, most likely it would be a person we would not expect.
Navalny apparently began working on shifting his immage to be more electable, but that probably wouldn't help him. Still, we would probably see some one build a campaign on Navalny's martydom narrative.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I have no idea how many "followers" Nadalny has, also i do not know whether he was the head of the 65,000 protesters in the march demonstration 2017, when a thousand or so were arrested. I am also not sure whether his nationalist leaning would be good for Russia, or if he just does that to amass more people against Putin or "the corruption".

I do not see any other independent candidate. Medvedvev? Lol. I just saw a video where Medvedvev and Putin were practicing in a gym, before having breakfast together.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navalny-400063

The irony is that this was a short term move to generate money. Back in 2017 he misinformed his base and provoked them to protest at the wrong location etc. Then after the useful idiots got arrested he pocketed donations send to fund their legal representation.


Medvedev (like Navalny) is indeed a member of the same patronage networks.

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Vladimir Putin set out a clear path to Russian military action in Belarus for the first time on Thursday, announcing that he had agreed to assemble a “law enforcement reserve” at the request of the country’s embattled autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.

Such forces, used only if the situation went “out of control”, would be provided under the terms of a joint security treaty, Mr Putin said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/indepe...-a9692116.html

This is not military action, this is potential police support. Military support (ie under CSTO) has been specifically denied, the same way it was denied to Kurgyzia a while ago. Unless Belorussia comes under a credible external military threat (and Lukashenko is trying to present the situation as such very hard) they are not getting military help via CSTO.


What did happen recently was a series of nuclear posturing/signalling moves, such as the strategic bomber exercise, first joint Iskander-12th GUMO exercise (the later handles nuclear weapons) and so on, the standard re-assurance of allies stuff.

Originally Posted by Catfish

Well one of those commandos seems to have failed:
Ukrainian intelligence lured suspected Russian mercenaries to Belarus, journalists report

But you are right it is the usual russian procedure already witnessed in Ukraine, maybe the russian maoeuvres near Alaska want to divert the US from what is going on with Russia and Belarus?
With the conditions in the US Russia has it exactly where it wants it. Maybe just trying out what is possible.. Putin has won his gambling before.

The difference between Belorussia and Ukraine is that there is no real anti-Russian drive so far in the mainstream opposition. Using hard military force would change this, hence why in Belorussia we are likely to act as a mediator of power transition, like we did in Armenia (another Russian CSTO ally).

[Skybird]

So it is Novichok.



Difficult to track down the attacker then, Novichok is so wide-spread that it is kept in practically every household around the world.


Ah - wait...