The Turkish-Kurdish Dilemma

[Skybird]

That the Kurds struck a deal with assad most likely also means the end of their current amount of autonomy. Profiteers are Assad, Russia, and Iran.

Loosers are the Kurds (but not as much as if they would face Turkey all alone), and indirectly Israeli interests.



For Turkey it possibly could, and hopefully will, turn into a boomerang.

[ikalugin]

I think we may be seeing some sort of mediation that would allow everyone to save face.

[Jimbuna]

The Kurds are on a hiding to nothing whichever way it pans out and as sad as it sounds, only Assad can save them.

They could always repay their western 'friends' by releasing all those IS people in the camps.

[Skybird]

"A Mr. Maas from Germany asks if we could maybe
brush over the lettering on the tail."



(Maas is the apprentice at the top of the German foreign ministry whom hopeless optimists do not mind to refer to as the "foreign minister".

He is the one I mentioned before who suggested to react to Ankara's invasion by having a dialogue with Erdoghan).

[Skybird]

US special forces commanders feeling ashamed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/w...gtype=Homepage

Troops and officers also felt ashamed when being ordered to sit on the fence in 1991 and watching Saddam'S gunships massacring the Shia rebels. I recall a message in Newsweek from back then that really went under my skin, how it pushed the mood into the dumps, and stirred quite some anger at Bush. At that time, Saddam was not allowed to operate his air force in the embattled region. The gunships however were left to him - to make his massacre more effective. Those who were slauightered there, dared toi rise only due to encouragement and promise for assisdtane by Washington.

A big power wanting to be a biog power, will turn agai8nst its allies if it sees the need and interest to do so. Else it wiull neve rbecome and cannot stay a majopr playxer in the big global arenma. Still, when it acts like a traitor this way, it nevertehless gives a pitiful sight. And what it means for the moral of US troops on the ground in the region - well, use your imagination. Some may be happy to go home. But I tell you, many feel ashamed as well.


And Trumps tweets on the issue, quite some of them, are so sick and disconnected from reality and illustrate such a derranged, confused mind that they are simply just infuriating and leaves one wondering why any American can still believe that he is not mentally insane, sick.

Originally Posted by Donald on Twitter

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!).

A German word comes to mind: Caesarenwahn. We once had a little Gefreiten from Austria who thought himself to be the greatest Heerführer ever. It later showed he wasn't.

[mapuc]

By reading Skybird's comments and the rest in my thread and watching the news I wonder if Turkey have, by starting this invasion of northern Syria, opened the Pandora's Box. Not fully open but a tiny bit.

What can our politicians or Presidents do ?

They can put sanction, embargo and some other diplomatically stuff against Turkey.

No fly-zone would this be an option ? Well knowing that bureaucracy is a high factor in every country, it could take years before this would be a reality.

And if it happened -the UN decided to create a no fly-zone over the Northern part of Syria, how eager would the western politicians be to give the order to attack an another member of NATO ?

Oh forgot something.
Can remember which one of you, my memory says Skybird, who once wrote that in the case a NATO member is attacked this Article 5 is not given...the politicians in the rest of the NATO, would hire/engage lawyers and Jurist to do what is needed to prevent or questioning this article 5.


Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

By reading Skybird's comments and the rest in my thread and watching the news I wonder if Turkey have, by starting this invasion of northern Syria, opened the Pandora's Box. Not fully open but a tiny bit.

Turkey has had fighter son the ground south of the border since years. Only the scale of the operation has chnaged.

What can our politicians or Presidents do ?

Nothing. Militarily too weak, too afraid, too much driven by special self itnerests (selling weapons, etc etc)

They can put sanction, embargo and some other diplomatically stuff against Turkey.

Just today the NATO governments could jto even agree to stop all wepaon deioveries to Turkey. Stoltenberg left it to a vague suggestion not to döeiver them any weapons. Evberybody is afraid that The Turkish attack will be relabeled by An kara has a defence against Kurish terror and so: article 5. Nobody has the guts to confront the Turks and tell them: this way no way! Becasue Erdoghan threatens to open the floodgates that Merkel helped him to build to be used for future - and now present - blackmailing of Europe.

No fly-zone would this be an option ? Well knowing that bureaucracy is a high factor in every country, it could take years before this would be a reality.

Who to enforce it? The Russian have established strong SAM umbrellas there. Any European attempt - not to mention the German attempt LOL - to enforce a no fly zone with own fighters there would totally depend on the Russians showing good will. Russia has not so much good will - Russia has interests. I totally object to military operations - always - of any kind that depend on the good will of a rival or potential enemy.

And if it happened -the UN decided to create a no fly-zone over the Northern part of Syria, how eager would the western politicians be to give the order to attack an another member of NATO ?

The Europeans do not even stop the official EU membership candidate status of Turkey, nor do they even threaten to stop payments to Ankara. German foreing minister suggst a dialogue instead.

Oh forgot something.
Can remember which one of you, my memory says Skybird, who once wrote that in the case a NATO member is attacked this Article 5 is not given...the politicians in the rest of the NATO, would hire/engage lawyers and Jurist to do what is needed to prevent or questioning this article 5.

Yes, both true. It was me, and article 5 indeed is not automatically forcing every member to indeed agree to that its conditions are fulfilled and so every nation must send help to the attacked nation. That is still so. A governbment can weasel out by disagreeing that the preconditions for activating article 5 are met. A very important legal criterion - not left in the formulation for no reason. States are not obligated to participate in NATO's military reaction because one members claims to be under attack or because the other states activate article 5, but because the individual goverment agrees to that article 5's necessary preconditions - a memeber is indeed under attack - is fulfilled.



Its the individual government's option to agree or disagree with NATO that an article 5 situation is given. The formulation is such that indeed there is a vagueness allowing to use a backdoor as an escape hatch. ASnd I absoltuely think that wa sintgentionally done this way. No government likes to be at the full mercy of others and to give up power over its own military policy. For this reason and due to its ties to the Balkan states states and culutrla closeness to the Russian orthodox church and its own pllticla closeness to marxism (it has always had a strong political left), Greece for example always was seen as an uncertain NATO member during the hot years of the cold war. Of course noboody admitted that. But I doubt that in case of the cold war turnign hot, indeed all NATO members would have been one united strong family.


Its not me saying this on article 5, but it has been law experts and historians alike. I just repeat what some of these said and wrote. Diplomatic pressure of course would be immense, so would be the threat of cretaing plltical costs and falloput even by sanciuto9nsiing the nation refusing to agree with an article 5 scneairo when alkl others agree to it.



But what if several nations refuse to accepot its valid activation...? LOL Like some natiosn also refuse to accept Brussels' commands on enforced migration.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Heard on NPR today "the Kurdish militia" has sided with Bashar Hafez al-Assad's government to stand against attacks by Turkey into Syria. However what they failed to mention was WHICH Kurdish militia faction did so.

The Kurdish self-administration and its structures were based mainly on the YPG, and already has almost completely collapsed after the past 4 days. Having been the core of this structure, its most likely remnants of the YPG now being left.

The Kurds having run one third of Syria and self-administration without doubt now gone, this is a very good deal for Assad. But even if the Turks get driven out, the Kurds must then flee again - from Assad.

[August]

Originally Posted by Skybird

US special forces commanders feeling ashamed.

That's too bad.

Special Forces commanders also felt ashamed when we abandoned the Montagnards and the Hmong and the Cuban Democratic Front or any number of others through the years and they'll be upset when we finally pull out of Afghanistan too. Mark my words.
I'm sure that SF commanders and other professional military types will decry the lost opportunities for promotions and medals but we can't stay over there forever playing terrorist group whack-a-mole and loosing our own people in the process. Maybe if we were making progress it'd be different but we aren't.

The mere 50 troops that we had on the Syrian/Turkish border were nothing but a tripwire to start a shooting war between us and Turkey.

[Jimbuna]

Syria's army has started to reach the north of the country, hours after the government agreed to help Kurdish forces facing Turkey.

State media said government forces, which are backed by Russia, had entered the strategic town of Tal Tamer, 30km (19 miles) south of the Turkish border.

For now, Syrian forces will not be deployed between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, where Turkey has focused its efforts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50039106

It looks like neither side want to create a major conflict so heaven only knows what will happen next.

[August]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The Kurds are on a hiding to nothing whichever way it pans out and as sad as it sounds, only Assad can save them.

They could always repay their western 'friends' by releasing all those IS people in the camps.

I have a feeling that those IS people, along with a whole lot more refugees that the Turks are holding will be headed Europe's way very soon no matter how this latest war pans out.