Saudi oil fields on fire, but who did it?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Platapus

Why would Iran choose to do this at this time?

Why would they decide to attack this target at this time?

What is the risk benefit equation for this decision?

The Iranians are many things, but stupid they ain't.

They are not going to do anything like this unless it serves a significant purpose at this time that will justify it, especially when Iran is trying to maintain sympathy with the EU.

I don't know of any tactical or strategic goal of Iran that would justify this attack at this time. It is entirely possible that there are goals that I am not aware of, of course.

However, a group like the Houthis. once they got the needed weapons, might decide to attack this target at this time just to mess things up.

The Houthis have much less to lose than the Iranians. Therefore they are more prone to take these types of risks.

Just because Iran supports the Houthis does not mean that they control them. We have learned that lesson ourselves.

Lots of unanswered questions that really need answering before we make any decisions.

Why Iran would do it?


Why would Iran mine-attack tankers, like in the past weeks?



Why would Iran hijack a British tanker in retaliation for the Brits catching a blockad runner who violated Syria blockade?


Its abiout shopwing strength. Shjpowin g that one doe snot allow getting bullied into9 corners: ba synctions, ba threats, by econoimic setbacks. Its about showing that one can indeed retaliuate in many different ways. Its about weakening the income situation of the enemy in the procy war they fight against SA.


It may be about itnernal power struggles, and a confpict between the Iranian president, and the RGs. It may be about whjat Trumps doers all the time: being unpredictable, playing the madman. Its about trying to drive an even deeper wedge between fearful Europeans who altrready talk aboutdeescalation again, and feet-stomping Trumpian America. Its about sending a message in the endless nuclear research conflict.


Many good reaosns spring to mind why Iran woudl want to strike against its arch enemy's archilles heel. One only needs to want to see them. They are not hard to see at all.



Currently, it all hints at Iran. The missiles available to the Houthis, as the German-English translated link I gave explains, are a bit too short-legged as if they could do this attack from Yemen territory, it would be a range at the maximum of what their known arsenal can do - and then with this kind of precision and even flying turns and circles aorudn the target to strike it from almost the opposite direction?


I think Iran also learned form the Russian green little men attackl on the Crimean peninsula. Russia of course knew that the west would sujspect Russia imemdiately, but stobbornly and rethorically rejecting that it was involved caused the kind of polticla confusion and self-paralysis that the Kremlin wanted and expected. Result: No reaction worth the name from outside the Ukraine. Becasue all the amny oh so concerned Europeans and potlicans cautioned everybody on that the identity of the little green men was "unclear".


It was not unclear. Never, for not even one single day.



I think that the mone attacks in the Gulf and the missile attack now probably are calculated to work by the same logic. Trump did promise tio bring the troops home, and he cares for trying to fulfill the prmsies he amde to those that voted for him. He needs them in the next camaogin again. Thats why he is kind of egg-dancing over the Iran issue and is looking anythging but determined. Under these preconditions it makes no sense to me to assume it could be a new Gulf-version of the "Tonkin"-incident that the US has staged to bring America into a war with Iran. I think Trump will try all he can to keep America out.



Or was it Israel? They have the means, and the motive could be to bring SA into an open war against Israel's biggest enemy, Iran. But that would be quite a dimension for a secret operation by Israel. No, I think I attribute the missile attacks now to the same attacker who is responsible for the mine attacks in past weeks. And I do not think that was Israel either.