[TEC] Dud torpedo chance mod?

[TorpX]

... and a 70% chance of 10 foot depth variation which might be better eliminated since we're all aware of it and set the depth shallower anyway.

This, for me, is the problem with a Torpedo mod, any torpedo mod. If we substitute numbers that we consider appropriate/better/more pleasing, we know what the chances are, and this makes the whole deal rather artificial. The real skippers had to figure it all out by trial and error, wasting fish over the course of several patrols, while we know before we launch the first torp.

That said, a 99% chance of a dud, seems insanely high under any circumstances.

[Sniper297]

Apparently not. While I was playing around I found the speed settings and default depth, "wonder what happens if I do THIS? FIRE IN THE HOLE!!"

So I reset the depth from 1.8 to 6, since the average depth setting is 20 feet I can just leave it instead of having to change it every time. Then I swapped the settings for speed 1 and speed 0 so it would default to high speed - that didn't work, it disabled the speed setting switch for some reason.

So I changed it back the way it was.

Settings for the mark 14;
Dud chances (3);
0-35 - 1
35-70 - 10
70-90 - 10

So anywhere from 35 degrees to 90 degrees (majority of shots) I have a 10% chance of a dud. Out of 20 shots I should have 2 duds. 20 shots, 20 hits, no duds. 2% on prematures for all wave sizes, no prematures but out of 50 shots you would expect 1, 20 shots 0.4, so possibly that should be increased.

Next patrol shooting long range shots at a BB, I had set depth deviation chance to zero, circle probability and gyro problems I left at default - 2% chance of a circle and 2% chance of a screwy gyro with a max deviation of 50 degrees. Fired 3 fish at the BB on slow speed at 8000 yards - all three turned left 50 degrees and went off to la-la land. Fired two more from 5000 yards, both turned left 50 degrees. Fired two more on high speed from 3000 yards, both turned left 50 degrees. Two more at 1500 yards, can you guess what happened next?

Okay, so reloaded the in base save and tried again, same scenario - all shots went hot straight and normal, all hit the BB from various ranges. Seems like the dice are loaded to "when it rains it pours", whatever the chance percentage is, it's gonna use it all on the same patrol. Don't look to me like the random part of the programming is working very well, it seems to be all or nothing.

[TorpX]

Interesting...

If only we could look at the source code - what would we find?

[Sniper297]

Looked over the EXE with a hex editor, at the bottom;

ALL.PROGRAMMERS
NOTE.WRAP.IT.UP
SUITS.SAY
READY.OR.NOT
SHIPPING.NEXT.WE&%6
π^dddddd.xxxx???>??
FATAL.EXCEPTION.ERROR
DIVIDE.BY.ZERO#@?!!!!

[Sniper297]

Alrighty then, reset for dud chance 15 (3.3 out of 22 fish) and premature 10 (2.2 out of 22). 14 shots, 13 hits, 1 miss (snap shot at a turning destroyer, what did you expect?). Then one dud followed by two prematures, 5 for 5 hits after that. So the prematures were just about right although the random chance factor makes the 2 in a row rather unlikely, two in a row following the single dud is even more unlikely. The miss could have been a dud, impossible to tell if it doesn't hit something. One dud out of 22 fish on one patrol followed by 5 duds out of 22 on the next patrol is withing the realm of possibility and would average out the odds while making the skipper tear his hair out. Not sure that's the effect I'm looking for, possibly I should tone it down a bit and keep track over several patrols in a career.

One problem with testing this, a dud hits and bounces off and you get the announcement "it's a dud", but unless you're in external free camera view tracking the torpedo and see the splash there's no other indication of a premature - "Firing tube 1!" followed by nothing at all, check the attack map and the fish is gone. Other problem of course is misses, if I fire and miss there's no way to tell if the miss would have been a dud or a boom, so no way to keep track of the actual average unless I never miss. Possible but tedious since I'll have to avoid any kind of chancy shot during the entire test, that one miss out of 22 shots in the first patrol made the dud percentage test meaningless.

[TorpX]

I can't explain the odd results, but here are some of my thoughts.

I would try to do the tests in a simple mission, where you could readily observe the results, and repeat as often as needed. Maybe only vary one element at a time; at least at first.

Another thing, we ordinarily think the game rolls the dice for our torps at launch (or impact) because that is the way we would do it in a game. But, perhaps the game determines duds and malfunctions when we load the torps at base, so that changing files and replaying a save, might have no effect.

About the gyro problems; maybe the TDC itself was acting up? Otherwise, it is hard to fathom your results.

[deicide]

Actually I think the thing your not taking into consideration is that the perentage chance is for EACH seperate torpedo fired. It is not cumalative, so with a 10% chance for each torpedo to be a dud it does not mean that after firing 9 you now have a 90% chance for the next one to be a dud. EACH torpedo percentage chance is calculated seperately so that 10th torpedo still only has a 10% chance of being a dud.

Hope this makes sense!

-deicide