More Concealed Carriers=Less Violent Crime.

Subnuts · 07-13-14, 07:31 AM

Listen guys, concealed carriers work.

I was in a convenience store the other day getting a Big Gulp, when a dude pulled out a gun and demanded the clerk give him all the money in the register. The teller pushed a button on his register, and before you knew, an adorable little two-foot long aircraft carrier popped out of the hotdog cooker and started launching wave after wave of inch-long F-18s at him. The guy just stood there as microscopic laser-guided bombs and AGM-88s struck him in the chest. The perp crapped his pants and ran all the way to the UN, insisting the whole way that he never had any WMDs.

'Murica.

Catfish · 07-13-14, 07:36 AM

^

Platapus · 07-13-14, 09:56 AM

We have not had a foreign terrorist attack in the US during the period of time that the TV show 24 was shown.

That must also mean something... right...well....no.. actually.

Causation has to be proved. One can't just take the stance that since causation was not "un-proven" that it must be present.

Andy is bring up cogent points that are worth understanding.

Feuer Frei! · 07-13-14, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

W
Causation has to be proved. One can't just take the stance that since causation was not "un-proven" that it must be present

Proved? Sure, but not by correlation.
Identifying a reason behind an argument or study or your bad example doesn't mean that the results or conclusions are false.

Quote:

Andy is bring up cogent points that are worth understanding.

Because you agree with him.

If you look at his argument that correlation is the consequence of a causal relationship, which is a flawed analysis, then sure, jump on his train and choo choo away.

07-13-14, 07:41 PM

Where have I ever stated that " correlation is the consequence of a causal relationship"? Nowhere. Learn to read...

Feuer Frei! · 07-13-14, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyJWest

Learn to read...

I can read just fine for a German fella. Better than some of you natives to the english.

You used: "The study provides no evidence whatsoever that the correlation is the consequence of a causal relationship".

Which is your summation of the survey.

To use "correlation is the consequence of a causal relationship"
is flawed.

Now, if that is what you used to describe your casual dismissal of the survey, then so be it.
But to use that is flawed. You must place some belief in that, surely.

If you didn't, you would have used a different way of casually dismissing the survey.

Unfortunately, you used a flawed part in your dismissal.
So expect to be picked up on it.

Learn to read. (your own language).

And next time you want to provide feedback on a thread that you may not agree with, i suggest rethinking how to post an initial response to something you don't agree with.

Shows me a few things about your mentality.

Good luck with the english lessons.

I cba debating the flaws in the way you dismissed the survey.

07-13-14, 09:14 PM

Feuer Frei, your assessment of your skills in the English language is flawed.

Skybird · 07-14-14, 06:38 AM

Correlation coefficients per se are no values expressing a causal link, yes. Cum hoc ergo propter hoc.

But:

A causal link between number of carrier poermits and crime rate could be imagined. A link between temperature and number of pirates - well, needs much, much more imagination.

If correlations would be completely meaningless, nobody in science would calculate them. The art lies in understanding what kind of two variable get correlated to each other. And that is the problem with that famous temperature-pirate- "argument".

A correlation never is a sufficient argument in itself, but it can be a supportive one, or not (depending on the kind of variables compared, like said above).

If an intellectual analysis of the nature of two variables you compare implies the possebility or results in the conclusion they have a relation of causal nature of some sort and amount, THEN a correlation coefficient is expected to describe the intensity, the total effectiveness of a causal link indeed. THIS IS OFTEN OVERSEEN.

That is why the correlation in the permits-crime relation bears much more reasons and is more likely to hint at a causal link, then the temperature-piracy example. A high correlation alone is no argument for causality yes or no. The decision on causality assumed or not has to be made by content of the variables, their quality, what they mean and stand for. And only then you take a high correlation as an argument for a strong causal effect.

Confounding variables always have to be taken into account. The possibility for confounding variables being effective in the permits-crime-relation needs further examination. The existence of confounding variables in the temperature-piracy-relation can be taken almost for granted. And this again is an argument why the one can be assumed to have a higher probability for a causal link than the other.

And just to show what a bean counter I can be: a correlation different than zero ALWAYS is the description of a link between two variables. Its just that that link can not only be huge or small, or causal, but also one of chance (probability). Statistics then speak of stochastic or non-deterministic links.

Schroeder · 07-14-14, 06:49 AM

Though it's still not a sufficient correlation by itself either. More info is needed. Was the number of permits the only thing that changed that could have led to the decline in crime? Maybe other measures were taken like more police patrols, CCTV, shrink of population size and so on. So while it's not necessarily wrong to say that more carried weapons mean less crime it also is no proof. We have to look at the whole picture to see what influences what.

07-14-14, 06:59 AM

Quote:

Though it's still not a sufficient correlation by itself either. More info is needed. Was the number of permits the only thing that changed that could have led to the decline in crime? Maybe other measures were taken like more police patrols, CCTV, shrink of population size and so on. So while it's not necessarily wrong to say that more carried weapons mean less crime it also is no proof. We have to look at the whole picture to see what influences what.

Well if you look at his previous study based on his faked research people found things in the real figures which actually did match to the apparent changes in crime trends.
But it wasn't guns it was things like the illegal drugs market.

Jimbuna · 07-15-14, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Subnuts

Listen guys, concealed carriers work.

I was in a convenience store the other day getting a Big Gulp, when a dude pulled out a gun and demanded the clerk give him all the money in the register. The teller pushed a button on his register, and before you knew, an adorable little two-foot long aircraft carrier popped out of the hotdog cooker and started launching wave after wave of inch-long F-18s at him. The guy just stood there as microscopic laser-guided bombs and AGM-88s struck him in the chest. The perp crapped his pants and ran all the way to the UN, insisting the whole way that he never had any WMDs.

'Murica.

Pictures or it didn't happen.

clive bradbury · 07-15-14, 10:56 AM

'Crime in the UK is currently at its lowest level in 30 years, having decreased dramatically from its peak in 1995. For example, 4.2 million violent crimes were counted in 1995 compared to 1.94 million in 2011/2012.'

As we have some of the most stringent gun controls of any nation, one must conclude that strict firearm control and reduced possession leads to a significant reduction in violent crime.

Or could there, as others have pointed out, be other factors involved? Maybe one should seriously doubt US research carried out by a known gun advocate funded by the NRA? A simplistic view of a very complex situation.

07-13-14, 07:31 AM	#1
Subnuts The Old Man Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Connecticut Posts: 1,658 Downloads: 14 Uploads: 0	Listen guys, concealed carriers work. I was in a convenience store the other day getting a Big Gulp, when a dude pulled out a gun and demanded the clerk give him all the money in the register. The teller pushed a button on his register, and before you knew, an adorable little two-foot long aircraft carrier popped out of the hotdog cooker and started launching wave after wave of inch-long F-18s at him. The guy just stood there as microscopic laser-guided bombs and AGM-88s struck him in the chest. The perp crapped his pants and ran all the way to the UN, insisting the whole way that he never had any WMDs. 'Murica. __________________ My Amazon.com reviews

07-13-14, 09:56 AM	#3
Platapus Fleet Admiral Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 19,422 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 0	We have not had a foreign terrorist attack in the US during the period of time that the TV show 24 was shown. That must also mean something... right...well....no.. actually. Causation has to be proved. One can't just take the stance that since causation was not "un-proven" that it must be present. Andy is bring up cogent points that are worth understanding. __________________ abusus non tollit usum - A right should NOT be withheld from people on the basis that some tend to abuse that right.

07-14-14, 06:38 AM	#8
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,762 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Correlation coefficients per se are no values expressing a causal link, yes. Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. But: A causal link between number of carrier poermits and crime rate could be imagined. A link between temperature and number of pirates - well, needs much, much more imagination. If correlations would be completely meaningless, nobody in science would calculate them. The art lies in understanding what kind of two variable get correlated to each other. And that is the problem with that famous temperature-pirate- "argument". A correlation never is a sufficient argument in itself, but it can be a supportive one, or not (depending on the kind of variables compared, like said above). If an intellectual analysis of the nature of two variables you compare implies the possebility or results in the conclusion they have a relation of causal nature of some sort and amount, THEN a correlation coefficient is expected to describe the intensity, the total effectiveness of a causal link indeed. THIS IS OFTEN OVERSEEN. That is why the correlation in the permits-crime relation bears much more reasons and is more likely to hint at a causal link, then the temperature-piracy example. A high correlation alone is no argument for causality yes or no. The decision on causality assumed or not has to be made by content of the variables, their quality, what they mean and stand for. And only then you take a high correlation as an argument for a strong causal effect. Confounding variables always have to be taken into account. The possibility for confounding variables being effective in the permits-crime-relation needs further examination. The existence of confounding variables in the temperature-piracy-relation can be taken almost for granted. And this again is an argument why the one can be assumed to have a higher probability for a causal link than the other. And just to show what a bean counter I can be: a correlation different than zero ALWAYS is the description of a link between two variables. Its just that that link can not only be huge or small, or causal, but also one of chance (probability). Statistics then speak of stochastic or non-deterministic links. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 07-14-14 at 07:07 AM.

07-14-14, 06:49 AM	#9
Schroeder Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Banana Republic of Germany Posts: 6,170 Downloads: 62 Uploads: 0	Though it's still not a sufficient correlation by itself either. More info is needed. Was the number of permits the only thing that changed that could have led to the decline in crime? Maybe other measures were taken like more police patrols, CCTV, shrink of population size and so on. So while it's not necessarily wrong to say that more carried weapons mean less crime it also is no proof. We have to look at the whole picture to see what influences what. __________________ Putting Germ back into Germany.

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Switch to Linear Mode Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

07-13-14, 07:36 AM	#2
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,819 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	^

07-13-14, 07:41 PM	#5
AndyJWest Stowaway Posts: n/a Downloads: Uploads:	Where have I ever stated that " correlation is the consequence of a causal relationship"? Nowhere. Learn to read...

07-13-14, 09:14 PM	#7
AndyJWest Stowaway Posts: n/a Downloads: Uploads:	Feuer Frei, your assessment of your skills in the English language is flawed.

07-15-14, 10:56 AM	#12
clive bradbury Captain Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: stoke-on-trent, UK Posts: 492 Downloads: 105 Uploads: 0	'Crime in the UK is currently at its lowest level in 30 years, having decreased dramatically from its peak in 1995. For example, 4.2 million violent crimes were counted in 1995 compared to 1.94 million in 2011/2012.' As we have some of the most stringent gun controls of any nation, one must conclude that strict firearm control and reduced possession leads to a significant reduction in violent crime. Or could there, as others have pointed out, be other factors involved? Maybe one should seriously doubt US research carried out by a known gun advocate funded by the NRA? A simplistic view of a very complex situation.