Quote:
Originally Posted by c13Garrison
I havn't been able to be much involved lately (rehearsal season has started) but I'll toss my 2 bits in on this.
I would very much like to know what a "historic" intercept chance for US subs on Ultra convoys was. By my experience it is about 1 in 12. You can travel to the area indicated and yet still miss the convoy entirely if it is beyond your detection range.
I know the many boxes and diamonds on the stock game are not realistic and gamey, but it would be nice to be able to at least draw a plot on that convoy from Rabaul to Pelieu. Even if its 800 miles and frought with margin of error, at least I would feel I was putting myself in the best chance to succeed.
Hope everyone is well! 
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Regarding RSRD, you won't get a lot of ultra's until later war, about mid 43 onward. Also keep in mind groups make several course changes, so often you're left out in left field. Still, most follow historic shipping lanes.
As stated earlier, RSRD spawns groups and port and despawns at ports. Try to figure which port it is headed towards. If you can find a bottleneck or straight to ambush in, instead of trying to catch it in the open.