A hypothetical question.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Rockin Robbins

And the real Admiral Halsey did dodge a pretty good bullet there. Ironic, since he fired that bullet himself.

Alas, Adm. Halsey did not have all his "I"s dotted as he chased the Japanese carriers. Fortuntely, Rear Adm. Oldendorf, with Adm Kincaid's foresight, had his "T"s crossed at the Suragao Strait, the last major use of the classic maneuver.

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Alas, Adm. Halsey did not have all his "I"s dotted as he chased the Japanese carriers. Fortuntely, Rear Adm. Oldendorf, with Adm Kincaid's foresight, had his "T"s crossed at the Suragao Strait, the last major use of the classic maneuver.

If only Kurita had stayed and attack the landing for a few hours. I bet if he tried to leave after that he would have found Oldendorf blocking his way with the Pearl Harbor force.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

If only Kurita had stayed and attack the landing for a few hours. I bet if he tried to leave after that he would have found Oldendorf blocking his way with the Pearl Harbor force.

There will certainly be more American deaths and injuries than there were historically. His forces will be shooting down American planes that historically survived and damaging American ships that historically were not scratched at Leyte Gulf. If his forces survive long enough to tangle with Oldendorf’s task force, (and that is a big if), then he is likely to inflict some damage before his forces are ultimately destroyed. Think of the causalities that would result if Yamato manages to put one shell into Pennsylvania's magazines before Yamato and Kurita is overwhelmed.

And overwhelmed Kurita must be. The forces he is rushing into are just too vast and no matter how many he manages to destroy, there are always more over just over the horizon. Kurita’'s forces began being suffering attrition a couple of days earlier when Dace and Darter attacked in Palawan Passage. He got hammered more as he crossed the Sibuyan Sea and suffered more damage in his encounter with Taffy 3. By the time he turned around he had few undamaged assets. And things are not going to get any better. If Taffy 2 and Taffy 1 get between him and the gulf, then he has to go through them. If they stand off, then they can conduct unencumbered air operations. Either way, he continues to have ships sunk or left behind and every time he loses a ship, the opposition gets to focus its attention on the ones that are left. Then, he has to fight his way through Oldendorf and the escort vessels in the gulf itself. Anything that survives long enough to shoot at the transports or forces ashore is not going to be very combat effective and will quickly succumb to Third Fleet units.

In short, Kurita might make it into Leyte Gulf, but he is not going to make it out. He will certainly take a lot of Americans with him, but the destruction of his force will not have any significant impact on the invasion, much less the war. Kurita is up against what Lincoln called the "“terrible arithmetic"” and nothing he does can alter that basic equation.

[Rockin Robbins]

There was nothing in Taffy 2 or Taffy 1 that needed to slow Kurita's force at all. They didn't have to be allowed to get close enough to put a single shell on any of Kurita's ships, while Kurita's cruisers and battleships only needed a half dozen shells to sink any of the DDs and DEs Taffy 1 and 2 could offer.

What rattled Kurita was the headlong attack by DE's that couldn't hurt him. Kurita over-thought the process and then reasoned "if they are attacking like that they are stalling for the backup that is going to kill me." After all, DEs don't have any business attacking capital ships and wouldn't do so without a good strategic reason, would they?

Well, the answer was yes, they would. Which drove Kurita to the wrong conclusion and he called it quits for the day. After the war he regretted backing out. For good reason. There was no saving Japanese lives by living to fight another day. Their only goal was to trade for as many American lives as possible. By backing out Kurita lost the best deal he could have made.

But he lived to see the end of the war, which he probably wouldn't have.