Murky Waters

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by JU_88

1) It hasnt actually happend yet.
2) There is no actual proof, where is this secret document? who leaked it, who translated it? etc. Who knows how much truth is in it, should I believe everything I read at face value?
3) "Iran could be planning to create a vast oil spill in the Strait of Hormuz," So it could be true, or it could be news sensationalism (again)..... which brings me back to 'speculation'.

You could say the same about the Iranian weapon program. You could have said the same about the Pakistani or Southafrican or Israeli weapon program before they materialized.

Does the scenario make sense? Very much. Is it within the rechc of Iran? Absolutely. Would it hurt their enemies and pose a threat that holds the chance to intimidate them to an effect? Definitely so.

Does this support or weaken the claim made by intel?

He who always waits for formalities being fulfilled and paperwork catching up with reality, will often find that he comes too late. And Iran, mind you, is said to me seriously strangled by those sanctions. I say since years that nevertheless they will not give up their weapon program. Using such desperate and devastating means like artifical oil plagues, just illustrates that and, from my view, make sense when assuming they will not give up there program but will fight it through, no matter what.

Right that the sanctions are hurting them adds tremendous trustworthiness to intel's claim.

When I approach a distant traffic light and see it switching from green to yellow, then I do not know for sure that next it will switch to red instead to green again.

But it is a reasonable assumption to assume that red is next. Ignoring that and accelerating because one doe snot know that the red light will be on when I am there, could and will mean trouble for me and others.