Turkey's new IFF system

[Osmium Steele]

Ankara's Star Gazete says country's new F-16 radar system modified to recategorize Israeli targets as hostile. Order said to come directly from PM Erdogan's office; naval, submarine radar systems to be changed next

Source

By my estimation, Turkey has about 8-10 months to act militarily against Israel. They do NOT want to be in a hot war with Israel when/if a Republican president takes office in January 2013.

I think the current president could successfully hide behind our NATO obligations. A Republican would get roasted alive by his voter base and NATO be damned.

[CCIP]

Turkey's not going to go to war with Israel no matter who's in office, or if they're that stupid, they'll go to war no matter who's in office. This is all just loud gesturing. They have very little to win from this, and a lot to lose, even if Israel goes against them alone militarily.

Likewise, I think if you think the current Republican candidates would seriously turn around and attack a NATO member over a foreign country, that's one more reason Obama's gonna stay in office for another term.

[Skybird]

A local minor military incident - most likely over turkish attempts to break the blockade, is absolutely possible. A full scale hot war between Turkey and Israel currently is not.

Most likely scenario is that the Turks will provoke military action by the Israelis, and then claim the victim role and pointing fingers at Israel. Like with flotilla 1.0, this time just on a military scale. For example triggering an Israeli torpedoe or air attack on a Turkish escort that acted aggressively or tried to lure the Israelis into a first strike.

Anyhow, Turkey's role in NATO is over. They should be excluded with or without their agreement

I hope the US would prefer their relation to Israel over that with Turkey, since Turkey since many years means nothing but troubles for Washington, slamming the door into Washington's face several times in the past ten years.

Wikileaks released documents that Washington also considers Turkey a lost case anyway, and counts Turkey as falling to Islamic fundamentalism anyway. An assessment that indicates quite some competence in the US diplomnatic service.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Anyhow, Turkey's role in NATO is over. They should be excluded.

Conversely, despite the obviously-changed nature of Turkish politics lately, Turkey is as important as it ever was to NATO and the US. It's a foothold in the Middle East that they still very much like.

On the other hand, one wonders if NATO's role in anything as such should have been over years ago. And let's not forget the question of what the US is doing in the Middle East politics in the first place.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Conversely, despite the obviously-changed nature of Turkish politics lately, Turkey is as important as it ever was to NATO and the US. It's a foothold in the Middle East that they still very much like.

On the other hand, one wonders if NATO's role in anything as such should have been over years ago. And let's not forget the question of what the US is doing in the Middle East politics in the first place.

Turkey blocked supply routes and denied flight and logistical operaion through its' territory during Iraq 2003. They also are much more focussed on their claimed cominance in the region, than on Washington's interests now. As I said, Washington already has given them up, internal documents say. Search the Wikileaked files from half a year ago, the one relase that caused so much trouble, it was in there, somewhere.

As for Israerl, there best card would be to close their ties with India. The EU they cannot trust, and Washington sooner or later may be too weak and may need to make compromising concessions to the arabas as if it wpould guarantee unconditional support for Israel. The latest weapons deals over fighterplanes for Saudi-Arabia and the refusal to consider Israeli concerns over that relativizing of Israeli air power are a gentle hint for that already.

[MH]

Yea... Turkey's is buying its way to harts and minds of ME.
Learn how it should be done.

Turkey blocked supply routes and denied flight and logistical operaion through its' territory during Iraq 2003.

So what?
That wasn't a NATO operation so Turkey had no obligations at all.
I seem to recall lots of arguements about how Turkey was right and the others were wrong and that Turkey would be really dumb to be supporting the terrorists who were attacking it.
I think there was this fella called Skybird who was very very vocal in that avenue

[Osmium Steele]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Turkey's not going to go to war with Israel no matter who's in office, or if they're that stupid, they'll go to war no matter who's in office. This is all just loud gesturing. They have very little to win from this, and a lot to lose, even if Israel goes against them alone militarily.

I seriously doubt that Turkey will pull the trigger. As you said, too much to lose.

Originally Posted by CCIP

Likewise, I think if you think the current Republican candidates would seriously turn around and attack a NATO member over a foreign country, that's one more reason Obama's gonna stay in office for another term.

Over Botswana, no. Over Israel, darn straight.

I believe that all of the current candidates with the exception of Ron Paul and John Huntsman, if push came to shove, would certainly side with Israel over Turkey and as I said, NATO be damned.

There is a significant proportion of the political right in this country who no longer see a need for NATO, especially after Libya made the more complacent of us wonder just what the heck NATO is good for anymore.
I've been wondering that since the unification of Germany.

Also consider the Republican voter base with regards to the biblical imperative to stand with Israel. It is a much more powerful force than you realize.