Syria: Refugees flee border camps as troops deploy

[Jimbuna]

Hundreds of Syrian refugees are fleeing across the border into Turkey to escape an assault by Syrian troops in the area, witnesses say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13886598

Can't somebody discover oil over there...and quickly for heavens sake!!

[HunterICX]

Where's the UN with a no-fly zone now....

HunterICX

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by HunterICX

Where's the UN with a no-fly zone now....

HunterICX

Precisely

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by HunterICX

Where's the UN with a no-fly zone now....

HunterICX

Actually it's pretty embarrassing right now to be in the UN and NATO.

[BossMark]

Hmm I wonder where they will end up

[Jimbuna]

If I was in charge of those Syrian troops I'd be very mindful of the Turks losing patience.

All it would take is a few stray rounds ending up flying across the border to set it all up a cross border incursion.

[HunterICX]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

Actually it's pretty embarrassing right now to be in the UN and NATO.

I think we could be embarrased of beeing part of the NATO/UN since the Bosnian war

HunterICX

[Castout]

Originally Posted by HunterICX

Where's the UN with a no-fly zone now....

HunterICX

Too many people who say this actually not wishing for any UN military intervention.

I understand it's meant as sarcasm but the irony is tantamount to hypocrisy.

For me the Syrians fleeing their own government crackdown deserve some kind of help be it humanitarian aid in Turkey and perhaps some kind of international political pressure on Assad regime to even military intervention.

But to be realistic, military intervention would not be the best option considering Syria's military might and the potential that international military intervention would rally the Syrians military and more people to Assad besides the state of the west gloomy monetary background.

Sometimes the best way to prove someone is wrong is to let them continue doing wrong making him a fool in the eyes of the world, gaining shame and losing his credibility in the process both to his own people and on the international stage.

The world will not forget what happened and is happening in Bahrain and Syria. These regimes have lost their credibility. They have become a laughing stock. They may be too thick skinned to admit that but make no mistake they know that.

Just picture this: Whenever the Bahrain king came into a room everyone would think 'look the king who prosecuted doctors for saving the lives of his own people'. Not a very noble impression I tell you. The right word is 'deflated'. Any decent investor now would think twice before investing in Bahrain, knowing what kind of regime they are dealing with and the volatile political atmosphere that prevails there thanks to a rule basing on fear and persecution.

Can't somebody discover oil over there...and quickly for heavens sake!!

What are they going to do? Nothing.
Syria has no oil but does have WMDs and a ready made experienced terrorist force. Match that up with the a mutual defence alliance with the nuts that can make oil shipments prohibitively expensive in addition to the mess that was made in Iraq Afghanistan and now Libya and you can see that bugger all is going to be done and there is very little in terms of military intervention that can be done......Unless of course you can get Russia and China as permanant members of the Security Couincil to somehow contribute massively for "democracy", which is about as likely as Henry Cooper returning to the ring

[MH]

'Hezbollah preparing for war against Israel to protect Syria's Assad'

Sources close to the Shiite group say it is committed to deflect what it sees as a foreign campaign against Damascus.

By ReutersTags:
Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group is preparing for a possible war with Israel to relieve perceived Western pressure to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad, its guardian ally, sources close to the movement say.
The radical Shi'ite group, which has a powerful militia armed by Damascus and Iran, is watching the unrest in neighboring Syria with alarm and is determined to prevent the West from exploiting popular protests to bring down Assad.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah addressing supporters on a giant screen during a rally near Beirut on August 3, 2010
Photo by: Reuters
Hezbollah supported pro-democracy movements that toppled Western-backed leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, but officials say it will not stand idly by as international pressure mounts on Assad to yield to protesters.
It is committed to do whatever it takes politically to help deflect what it sees as a foreign campaign against Damascus, but it is also readying for a possible war with Israel if Assad is weakened.
"Hezbollah will never intervene in Syria. This is an internal issue for President Bashar to tackle. But when it sees the West gearing up to bring him down, it will not just watch," a Lebanese official close to the group's thinking told Reuters.
"This is a battle for existence for the group and it is time to return the favor (of Syria's support). It will do that by fending off some of the international pressure," he added.
The militant group, established nearly 30 years ago to confront Israel's occupation of south Lebanon, fought an inconclusive 34-day war with Israel in 2006.
Hezbollah and Syria have both denied that the group has sent fighters to support a military crackdown on the wave of protests against Assad's rule.
Hezbollah believes the West is working to reshape the Middle East by replacing Assad with a ruler friendly to Israel and hostile to itself.
"The region now is at war, a war between what is good and what is backed by Washington... Syria is the good," said a Lebanon-based Arab official close to Syria.
He said the United States, which lost an ally when Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February, "wants to shift the crisis" by supporting protests against its adversary.
"For us this will be confronted in the best possible way," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Analysts rule out the possibility of a full-scale regional war involving Syria, Iran and Lebanon on one side against Israel backed by the U.S. A war pitting Hezbollah against Israel was more likely, they said.
"There might be limited wars here or there but nobody has the interest (in a regional war)," said Lebanese analyst Oussama Safa. "The region is of course heading towards radical change... How it will be arranged and where it will lead is not clear."
Hezbollah inflicted serious damage and casualties by firing missiles deep into Israel during the 2006 conflict, and was able to sustain weeks of rocket attacks despite a major Israeli military incursion into Lebanon.
Western intelligence sources say the movement's arsenal has been more than replenished since the fighting ended, with European-led UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon powerless to prevent supplies entering mostly from Syria.
Syria, which borders Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Jordan, has regional influence because of its alliance with Iran and its continued role in Lebanon, despite ending a 29-year military presence there in 2005. It also has an influence in Iraq.
"If the situation in Syria collapses it will have repercussions that will go beyond Syria," the Arab official said. "None of Syria's allies would accept the fall of Syria even if it led to turning the table upside down -- war (with Israel) could be one of the options."
The Lebanese official said: "All options are open including opening the fronts in Golan (Heights) and in south Lebanon."
Palestinian protests last month on the Lebanese and Syrian frontlines with Israel were "a message that Syria will not be left alone facing an Israeli-American campaign," he said.
Israel and Syria are technically at war, but their frontier had been calm since the war in 1973, when Israel repelled a Syrian assault to recapture the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
For Syria's allies in Lebanon, the first step to support Damascus has already been taken. After months of delay, Prime Minister Najib Mikati formed a new Lebanese government last week dominated by pro-Syrian parties, including Hezbollah.
That followed five months of political vacuum after Hezbollah and its allies toppled Western-backed Saad Hariri's coalition in a dispute over a UN-backed tribunal investigating the killing in 2005 of statesman Rafik Hariri, Saad's father.
The tribunal is expected to accuse members of the Shi'ite group in the killing, and some Lebanese had believed that the delay in forming a government was deliberate, to avoid the crisis a new government might face when indictments are issued.
"Our people thought at first the vacuum would be in our interest but after the events in Syria we have noticed that the vacuum is harmful," said the Lebanese official.
The still confidential indictment was amended last month after the prosecutor said "new evidence emerged" but Syria and its allies suspect it will now target Syrian officials. Both Syria and Hezbollah deny any role in killing Hariri.
The official said the new government might halt the state's cooperation with and contribution to funding the court, as well as withdrawing Lebanese judges from the tribunal.
"The government in its new form will not allow Lebanon to be used against Syria, or those who are promoting the American agenda on the expense of Syria," he said.
Tension in Lebanon increased in the first weeks of the uprising against Assad when Syria accused Hariri supporters of funding and arming protesters, a charge they denied.
"As Syria stood by Lebanon's side during the July war in 2006 (between Hezbollah and Israel), Lebanon will be on its side to face this war that is no less dangerous," the official said.
So far, Syria's allies believe that Assad has things under control and that the unrest, in which rights groups say 1,300 people have been killed, has not posed a threat on his rule.
While Hezbollah's fate is not linked exclusively to Assad's future, his departure would make life more difficult for the group, which depends on Syria's borders for arms supply.
"Syria is like the lung for Hezbollah...it is its backup front where it gets its weapon and other stuff," said another Lebanese official who declined to be named.
Formed under the guidance of Iran's religious establishment, Hezbollah had a thorny start with late President Hafez Assad, but later emerged as a powerful Syrian ally. Relations improved further after Bashar succeeded his father in 2000.
"Hezbollah is extremely tense and they are concerned about the developments in Syria," said Hilal Khashan, a political analyst at the American University in Beirut.
"The storm is building up now and after it everything will change...In all cases, no matter what happens in Syria, developments there will not be in favor for Hezbollah."
While he dismissed the possibility of a regional war, Augustus Richard Norton, author of a book on Hezbollah, said an Israeli Lebanese war may be possible, adding he believed Israel was likely to strike first.
"It is not too challenging to imagine a scenario for a war between Israel and Lebanon to erupt, especially given the Obama administration's diffident and permissive approach to Israel.
"It is far more likely that Israel will pursue a war with the goal of crippling Hezbollah and punishing Lebanon than that a war will be intentionally provoked by Hezbollah," he said.
In the meantime Hezbollah, which has praised other Arab uprisings and enjoys strong support among ordinary Arabs over its confrontations with Israel, has seen its image tarnished because of its support for Assad.
"The events in Syria have not impacted Hezbollah in a significant strategic sense, but have certainly put the party in an uncomfortable position," said Elias Muhanna, a Middle East scholar at Harvard.
"The fact that (Hezbollah leader Hassan) Nasrallah has supported the regime's war against the opposition in Syria while attacking similar regime actions in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, and Yemen has been pointed out by many as a blatant double standard."
Hezbollah argues there is no contradiction in its position, saying Assad has popular support and is committed to reform.
"When the regime is against Israel and is committed to reforms then Hezbollah decision is to be by the side of the people and the leadership through urging them for dialogue and partnership," the Lebanese official said.
"That is why the group is in harmony with itself when it comes to Syria. It has its standards clear," he added.
"For the resistance and Iran, the partnership with Syria is a principal and crucial issue, there is no compromise. Each time Syria is targeted there will be a response."

.......

Go figure....

Senior Israeli source: Iran actively helping Syria squash demonstrations

Not only is Iran supplying equipment to the Syrian army, the source says, Iran's Revolutionary Guard also organized demonstrations against Israel on Nakba and Naksa Day.

A senior Israeli source says Iran is involved in the suppressing of the anti-regime demonstrations in Syria. Iran's Revolutionary Guard and the Al-Quds force, commanded by Gen. Qassem Suleimani, are operating throughout the country, the source says.

The source told Haaretz there is clear information on Iran's involvement in the crushing of the protests, as well as the participation of Hezbollah. Their role is not limited to shootings; Iran has also supplied equipment to the Syrian army, including sniper rifles and communications systems for disrupting the Internet in the country, the source said.

Syrian residents and media reports say men in military uniforms have been heard speaking poor Arabic or Farsi among themselves.
"In the Syrian army there is a ban on beards, so when we see military people with beards we can assume they're not part of the regular Syrian army," the source said.
Iran's involvement reached a new zenith, the source said, when the Revolutionary Guard organized the demonstrations against Israel on the Golan Heights as part of the events on Nakba Day on May 15 and Naksa Day on June 5.
"Initial reports about the presence of Iranians in the suppression of the demonstrations were from the town of Daraa, where the mass demonstrations began. However, since then it is possible to see Iran's presence in many other places," the source said.
"During the Palestinian memorial days, the Revolutionary Guard organized the busing that was required to transfer the demonstrators to the border. The initiative was not Syrian. However, the Syrian army approved the transfer of the buses to the border. On Nakba Day they [the Iranians] were also involved in the demonstrations in Lebanon, something that was not backed by Hezbollah and was opposed by the Lebanese Army. This is the reason why in Lebanon there were not confrontations and demonstrations on Naksa Day," the source said.
On Naksa Day, the Revolutionary Guard rallied Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command to send hundreds of demonstrators to the border.
"The background to the riots that broke out in the Yarmuk refugee camp the day after the demonstrations on the Golan Heights was largely the failure to pay the money that had been promised to the participants: $1,000 for each participant and $10,000 for anyone who became a 'martyr' - killed in the demonstrations," the source said.
"The families of those killed were furious with Ahmed Jibril, whom they blamed for dragging their children to a confrontation with the Israelis. Hundreds took part in the demonstration because they had not been paid. Jibril's security guards feared that he would be harmed, and they opened fire, killing 14 residents of the camp. At the time there were senior Hamas figures in the camp."
The senior Israeli source said the likelihood of similar demonstrations on the Israel-Syria border in the near future is low. He agreed with Defense Minister Ehud Barak's assessment in an interview with Haaretz two weeks ago: The process that will end the Assad regime is irreversible.
"His regime's legitimacy is lost. The harder he strikes, the more people take to the streets," the source said. He added that "in the end certain senior officers in the Syrian army - Sunnis - will reach an agreement with senior Alawi officers, providing sufficient security guarantees for the Alawi community. They will find a political solution that will extricate the country from the crisis and remove President Bashar Assad from power."
However, desertions from the Syrian army have so far been limited to the lower ranks - below battalion commanders. The senior source says there is a certain amount of resentment in the army because regular forces and "military security" forces have been used to suppress demonstrations.
He added that at Jisr al-Shoughour a "military security" force was sent to deal with the demonstrations but ran into an ambush, and 120 soldiers were killed.
"There are weapons in many places in Syria, as in all parts of the Middle East, and so far many soldiers and members of the security forces have been hit by gunfire fired by armed supporters of the opposition," the source added.
Meanwhile, as confrontations between demonstrators and the military continued in Syria yesterday, Assad announced yet another amnesty for everyone arrested in the protests. A pro-Assad demonstration took place in Damascus, but Arab media outlets noted that the participants had been forced to attend, sometimes by labor unions.

[Oberon]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Turkey do something at some point, there's a lot of tension at that border.

[MH]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I wouldn't be surprised to see Turkey do something at some point, there's a lot of tension at that border.

Turkey was a strong supporter of Syria and Assad in resent years.
Now is siting on the fence doing the right thing in the eyes of Sunni people gaining even stronger support as leader of Arab world.
As long as the situation in Syria is unclear i don't believe they will do something. It would also conflict with Iranian interest.

[Jimbuna]

It's also possible Turkey may take the opportunity to show the rest of the Arab world that they are the dominant power in the region.