US unemployment rate falls to new two-year low of 8.8%

Originally Posted by Platapus

Perhaps there is more to the economy of the entire country than the company you work for?

some kind of wizard here.

you and mookie should get together. lol

[TorpX]

I'm not impressed. This is like when they tell us that inflation is low, but the numbers do not count food or energy because they are too "volatile". This makes perfect sense if you do not eat and live a pre-industrial lifestyle.


Also:

If you look beneath the "strong" numbers that headline April's jobs reports you quickly find plenty of other, distinctly weaker numbers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12940054

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Source.

your source is contridictory to what is stated in the original post. Manufacturing dipped in the OP. Here yours say it is trending up. Double talk!

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by Platapus

Perhaps there is more to the economy of the entire country than the company you work for?

Obviously. But i only give a rats ass about local conditions, because those are what effect me. I could care less if Johnny whats his face in Timbucktoo has a job. That has no bearing on my well being at all.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by TorpX

I'm not impressed. This is like when they tell us that inflation is low, but the numbers do not count food or energy because they are too "volatile". This makes perfect sense if you do not eat and live a pre-industrial lifestyle.


Also:


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12940054

Indeed. The figured have been monkey with so much that to say they're an accurate census of everyone who's employed or unemployed is not true. A lot of what's used is estimation and statistical modelling.

What the value of the numbers is is that they're data points in a longer series. The news media latches on to each month's release like it's a huge deal, but ignores the context of the data. It's as if someone were telling you a story one word at a time, one a month. You wouldn't focus on the individual word so much as you would look at what came before it so as to form a sentence. So it's more important to say that 8.8% this month is less than 9.8% last month than to scrutinize 8.8% and say the true rate of unemployment is...say 8.9% or 10% of 15% or whatever instead. If you calculate the number using the same methodology as you used last month, you'll track the general trend of the economy and as they say in my business, the trend is your friend.

There's also the case that total employment is sort of a lagging indicator in the economy. Businesses generally don't hire new workers until economic conditions have improved enough or are expected to improve enough in the near term to warrant adding workers. But that's not to say that there's no forward looking data in the non-farm payrolls report either. Hours worked and temporary hours worked are a good indicator of the future direction of the economy - businesses adjust the hours their workers are scheduled for, or will bring on temps before they go to the expense of hiring or firing permanent employees. Income is another good one - if the labor market is slack, then employees don't have as much leverage to demand raises. They can be replaced with someone who's out of work and willing to do their job at their old rate. Conversely, if you see income increasing, it means that the labor market is tighter and employers are more willing to pay up to keep the employees that they have.

So there's value in the data. It just takes a little digging and thinking for yourself, rather than swallowing what the news media feeds you.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

your source is contridictory to what is stated in the original post. Manufacturing dipped in the OP. Here yours say it is trending up. Double talk!

The ISM report is a measurement of manufacturing activity for March. They take a survey of respondents and ask questions like "did you make more product this month than you did last month?" and "what percentage of capacity is your operation currently running at?" in order to get a read on actual manufacturing activity.

The payroll report is simply payrolls - employees only. So you can have a one month dip in manufacturing due to all kinds of factors - weather, supply shortages, order cancellations, etc - but if you're a manufacturer and foresee stronger economic times in general going forward, you may be hiring workers to ensure you can ramp up your operation when needed. So it is possible to have both.

I love reading cut and paste without any thought.


Thank You Mookie.

[AVGWarhawk]

you may be hiring workers to ensure you can ramp up your operation when needed.

Companies do not ramp up workers to cover 'possible' needs. You work the employees overtime when required. If manufacturing is down there is not hiring. I truly do not think the article is taking into account weather and locusts for down turn in manufacturing. It is purely a numbers game.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

It is purely a numbers game.

How did that phrase go.....
Oh yea..... "Lies, damn lies, and statistics".

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Companies do not ramp up workers to cover 'possible' needs. You work the employees overtime when required.

Again, that's what you do before hiring more workers, hence the value of looking at the hours worked component of the nonfarm payrolls report.

If manufacturing is down there is not hiring. I truly do not think the article is taking into account weather and locusts for down turn in manufacturing. It is purely a numbers game.

Exactly why I said you need to look at the numbers in the context of a longer series. A one month dip can be an aberration if the past 4 months have seen increases. There's a lot of "noise" in the data.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Again, that's what you do before hiring more workers, hence the value of looking at the hours worked component of the nonfarm payrolls report.

Exactly why I said you need to look at the numbers in the context of a longer series. A one month dip can be an aberration if the past 4 months have seen increases. There's a lot of "noise" in the data.

Agreed! I suspect and often have that these 'reports' are only thrown out there for the markets to see and producing a possible spike in trading etc.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Agreed! I suspect and often have that these 'reports' are only thrown out there for the markets to see and producing a possible spike in trading etc.