What if: war between Israel and Egypt

[the_tyrant]

If the current Egyptian government topples, there is a good chance that the religious hardliners (Muslim Brotherhood) who want to declare war on Israel will come to power.

What if scenario: Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in Egypt, and war is declared between Egypt and Israel (doesn't better who attacks first).
In my opinion, Israel will win that war. Just look at the stats:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/w...index.html
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/w...index.html

Egypt's army is 468,000 strong with an extra 480,000 reservists
Egyptian equipment comprises of moderately modern equipment with 1500 m60 and 1000 m1(original, not a2) tanks and assorted old soviet tanks, and moderately modern artillery and infantry weapons
Israel's army is 125,000 soldiers and 600,000 reservists
Israeli army equipment comprises of generally modern domestic made equipment , with around 1600 Merkava and around 1500 Magach tanks of all variations, and modern artillery and infantry weapons.

On paper it seems like Egypt's army has an advantage over Israel's army, but this is hard to determine, as Egypt's army preformed badly against Israel's army in the past.

In the air:
Egypt has 438 combat aircraft, comprising of mainly f16s (around 200), plus other American, French, Soviet, and Chinese aircraft.
Israel has mainly f15s and f16s, 83 f15s(all variants, including ground attack strike eagles.) and 325 f16s (all variants). Plus assorted other aircraft

I believe that the Israeli air force has the upper hand. Israeli equipment is better, and the pilots are presumably better.

Navy
the navy is not a deciding factor, but generally I would presume the Israeli navy is better, especially considering that is Israeli navy has the highly advanced dolphin (type 212 in Germany) class submarine. However, the Egyptian navy has the highly advanced American made Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate, however Israel also has a highly advanced surface fleet comprised of self made vessels too.

Circumstances:
The IDF will probably be on high alert the moment the Muslim Brotherhood takes power, so a surprise attack into Israel is highly unlikely, Israeli forces are likely to be on high alert.
Actual Egyptian military ability is doubtable. Since historically, Israel has fought on much worse circumstances and won. Especially at a change of government, since it is extremely likely that certain amount of Egyptian troops and officers will be prosecuted/dismissed for political and religious reasons.
External support will likely go to Israel, especially since the Muslim Brotherhood is a hard-line Islamic government.

In conclusion, I believe that Israel is most likely to win a war between Israel and Egypt if the Muslim Brotherhood.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

In conclusion, I believe that Israel is most likely to win a war between Israel and Egypt if the Muslim Brotherhood.

I'm pretty sure that was always a given. However the real question is: what would be the other Arab states' response be? Where would the US stand on this? Would Turkey's recent change of stance on Israel play in? What of Iran, perhaps the biggest dark horse in a conflict like that?

Sadly, I don't think there's gonna be any duels in that region. So you really have to take the other powers into account. And that does get a little scary for Israel, though fortunately, it's scary for everyone involved on the other side as well.

As far as Egypt alone, I think Israel has the capability to swiftly take Sinai again and hold on to it. Which is what the outcome of this theoretical scenario would be, imho.

[Raptor1]

What would be the operational and strategic objectives of this supposed invasion?

[UnderseaLcpl]

Originally Posted by Raptor1

What would be the operational and strategic objectives of this supposed invasion?

To get invaded by America, presumably?

[Castout]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

If the current Egyptian government topples, there is a good chance that the religious hardliners who want to declare war on Israel will come to power.

That's a BIG if.

[CCIP]

You also have to keep in mind that, as we have seen on the streets of Cairo, the military is NOT a mindless puppet or sympathises with extremist leanings. And I honestly have trouble seeing all the officers operating Egypt's sophisticated equipment to go extremist overnight - which makes the use of Egypt's military potential at the hands of the Brotherhood extremely unlikely. Even if an extremist revolution were to occur, Egypt's military would lose a lot of its capability in the process, along with a supply line to the US that is crucial to keeping much of their machinery running.

[TLAM Strike]

I disagree that Naval power is not a deciding factor.

Well Israel is essential an Island, on three sides it borders potential enemies and one side water. That water side must remain open for Israel to maintain supply (the old Sea Lanes of Communication thing again). Isreal has not fought a long protracted war, and would most likely not be able to without outside supply that supply must come by sea or be flown in over said sea.

The ISC is ill prepared to do much beyond coastal defense. It has only three large size corvettes and 8 older non stealthy missile boats. Its three submarines are generally used in the nuclear strike role (rumored anyways) and would be dangerous to risk them in direct combat (especially against superior Egyptian ASW forces). The ISC can't hope to break a distant blockade (a blockade far off shore) its few surface ships would be in danger of air attack and lack green/blue water ASW systems. The IAF has only three (outdated) Patrol Planes that are not designed for ASW focused operations. Also the ISC has no mine sweepers, one Romeo with a load of mines could shut down Israeli ports for quite a while.


The EN on the other hand has six frigates designed for blue water ASW operations and 7 frigates with basic ASW systems and 12 coastal ASW craft plus 16 ASW helicopters and 9 Naval Patrol choppers. They also have four old Romeo class subs that are equipped with decent torpedoes/missiles and received a sonar upgrade not to long ago. The ASW capablity of these is quite low but as an Anti-shipping platform they could be very dangerous if operated beyond the range of IAF/ISC ASW efforts (Say in the Strait of Sicily or the Malta Channel).

[CCIP]

Although on point of naval power, again, I'm curious how far the USN and other likely parties involved in supplying Israel would allow this to go. I think that may be partially the thinking behind Israel's current capabilities.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Although on point of naval power, again, I'm curious how far the USN and other likely parties involved in supplying Israel would allow this to go. I think that may be partially the thinking behind Israel's current capabilities.

I'm worried it might turn in to a reverse Cuban Missile Crisis with us as the Soviets and the Egyptians blockading.

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

I disagree that Naval power is not a deciding factor.

Well Israel is essential an Island, on three sides it borders potential enemies and one side water. That water side must remain open for Israel to maintain supply (the old Sea Lanes of Communication thing again). Isreal has not fought a long protracted war, and would most likely not be able to without outside supply that supply must come by sea or be flown in over said sea.

The ISC is ill prepared to do much beyond coastal defense. It has only three large size corvettes and 8 older non stealthy missile boats. Its three submarines are generally used in the nuclear strike role (rumored anyways) and would be dangerous to risk them in direct combat (especially against superior Egyptian ASW forces). The ISC can't hope to break a distant blockade (a blockade far off shore) its few surface ships would be in danger of air attack and lack green/blue water ASW systems. The IAF has only three (outdated) Patrol Planes that are not designed for ASW focused operations. Also the ISC has no mine sweepers, one Romeo with a load of mines could shut down Israeli ports for quite a while.


The EN on the other hand has six frigates designed for blue water ASW operations and 7 frigates with basic ASW systems and 12 coastal ASW craft plus 16 ASW helicopters and 9 Naval Patrol choppers. They also have four old Romeo class subs that are equipped with decent torpedoes/missiles and received a sonar upgrade not to long ago. The ASW capablity of these is quite low but as an Anti-shipping platform they could be very dangerous if operated beyond the range of IAF/ISC ASW efforts (Say in the Strait of Sicily or the Malta Channel).

depends on who attacks first
Israel could do a "pearl harbor" type attack
and destroy the Egyptian naval capabilities
Also just like CCIP said, the Egyptian army is not a mindless puppet
big chance that a "great purge" like thing will happen (so the hardliners have total control), shattering Egyptian military morale and capabilities
Therefore, i believe that the army will shatter first before the blockade can seriously damage Israel. Also, just look at the length of the previous wars. Israel won is 6 days! I don't think a navel blockade can do much damage in 6 days.

[yubba]

If they are hungry now, I wonder how hungry they are going to get when we cut off all aid , if they decide to be warlike. I don't care how much money you got, when the cupboards are bare they are bare , by the way how many calories are in a hundred dollar bill ? Simple fact oil gets cut off food gets cut off, must be a bitch living in desert.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

depends on who attacks first
Israel could do a "pearl harbor" type attack
and destroy the Egyptian naval capabilities
Also just like CCIP said, the Egyptian army is not a mindless puppet
big chance that a "great purge" like thing will happen (so the hardliners have total control), shattering Egyptian military morale and capabilities
Therefore, i believe that the army will shatter first before the blockade can seriously damage Israel. Also, just look at the length of the previous wars. Israel won is 6 days! I don't think a navel blockade can do much damage in 6 days.

Exactly my point on the War Length. Israel is use to winning a war quickly but not to occupying major enemy population centers. Their doctrine is to destroy the enemy army in the field, not to conquer real estate unless necessary. I wonder how long the IDF could hold Cairo if Israel itself was cut off from the SLOC. If Egypt does not play the direct offense game and instead digs in and blockades the eastern Med it could get very ugly, in other words Egypt plays the attrition game.

[krashkart]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

Also, just look at the length of the previous wars. Israel won is 6 days! I don't think a navel blockade can do much damage in 6 days.

I wouldn't want to overestimate my capabilities based on past victories. But this comes from an American point of view where we helped win a major war, yet lost numerous smaller wars afterward even though we possessed technological superiority over our opponents.

Given that, I don't know if Israel has the same level of public outcry that we do during prolonged conflict. Most of our wars since WWII were pointless proxy battles against a rival superpower, and public outcry has played pivotal roles in defeating our own objectives. Israel's survival in a war depends much more on their effectiveness on the battlefield. They could very well pull off another earth-shattering victory, but I still wouldn't put it past Murphy's Law to throw a wrench in the works.


Edit: And what TLAM said. That's a point I hadn't thought about.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Exactly my point on the War Length. Israel is use to winning a war quickly but not to occupying major enemy population centers. Their doctrine is to destroy the enemy army in the field, not to conquer real estate unless necessary. I wonder how long the IDF could hold Cairo if Israel itself was cut off from the SLOC. If Egypt does not play the direct offense game and instead digs in and blockades the eastern Med it could get very ugly, in other words Egypt plays the attrition game.

Honestly, I can't imagine Israel even crossing the Suez for more than just establishing strategic bridgeheads and carrying out raids. Israel even thinking of occupying Cairo or other large Egyptian cities besides perhaps Suez would be practically suicidal, and I'm sure they know it.

However I don't think that would be an objective for them. I think they would be able to grab Sinai and hold it, while neutralizing Egypt's offensive capability from a distance.

By the way, I totally agree with your analysis of Israel is an island state. It definitely is, from a naval perspective, and it's surprising that their navy has always been strictly continental.

[yubba]

One big muslim army bearing down on you, great big desert, couple of tactical nukes.