The Korean fogs of war

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

Originally Posted by Castout

Blaming NK is the most sensible and logical thing to do in the event of Cheonan being sunk by external explosion.....with or without proof....considering the prevalent geopolitical situation and the existence of motive(as revenge to previous naval clash)...until proven otherwise or in the presence of another probable and feasible and sensible and justifiable reason that it was another party which caused it presented by either the North Koreans or otherwise!

Leaving the details of the evidence (which can be faked) aside and going by motive, North Korea arguably has the least reason to do the sinking. There might be the pride factor from the naval clash but if one counts objective gains and losses, clearly they have little to gain and much to lose.

If you say America, at least you can say that the incident helps add reason to them maintaining bases in Korea and Japan. I've even heard of arguments saying that getting NK to be even more isolated would be good from a Chinese perspective. Heck, even the Japanese can say that making NK look more like a threat would be a nice excuse to bolster the SDF, which some of their factions want to do.

Besides, for the sake of argument, what exactly were the South Koreans going to do if their investigation suggests that it was the Chinese or worse, the United States that did the sinking?