Iran is in an extremely strong position, and I tend to think of them as one of the most dominant and influential powers on the globe. We may not like it, but currently I see no way to seriously hurt them without using nukes. they are close to invulnerable as long as China and India do not let them down - and why should they...??? As a matter of fact - we depend on them - while they do not need the West that much. For what should they need the West? Every oil they do not sell to the West, will happily bought by India and China.
If you want to bully someone, make sure you have solid stand. In this, we have not.
That's why I say time and again: without making it our absolute top priority to become independent from Muslim oil, all our actions about Iran, Islam, hezbollah - only is hot air. We can't afford it another fifty years to depend on them selling us oil (or not). We can't depend anymore to live at the receiving end of these incredible vulnerable lifelines of tankers and pipelines and trading lines that are so very open to attack and shutting-down by anyone who likes to do that.
And the Iranians know that! As an Israeli security expert recently pointed out in a German interview, Arabs are proud of their traditions and thus tend to act stereotypic and repeat the same old mistakes time and again, but the Persians are no Arabs, and are smart thinkers and clever minds - which makes them an extremely dangerous enemy.
Also mind you that it falls into this scheme that the most dominant crisis in the ME is not around Israel, but the confrontation between Shia and Sunni Islam. Sunni Arabs fear Shia Iran very much. the conflict is one
millennium old, and never was cold. Sunnis have understood that Israel is no threat to their regimes. But Iran-supported Shia Islam is a very extreme danger to them. Have you noticed how relatively silent the Sunni states were about Israel trying to crack Iran-backed Shia Hezbollah?
The inner conflict of an enemy is our benefit. i wonder why we do not start to think about how we could widen and exploit the gap within Islam, economically, culturally, financially, politically, by every means available. Oh wait, that is not considered to be polite, I suppose. Oh dear... Once Shias will believe somebody - no matter who it is - who is telling them he is their hidden Iman who returned to them, their in a way "defensive" understanding of jihad will switch to unlimted attack mode (that'S why they are waiting so desperately). Then we will see Islam in uncontrolled charge. we can't afford to let such a person rise to that accepted status of being their long-awaited Imam. Ahmadinejad is referring to that tradition - that's why he gains so many sympathies.
10-21-06, 11:58 AM
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