Dwindling technolgical superiority erodes US security guarantees

[Skybird]

https://translate.google.de/translat...det-ld.1474351

How a combination of growing economic power and innovative capability will affect the military balance in the medium term can already be seen from the Taiwan scenario. In 1996, the leadership in Peking had to let the US Navy demonstrate how little it could counter US intervention in favor of the "renegade" island republic. The threatening gestures of the American aircraft carrier battle groups around the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese armed forces had nothing to oppose. Since then, mainland China has increased its defense budget by about 750 percent, and its armed forces have adjusted to a conflict with the US. For its part, the People's Liberation Army opted for a "compensation strategy", in which not only an air defense system of partly Russian provenance but above all precision-directed, conventionally equipped short- and medium-range missiles play a central role.

Although based on initially modest industrial capacity, these measures dramatically worsened the situation for the US Armed Forces. A Rand Corporation study in 2017 concluded that since 1996, the necessary strength for a successful air offensive to support Taiwan has increased at least tenfold. The all-important conquest of the air sovereignty is thus hardly to accomplish in a operationally relevant period and with bearable own losses. Nor is it surprising that the self-esteem with which Washington had traditionally provided military support has disappeared.

As far as Taiwan is concerned I think their independence has lasted for the longest time. China's determination on this issue is merciless, and the Chinese military upbuild almost completely is motivated by and is designed for securing a successful war against Taiwan and the US, to take Taiwan back. And already right now I do not see the US Navy beign able to enforce victory in case of a hot war with China and in Far-Eastern waters. China catches up, and gets ready to overtake at least in the territories it considers to be most vital to its home interests. Their civilian-military economic command structure allows them to focus on the effort of a war much more decisevely, than in case of the American - or heaven help: European - economy structures.

Maybe one could even already go as far and say: the battle over Taiwan essentially already is over, and already has ended with a Chinese victory. The US will not go to a war with China over Taiwan. And Taiwan left to itselof would be against all odds if they militarily resist. They thus will capitulate, or seek peaceful surrender by political means before a war turns hot. Like in case of Hongkong, China can afford to trade time for gaining more and more control. Until no independence and regional autonomy is left.