Simpsons 'trump' First Amendment

[Type XXIII]

Originally Posted by August

Yeah i understand the theory, but it'd be hard to prove (to me at least) that such a small number could be representative of the total population. They claim an error rate of +/- 3% but it could easily be far greater, especially since the poll was run only once.

Also directed to the other people in this thread:

If those subjects are, as stated in the article, chosen completely at random from the total population, they are a representative sample, again because of the law of high numbers.

Of course, there can be questions raised as to the credibility of the people making the survey. Be sceptical of statistics, they can easily be made deceptive.

But don't call 1000 people a small selection. I did the math on that certain statistic, and from the numbers in the article it can be concluded that, with 99% probability, between 19% and 25% of the population for which this sample is representative (from what the article indicates, american adults that own and answered the phone), knows the names of the five simpsons.

For those math interested, the formula for the margin of error is equal to z*SQRT(p(1-p)/n).

z is a variable that depends on the desired confidence, for 99%, it is approx. 2.58. If you want the definition, go study some statistics.
p is the estimate for (population with ability)/(total population).
n is the number of subjects.