EU deal announced

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by papa_smurf

Greek president George Papandreou has thrown in a proverbial "spanner in the works" to the deal, by announcing a referendum on whether Greece should take the deal or not.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15533940

Many are now expecting a No vote, and Greece could default/leave the euro. Good news in the short term you say, but was watching the BBC news just and this could lead to banks/investors holding debts for other EU nations in trouble withholding more support and could make things FAR worse.

It is a turbulent day for European stockmarkets, yes. And if Greece defaults, it is a precedence, and other countries in the EU-zone that are weak will also ask, like Greece, whether they should leave the Euro. What we talk about effectively means the end of the Euro-zone as we know it. And yes, it will be an end with terror.

The alternative is terror without end.

Things are too bad, much too bad now as if any sane mind could seriously believe anymore that we could get out of it without suffering.

Interest rates for Spanish and Italian bonds again rocketed upwards today, and what I expect next, no matterf what it will be with greece, is a massive rush of private capital and investment away from the Southern olive-belt of Europe, giving them even less support and even higher interest rates. These countries are in what a vertex is for a helicopter: no way out if you do not have sufficient altitude for a gentle easing, and the more power you apply to the rotor, the more force you create to indeed suck you towards the ground. Just that these countries have so many prioblems and debts that that they already hover below sea-level, so to speak.

Calculations have shown that the "deal" reached some days ago, doe not even fulfill half of the expecations the superficial numbers seemed to have promised and that in some years Greece will be off even muchz worse than it already is now, even if it all would be followed right down to the dot above the i. I assume that this is dawning upon Papandreou and that he is not willing to play the lamb to slaughter afterwards when the whole card-house finally has collapsed.

Question is what the still stronger countries - with the emphasis on "still" - will do: will they still commit themselves to a hopeless suicide mission and allow to get pulled down along with the rest in order to continue their certifiable self-blinding idealism - and mental derangement, if you are less euphemistic - over the Euro and the EU for some pleasant days more before the kettle explodes, or will they finally realise that now they have to save themselves, though under very high losses as well? In other words: will the choice be to lose everything for nothing, or will it be to avccept hurting losses to save at least some?

Germany has plenty to lose with a collapsing Euro, since it's export-heavy industry is very weak when considering how much depending on exports it is indeed. But I think our loss will be even higher if we allow to turn the EU into an unlimited transfer union with bailout after bailout. That would not cost only constant high ammounts of money and increase our own debts to levels that sooner or later surpass those levels we see in the Mediterranean regions, but it would not solve the structural problem, but only delay they final payday - and not for an unlimited ammount of time, but probbaly only a short ammount of time.

Since half a century, roughly, there have been warnings by some that an economy based on debt-making cannot go forever, but must necessarily collapse one day, since it is a snowball system at the cost of the generation that is the last generation of players before the collapse. It seems to me that the talking about this will not go on for another unknown ammount of time, but that the time has run out and we are about to be presented the final accumulated bill. Payday is here, and it means a questioning of the complete economic model that has been established over the time at least since WWII. And we have the unwanted pleasure to enjoy the show from the central seat in the first row, since we are right in the middle of it. Not today, maybe, and probbaly not tomorrow. But you better stop counting in decades, even "unknown number of years".

And for many hundreds of thousands if not millions in several countries from the US to Eastern Europe, this already has beocme a reality as to be seen in their deep social fall that many have experienced since 2008. Many of them will fall even deeper, and their kids along with them, and many more will join their fall.

That is the collective price our civilisation now must pay for what it did over the past 70 years or so. And no, I do not exclude myself from that, since I know my position in life is far from being economically strong anymore.