Bright Future Between Beijing and Taiwai is on the way!

[peterloo]

After Siew was elected as the next Taiwan vice president, he met Hu in Boao Forum for Asia. How will this affect the future Taiwan and Beijing relationship? And how will USA and other nations respond to this? And does this imply that, the Beijing is willing to solve problem by communication, and therefore paves a way to solve the current Tibet trouble through discussions and consenus reaching?


source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7345260.stm

A high level meeting between China's President, Hu Jintao, and the man who will become Taiwan's next Vice-President, Vincent Siew, was historic - the highest level meeting between officials the two sides since 1949.

It was also, many analysts believe, likely to set the two sides on a path for better relations in the future.
Pictures of the men shaking hands and sitting down together in China's Hainan island, on the sidelines of the Boao Forum for Asia, were splashed on the front pages of Taiwan's newspapers.
Among the Chinese-language papers, the United Daily News said the meeting had created a "great opportunity because of their [the two men's] pragmatism and low-key approach".
The Apple Daily called the meeting "ice-breaking", saying it had created a "win-win opportunity".


But in its commentary, the Liberty Times - which generally supports the governing Democratic Progressive Party - was critical.
"Hu Jintao prepared a trap and [Taiwan President-elect] Ma [Ying-jeou] and Siew have been caught," reads its headline.
The paper quotes a traditional Taiwanese saying, suggesting Mr Siew's visit to China was "like asking for a medical prescription from a ghost" - suggesting he was seeking help from someone who would cause harm.
"Even if this is morphine or another kind of drug which will kill pain in the short term, it will kill Taiwan in the long-term," it said.


Ice-breaking

Most analysts, though, believe the meeting has brought positive results.
"I think it was a tremendously symbolic meeting - and also one that's ice-breaking," said Chao Chien-Min, who teaches Chinese politics and cross-strait relations at National Chengchi University.
"Some issues were ironed out and it's highly likely that we will see weekend charter flights between the two sides by 4 July. We could even see Chinese tourists coming here before the end of the year."

Those were pledges that Mr Siew and Mr Ma had made as part of their campaign to revive Taiwan's stagnant economy - which helped them win last month's presidential elections by a wide margin.
But for the plan to be realised, China's co-operation is essential. And that looks increasingly likely following Saturday's meeting.
In comments carried by China's state-run Xinhua news agency, President Hu said the two sides were facing an "historical opportunity", which needed joint efforts from both sides for further progress.
He said that the economic forum had "inspired us to think deeply about cross-straits economic exchanges and co-operation under the new circumstances".
He also backed two of Mr Siew's proposals: opening up Taiwan to more Chinese tourists and allowing weekend charter flights "as soon as possible".
There has been no direct air travel between the two sides since they split amid civil war in 1949. Mr Siew and his delegation had to travel to China via Hong Kong.


Mutual respect?

Mr Siew's decision to travel to the forum was a bold step, carrying significant risks as well as opportunities.
Some members of the governing Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, had opposed the visit, saying it could undermine Taiwan's dignity and status in any future dealings with Chinese officials.
"Interaction between two hostile countries with very different ideas is good," said senior DPP legislator, Trong Chai, "but we must understand the position and ideas of the other side. The other side should respect the fact that Taiwan is an independent, sovereign country. Mr Siew didn't receive that kind of treatment."

But others disagreed. Mr Siew was attending the forum in a private capacity - as head of a private, non-government organisation promoting trade with China.
Those studying the nuances of his treatment were quick to note that he was seated in the front row, reserved for VIPs, and invited to join the centre table at a state banquet.
Both sides seemed determined to avoid sensitive political issues, focusing on economics. Despite their political differences, economic ties between the two sides have grown over the past two decades. China is now Taiwan's top trading partner and investment destination.
"The atmosphere was good; the discussion was candid and they [China] didn't do anything to belittle us. It seems both sides were sincere," said veteran China analyst, George Tsai, professor at Taipei's Chinese Culture University.
"It's melting the ice a few more inches - moving things in the right direction, and that's very helpful.


Golden opportunity

Some analysts have suggested China was willing to work for a good outcome, because it was keen to get good publicity and deflect attention away from its troubles in Tibet.
Certainly, there has been a positive response to the meeting, with Washington praising the start of dialogue.
Former US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, an attendee at the forum, met Mr Siew and said he believed the talks were "good news for the region". Mr Powell told reporters that "the two sides have begun down a new path".
But Beijing also realises that last month's elections in Taiwan presented a golden opportunity.
When the people of Taiwan cast their ballots, they voted for change, including a less fractious relationship with Beijing than under the previous president, Chen Shui-bian, whose pro-independence rhetoric and policies had provoked and infuriated officials in China.
No-one is pretending that the task will be easy.
But the Hu-Siew meeting is an indication that if both sides are prepared to be more pragmatic, steps can be taken to build up mutual trust and increase interaction.
Only then, and in the longer term, can the tougher, political issues start to be addressed.

(edited because I wanted to relate this news to Tibet crisis and also correct some problems with the quote tag)

[Yahoshua]

This is already raising hackles and suspicion among a couple of friends I know.

With the Chinese military gearing up their amphibious warfare capabilities as fast as they can and the recent acquirement of the AEGIS radar by Taiwan, and taking into consideration that the Chinese government still regards Taiwan as Chinese territory it doesn't seem right that both sides are suddenly willing to kiss and make up.

My guess is that both Taiwan and China are buying time and the Chinese government is trying to divert attention from Tibet to get some good coverage on the news.

Conversely, this may be a genuine attempt to settle relations but just happened to have bad timing. The Taiwanese may use this to their advantage and declare independence during the olympics knowing that the Chinese government wouldn't dare risk a world-wide embargoe or worse- military retaliation as a reaction to the behavior of one or both parties on the issue.

The Taiwanese conservatives want independence and the Chinese governemnt doesn't want to let go while saving face.

I'll keep an eye on this and wait a little longer before adding more speculation to the mix.

[Skybird]

Not before the shooting started I will believe there will be a hot Taiwan war started by China. Its all bluffing on very high niveau. That sooner or later they will peacefully come together is the most probable scenario for me. The economic ties are already very close. The US would be well advised to act with much self-restriction, not to trigger a war by itself.

[Trex]

Yahoshua - Not quite sure why this doesn't seem 'right'. Do you mean that it is puzzling? With that, I can have some agreement, but realistic moves towards peace are always right (provided they are not the head-in-the-sand of the Chamberlain sort).

Similarly, I am not sure why the timing is 'bad'.

To be sure, the option of a full-out hot war between the two is always present, but China has much to lose by such. They want Taiwan back as a prosperous province, not radioactive glaze. Taiwan wants to maintain its freedom, but also needs to fit back into the world. There is a fair bit of wiggle room for that in existing conditions, potential agreements that would allow the PRC to claim the lost had returned while still maintaining enough autonomy for Taiwan to claim it won, too.

In any case, as Winston Churchill, no mean warrior himself, wrote one time, "Jaw jaw is better than war war."

[August]

Taiwan is not a province of China. The Han Chinese that immigrated there after the fall of Chang Kai Cheks regime are interlopers.

In historical terms, the mainland's one unquestioned period of control over Taiwan lasted between the end of the Second World War and the ouster of Chiang Kai-shek from the mainland. The islanders were never consulted, and Chiang's Kuo Min Tang (KMT) made sure that their views went unheard by massacring some 30,000 of them beginning February 28, 1947. Even when driven from the mainland in 1949, Chiang's regime maintained its increasingly tenuous claim to be the legitimate government of China, which included Mongolia as well.

Only after Chiang's death did the island move toward democracy and into the real world, by dissolving the all-China shadow government structures maintained by the KMT. Strangely, the comrades in Beijing were happier with an island claiming to represent the whole of China than they are with one that currently purports only to represent itself.

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3815

[Yahoshua]

Originally Posted by Trex

Yahoshua - Not quite sure why this doesn't seem 'right'. Do you mean that it is puzzling? With that, I can have some agreement, but realistic moves towards peace are always right (provided they are not the head-in-the-sand of the Chamberlain sort).

Similarly, I am not sure why the timing is 'bad'.

Keeping the context strictly between Taiwan and China:

It is puzzling that China would consider negotiating with an island that the Chinese government considers "theirs". Rather than staking the traditional position that Taiwan should be a good little island and not fidget too much about formal independence.

If, however (and I mean a long-shot-over-the-moon-IF), this is a genuine attempt by both sides to kiss and make up, it has the unfortunate timing with the Chinese government facing ALOT of pressure from multiple nations over the handling of Tibet. So it comes off as seeming that the Chinese are desperate for some good news and that playing "kiss and make up" with Taiwan during the olympics is a way to get good publicity. Not to mention that the new parliament in Taiwan is a conservative parliament and leans more strongly toward pro-independence standpoints than the former liberal government.

Behind the scenes of all this is the fact that both sides are still gearing up for a hot war, each trying to stay ahead of the other in an effort to maintain a stalemate or to achieve enough dominance to make a move.

So why now of all times?

[Trex]

I'm easily confused, sorry. I thought you were expressing disapproval as opposed to puzzlement.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Not before the shooting started I will believe there will be a hot Taiwan war started by China. Its all bluffing on very high niveau. That sooner or later they will peacefully come together is the most probable scenario for me. The economic ties are already very close. The US would be well advised to act with much self-restriction, not to trigger a war by itself.

I really hope your right

[Sea Demon]

I'm not sure what to make of it. But like Yahoshua said, and I agree, I think Beijing may be coddling up a little bit to Taiwan to be able to say, "hey, look, we ain't so bad". Never mind the 800-1,000 SRBM's pointed at Taiwan. Despite Beijing's attempts to woo some people with these talks, I remain unconvinced of their sincerity.

[Trex]

They have sincerity?

[August]

Originally Posted by Trex

They have sincerity?

They are sincere in their self interest.

[Trex]

Originally Posted by August

They are sincere in their self interest.

Now that is the most intelligent thing I've read all day.

[peterloo]

Originally Posted by Yahoshua

Not to mention that the new parliament in Taiwan is a conservative parliament and leans more strongly toward pro-independence standpoints than the former liberal government.

Are you sure? I guess you got some wrong datas. During 2000 and 2008, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) led by Chen Shui Bian is the guy who avocated independence, claiming that Taiwen is a sovereign nation and even censored the word "Chinese" and "China" in some of the firms, changing them to "Taiwan"

Originally Posted by wikipedia

Chen announced on December 5 that state-owned enterprises and foreign offices bearing the name "China", such as China Airlines, the China Steel Corporation (中國鋼鐵股份有限公司), and Chinese Petroleum Corporation (中國石油股份有限公司), would be renamed to bear the name "Taiwan". On December 14, 2004, following the failure of the Pan-Green coalition to gain a majority of seats in the ROC legislative election, 2004 (as many had expected to occur), Chen resigned as chairman of the DPP. This dashed hopes that the stalemate that plagued Chen's first term would end.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Sh...erm_presidency

(deleted since my comment on Wikipedia ITSELF is not very appropriate here)

The new president, Ma Ying Jeou, has a more conservative approach. He says that the status quo should be maintained.

Originally Posted by wikipedia

Ma has defined the status quo as the "Five No's." During a visit to the United States in March 2006, he proposed a "proactive" approach to cross-strait relations which he called the "Five Do's."

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma_ying...ical_positions

If you get the data wrong, I'm afraid that your post and stance becomes void

Edited since I want to respond to this as well

They are sincere in their self interest.

Yes, they are sincere in their self interest. Totally agree. China wants to deflect the focal point away from Tibet but to Boao Forum. Taiwai wants to gain economic benefits since she has been purged by it when Chen Shui Bian came to power. Taiwai hopes that air traffic between mainland and China can be opened up, welcoming mainland China tourists to Taiwai and of course, stimulate their otherwise weakened economy.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by peterloo

I believe Wikipedia is much better than some medias since Wikipedia is unbiased while viewpoint of some medias can be biased.

Oh, careful now. Every amateur and every fool can get published at wikipedia. This can result in heavily distored, or simply wrong entries. And regarding politics and comparable things, this often happens. This is why professional encyclopedias I rate better, because it is pros with a reputation writing about a theme that they really know. Wether a wikipedia author really knows his stuff or not, sometimes is an issue of belief only. Not to mention the wars they have due to a minority not liking what somebody wrote and demand it to be deleted. Especially religious views can easily lead to heavily distorted entries, by demanding that facts should bend to beliefs, or should be censored altogether.

Wikipedia is no professional encyclopedia like the German Brockhaus or the English Encyclopedia Britannica!

[peterloo]

Oh thanks for reminding me

But I think the news is still pretty an accurate statement concerning Ma Ying Jeou and Chen Shui Bian. That's why I quote it.

I'll delete the statement about the accuracy of Wikipedia. However, I won't modify the description regarding Ma and Chen since they are correct.