OT Debate: If you were karl Donitz ....

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Sailor Steve

If Doenitz had had as many u-boats as he wanted it could have made a difference.

Hitler's war machine had a head start on land and he was not going to hang around while he had the advantage.

Hitler had lost the war by declaring war on Russia then America.

[Dowly]

The way I see the Battle of the Atlantic, it was lost before it even started. Kriegsmarine simply didnt have enough uboats to blockade Britain. I even dare to bet that even if all the uboats would have been XXI's in the start of the war, Britain would have still survived.

So, as a Doenitz, I would have b*tch slapped Hitler and told him to get real and wait a few years before starting the war.

[sandbag69]

Originally Posted by AndyW

Er, sorry, but I always thought that "Sealion" was seriously considered and not a bluff from the very beginning. Adolf issued a Führer directive (No.16), the Army, Luftwaffe and Navy were actually seriously preparing (and not just pretending to do so) for the various possible X-days and all were busy until the Kriegsmarine came up with a "reality check" from thier side (July 28, 1940) raining on the invasion parade by telling then that shipping the troops over the Channel would take a ridiculous long time and they can't support and secure a broad enough LZ. Then the Luftwaffe failed to gain air superiority ("Adlertag" August 13, 1940 ff.) and at least from that day on "sealion" was blown off and just kept as a bluff.

Cheers,

So you think Hitler was mad enough to attempt a Seaborne invasion against the nation with the largest navy and merchant marine in the world.

If he they had landed troops by sheer luck the Royal Navy would have mounted a large scale attack , broken through the u-boat line protecting Sealion and slaughtered the transport ships and Rhine barges.

Hitler bluffed. Best way to bluff is to imagine it is real and tell your men its real.

[TarJak]

Originally Posted by Dowly

The way I see the Battle of the Atlantic, it was lost before it even started. Kriegsmarine simply didnt have enough uboats to blockade Britain. I even dare to bet that even if all the uboats would have been XXI's in the start of the war, Britain would have still survived.

So, as a Doenitz, I would have b*tch slapped Hitler and told him to get real and wait a few years before starting the war.

Spot on Dowly. The U-waffe was not in a fit state to set up worlf packs in 1939 nor was it able to do so until well into '42 and even then there were still not enough to handle all the operations they had to cover. It all came down to how many operational boats were available and for Germany to have won, they would have had to have the 300 boats in 1939 which was never going to happen unless they started their full scale building programme much ealier than they could.

Hitler couldn't wait long enough to get all his ducks in a row because of Germany's debts and the threat posed by Russian military build ups.

[AndyW]

Originally Posted by sandbag69

So you think Hitler was mad enough to attempt a Seaborne invasion against the nation with the largest navy and merchant marine in the world.

Well, I did not saw any historical evidence so far suggesting that "Operation Sealion" was a bluff from the very beginning, so yes. It's important to distinguish between the dead serious planning and preparation before August 1940 and - after realizing the "showstoppers" in late July / early August 1940 - the later deception that "Sealion" may happen when in fact it became clear to the Germans that it's not feasible.

If he they had landed troops by sheer luck the Royal Navy would have mounted a large scale attack , broken through the u-boat line protecting Sealion and slaughtered the transport ships and Rhine barges.

The landing zone requested by the German Army was between Beachy Head in the West and Ramsgate in the East with additional landings at Wight / Portsmouth. The Kriegsmarine could only support a smaller landing strip and had objections against loading the landing crafts outside French harbours. The corridor was about to protected heavily by mines, coastal artillery, Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine. Portsmouth, Plymouth and other RN harbours were planned to be bombed heavily and the few German U-Boats were drawn to screen the British ports and the corridor.

Hitler bluffed. Best way to bluff is to imagine it is real and tell your men its real.

I'm interested to see anything supporting this theory.

Whenever Hitler "bluffed" he told at least his High Command so. Hitler often ordered the High Command (OKW, OKH) to prepare operational plans for various possibilities, and he always informed them if he changed his mind and the operation is not going to happen or is postponed.

If you read the Halder's private war diary or the official OKW war diary, you can clearly see that the preperations for "Sealion" were serious and exceeding everything one is willing to invest into a bluff. Only after they realized in early August 1940 that it's not feasible to conduct a amphibious landing with a reasonable chance of success, they turned "Sealion" into a deceptive "bluff", i.e. they continiued to give the impression that they are preparing for it, but with a substantially lesser enthuisasm compared to the serious full scale planning and preparation earlier.

Cheeers,

[STEED]

It has been proved that Hitler had no real interest to carry out Sealion as Hitler always wanted living space for his people in the east. The German build up was a real joke but it served it's purpose as a bluff before our very eyes.

[deamyont]

Originally Posted by STEED

It has been proved that Hitler had no real interest to carry out Sealion as Hitler always wanted living space for his people in the east. The German build up was a real joke but it served it's purpose as a bluff before our very eyes.

Source? No? Didn't think so either.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by deamyont

Source? No? Didn't think so either.

Why don't you check the Sealion build up for yourself? You don't need to be an expert to see it was a joke.

Source Military Experts.

[AVGWarhawk]

Play nice men. Glad we could discuss this like gentlemen.

[sandbag69]

Originally Posted by deamyont

Source? No? Didn't think so either.

Hitler pointed out that the naval preparations for "Operation Sealion" was now almost complete. "All our barges are now in place, and we have more held in reserve along river banks," :hmm:

Barges....lol barges to cross the English Channel. Most of the barges didnt even have engines. They would need to have been towed across.

[AVGWarhawk]

Not to mention England had photo recon of the barges and I believe they started bombing the heck out barges.

[CaptainAsh]

think is, after dunkirk I m not sure england at anything efficient to stop german ONCE they were able to land on beach.
About the crossing? Well that was all the purpose of the battle of england in summer 40... If the luftwaffe had established his supremacy in air, not a single english warship would have been able to enter the channel. Just think about the bay of biskay under allied air superiority and try to imagine the same superiority in the channel crossing point were not place is more far away than 100 km of a luftwaffe base. Battle of england was the key for a successful landing.
The other thing to consider is the people. English are not french. And I know it well because I m french ^^. English, as a nation, would never had surrender. So what s the point for germany to invade england? Just occupy a possible base for landing in europe by american?
I do think the war in the west was a total stupidity by Hittler as he was obviously going to be face to face with US some time without any chance to win.

In my oppinion, Hittler should have stop right after the french campagn and be great prince by giving back to france what he did conquer with for only condition that western allied (at that time only france and english) would not bother anymore about his conquest in east. Then he would have been free to make the war into the east at his full potential. I do believe he would have lost anyway, for the same reason US lost war in vietnam. (I will just remember to you some words of Ho Chi Min : we will kill one of your soldier for each ten of our soldier and still, it s you who re going to be tired in the end).

[Sailor Steve]

Originally Posted by STEED

Hitler's war machine had a head start on land and he was not going to hang around while he had the advantage.

Hitler had lost the war by declaring war on Russia then America.

I wasn't speaking to objectives or plans, just numbers.

Originally Posted by sandbag69

Hitler pointed out that the naval preparations for "Operation Sealion" was now almost complete. "All our barges are now in place, and we have more held in reserve along river banks," :hmm:

Barges....lol barges to cross the English Channel. Most of the barges didnt even have engines. They would need to have been towed across.

When the Armada was trying to subdue England in 1588, the plan was to have the Duke of Parma's army cross from Flanders to the Island in barges. Probably wouldn't have worked then, either.

[Sailor Steve]

Anyway, here are the numbers I promised, courtesy of Hughes and Costello's The Battle Of The Atlantic:

At the beginning of the war the British merchant fleet consisted of about 6,000 ships over 500 tons.

to date: ships lost / tonnage lost / new tonnage built
12/39: 105 / 810,000 / 330,000
3/40: 80 / 750,000 / 350,000
6/40: can't find
9/40: 150 / 1,400,000 / 250,000
12/40: 130 / 1,250,000 / 250,000
3/41: 100 / 1,300,000 / 400,000
6/41: 150 / 1,600,000 / 500,000
9/41: 90 / 750,000 / 600,000
12/41: 70 / 800,000 / 600,000
3/42: 225 / 2,100,000 / 800,000
6/42: 240 / 1,350,000 / 850,000
9/42: 290 / 2,750,000 / 3,000,000
12/42: 260 / 2,000,000 / 2,500,000
3/43: 200 / 1,500,000 / 2,750,000
6/43: 120 / 900,000 / 3,800,000

I stopped here because after this date it just keeps getting worse for the Germans. Unfortunately the lists don't include the number of new ship built. If the Germans could have put twice as many u-boats into the Atlantic, Churchill's fears might have played out; but it would have to have been before Henry Kaiser started his production-line building program.

[Castout]

If i were Donitz i would join the Allied to win the war :rotfl:.

Okay okay let's be more serious,
German started the invasion of Ploand with mostly Pz II and Pz III tanks so saying that Hitler started the war because its army was at a BIG advantage is not completely correct. Nazi got a big adavantage in tanks after it created Panther tanks(It was the 2nd most nemurous German tanks during WWII) while Tiger was produced not to a great number. The development of Panther followed the lessons from the shocking Russian T-34 with its then revolutionary sloped armor and big calibre gun.

However when Hitler started the war with the invasion of Ploand the Kriegsmarine simply didn't have the resources to win the war at sea(for example its 7th flotilla was only equipped with the then brand new 4 type VIIB). However during the course of war these small number of u-boats proved their woirth beyond their numbers especially during the 1940s when the British was busy evacuating Dunkirk with all vailable ships hence all convoy and merchantmen ships were not escorted. The loss of the merchantship was more than the British could ever replenish until 1942 with America entering the war. Faced with seeminglly enemy with unlimited resources the German miscalculated(again) and the British since then produced more ships than the u-boats could ever sink. And this was made worse by the deciphering of enigma machine(all 9 tankers used to replenish u-boat fuels were destroyed thx to this)

In summary: Given their numbers the u-boat gave an excellent and heroic service to the German empire during WWII and their effect was truly out of the proporion of their numbers. They were fighting a desperate war since the beginning.


In a war of attrition:
So in my opinion the German could only win the war at sea if they had control of the sky to support the u-boat campaign. Perhaps with long range interceptor and naval bombers or the use of carriers. "So Herr Goring where's your planes the British has plenty". That's my 2 cents

For 'blitzkrieg"
If only they had A-bomb...