Plan A - A Nuclear war simulation

mapuc · 09-19-19, 12:47 PM

I have seen this video a few times by now and still I can't put my fingers on where it's incorrect.

Maybe it ain't maybe it is correct all the way (4.18 min.)

Quote:

Based on the current US and Russia war plans, 91.5 million people would be either dead (34.1 million) or injured (57.4 million) within just a few hours of the start of the conflict.

https://www.iflscience.com/editors-b...rStfd_EaU6Ux4c

Markus

Rockstar · 09-19-19, 02:03 PM

Hmmm, might be a good idea to start looking for property in Peru.

Onkel Neal · 09-19-19, 02:19 PM

Yeah, poor Canada be thinking 'WTH!?"

Julhelm · 09-19-19, 02:30 PM

No more more than 95 million killed, tops. Depending on the breaks.

mapuc · 09-19-19, 02:39 PM

If the unthinkable would happen it doesn't matter where you move to.

In case you want to survive the nuclear holocaust

The fallout from all these nukes will sooner or later have spread all around the world.

Markus

Julhelm · 09-19-19, 03:42 PM

Unlikely. Modern warheads in the .3 to 1mt range simply do not loft the debris that high, so it will rain out over a few days.

Skybird · 09-19-19, 04:43 PM

^

---------

I personally think that if the cold war would have ever turned hot, there would have been no nuclear escalation ladder form conventional to nuclear exchange over several hours, but the war would have been opened with nuclear decapitation strikes against NATO CCCI systems and air bases - and then of course answered by nuclear retaliation by the US. WWIII would have been a nuclear war already from the opening, day 1, hour 1, on.

Today that might be different. Some days ago I read in some German media that the Bundeswehr today has not sufficient ammunition for even just some days, but just for some hours of a full blown war. Well, today no news about the Bundeswehr can surprise me anymore. In other words, the war would be cancelled by the Germans, even if the Russians would be pissed by that unfair move.

Julhelm · 09-19-19, 05:40 PM

Well, that was what the Soviets always planned. Advance all the way to the Atlantic coast behind a blanket of nuclear bombs.

mapuc · 09-19-19, 05:50 PM

On the fun side of this discussion

is that none of us can come back after a nuclear war and say

You were right/wrong.

so it's theory all the way

Yes Russia, USA, Great Britain has their military doctrine on how to act in case of war and nuclear war.

As someone said, can't remember who

"You can have thousands of war plans or Doctrines who may end up being useless when the war start/begin"

Markus

ET2SN · 09-19-19, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Julhelm

No more more than 95 million killed, tops. Depending on the breaks.

For those of us old enough to get the context:

https://hobbydb-production.s3.amazon...0Turgidson.jpg

Catfish · 09-20-19, 01:19 AM

It seems to be hip nowadays to look at the possibility of a limited regional winnable nuclear war with less fallout, with smaller nuclear warheads and other 'smart' weapons, so deterrence will not hold some back.
Whatever will become of those who have to live there. Some russian hawks say that radiation is not as bad, and people will adapt quickly

Looking from outside this seems like the perfect way to finally have more wars again, oh joy.

Julhelm · 09-20-19, 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

Some russian hawks say that radiation is not as bad, and people will adapt quickly

Well in their defense they probably know what they're talking about. They seem to have nuclear fallout accidents over there all the time.

Skybird · 09-20-19, 04:01 AM

I cannot imagine that between the big bad boys it will remain at a limited exchnage with tactical "small" nukes. The side that got hit by a tactical small nuke will hardly just swallow it and see it as a "limited" strike with thousands and tens of thosuands dead and many more injured, radiated, and abotu tio deerly suffer in the comign years and die.

It will always grow into a bigger exchange. And this exchnage will damage infrastructure hard to imagine. Now there is a lot fo tlak recently about the possibility of Blckouts (in Germany in special and Europe in general). The scenarios for a 24h blackout include the narration of the aftermaths lasting for days and weeks to come, and huge scores of deaths in hospitals and other depending institutions, and no drink water being processed and pumped anymore as well. No just-in-timje delivery of food and medication. If yo have prepped, you were called a nuthead or a Nazi. Now imagine power not beign restored after 24 hours, but beign gone for the forseeable future, with powergrids destroyed and powerplants gone!

The killing will not be over when the war "ends". The real misery starts when the shooting ends. And we do not even touch upon the issue of radiation. Chernobyl was a picnic against what a nuclear war would mean -and the consequences of Chernobal still can be measue dover here in the ground, in plants and vegetables. Low doses - but then, Chernobyl was no nuclear war aimed at doing maximum damage.

Personally, I do not want to survive a nculear war. If it comes, i hope I get vaporized in the first blast. The world after it is not worth it to me.

Jimbuna · 09-20-19, 05:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Personally, I do not want to survive a nculear war. If it comes, i hope I get vaporized in the first blast. The world after it is not worth it to me.

Pretty much sums it up for me as well

STEED · 09-20-19, 05:13 AM

Fat chance of nuclear war.

09-19-19, 02:19 PM	#3
Onkel Neal Born to Run Silent Join Date: Jan 1997 Location: Cougar Trap, Texas Posts: 21,383 Downloads: 541 Uploads: 224	Yeah, poor Canada be thinking 'WTH!?" __________________ SUBSIM - 26 Years on the Web

09-19-19, 04:43 PM	#7
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,613 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	^ --------- I personally think that if the cold war would have ever turned hot, there would have been no nuclear escalation ladder form conventional to nuclear exchange over several hours, but the war would have been opened with nuclear decapitation strikes against NATO CCCI systems and air bases - and then of course answered by nuclear retaliation by the US. WWIII would have been a nuclear war already from the opening, day 1, hour 1, on. Today that might be different. Some days ago I read in some German media that the Bundeswehr today has not sufficient ammunition for even just some days, but just for some hours of a full blown war. Well, today no news about the Bundeswehr can surprise me anymore. In other words, the war would be cancelled by the Germans, even if the Russians would be pissed by that unfair move. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 09-19-19 at 04:51 PM.

09-20-19, 01:19 AM	#11
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,766 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	It seems to be hip nowadays to look at the possibility of a limited regional winnable nuclear war with less fallout, with smaller nuclear warheads and other 'smart' weapons, so deterrence will not hold some back. Whatever will become of those who have to live there. Some russian hawks say that radiation is not as bad, and people will adapt quickly Looking from outside this seems like the perfect way to finally have more wars again, oh joy. __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

09-20-19, 04:01 AM	#13
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,613 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	I cannot imagine that between the big bad boys it will remain at a limited exchnage with tactical "small" nukes. The side that got hit by a tactical small nuke will hardly just swallow it and see it as a "limited" strike with thousands and tens of thosuands dead and many more injured, radiated, and abotu tio deerly suffer in the comign years and die. It will always grow into a bigger exchange. And this exchnage will damage infrastructure hard to imagine. Now there is a lot fo tlak recently about the possibility of Blckouts (in Germany in special and Europe in general). The scenarios for a 24h blackout include the narration of the aftermaths lasting for days and weeks to come, and huge scores of deaths in hospitals and other depending institutions, and no drink water being processed and pumped anymore as well. No just-in-timje delivery of food and medication. If yo have prepped, you were called a nuthead or a Nazi. Now imagine power not beign restored after 24 hours, but beign gone for the forseeable future, with powergrids destroyed and powerplants gone! The killing will not be over when the war "ends". The real misery starts when the shooting ends. And we do not even touch upon the issue of radiation. Chernobyl was a picnic against what a nuclear war would mean -and the consequences of Chernobal still can be measue dover here in the ground, in plants and vegetables. Low doses - but then, Chernobyl was no nuclear war aimed at doing maximum damage. Personally, I do not want to survive a nculear war. If it comes, i hope I get vaporized in the first blast. The world after it is not worth it to me. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

09-20-19, 05:13 AM	#15
STEED Lucky Jack Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Down Town UK Posts: 27,695 Downloads: 89 Uploads: 48	Fat chance of nuclear war. __________________ Dr Who rest in peace 1963-2017. To borrow Davros saying...I NAME YOU CHIBNALL THE DESTROYER OF DR WHO YOU KILLED IT!

09-19-19, 02:03 PM	#2
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Hmmm, might be a good idea to start looking for property in Peru.

09-19-19, 02:30 PM	#4
Julhelm Seasoned Skipper Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: The Icy North Posts: 693 Downloads: 189 Uploads: 0	No more more than 95 million killed, tops. Depending on the breaks.

09-19-19, 02:39 PM	#5
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,537 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	If the unthinkable would happen it doesn't matter where you move to. In case you want to survive the nuclear holocaust The fallout from all these nukes will sooner or later have spread all around the world. Markus

09-19-19, 03:42 PM	#6
Julhelm Seasoned Skipper Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: The Icy North Posts: 693 Downloads: 189 Uploads: 0	Unlikely. Modern warheads in the .3 to 1mt range simply do not loft the debris that high, so it will rain out over a few days.

09-19-19, 05:40 PM	#8
Julhelm Seasoned Skipper Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: The Icy North Posts: 693 Downloads: 189 Uploads: 0	Well, that was what the Soviets always planned. Advance all the way to the Atlantic coast behind a blanket of nuclear bombs.

09-19-19, 05:50 PM	#9
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,537 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	On the fun side of this discussion is that none of us can come back after a nuclear war and say You were right/wrong. so it's theory all the way Yes Russia, USA, Great Britain has their military doctrine on how to act in case of war and nuclear war. As someone said, can't remember who "You can have thousands of war plans or Doctrines who may end up being useless when the war start/begin" Markus