Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea

[Gerald]

A view of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain. A valley is deeply eroded along the fault. (U.S. Geological Survey).


An image provided by Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson shows the earthquake swarms of 2001, 2009 and 2016 in the Salton Sea. Scientists worry that earthquakes near the southern end of the San Andreas fault could trigger a large earthquake on California's longest fault. (Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson).

The San Andreas fault’s southernmost stretch has not ruptured since about 1680 — more than 330 years ago, scientists estimate. And a big earthquake happens on average in this area once every 150 or 200 years, so experts think the region is long overdue for a major quake.

The swarm actually increased the likelihood of a much more major quake in Southern California, at least temporarily.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, for the seven-day period following Tuesday, the chances of a magnitude-7 or greater earthquake being triggered on the southern San Andreas fault are as high as 1 in 100 and as low as 1 in 3,000. The chances diminish over time.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/l...t=oft12aH-1gp2

Yes, it's a large area that it is about, even if it is, and has been a relative way small earthquake,so it is hoped that the technology to be able to predict a major quake, are to evacuate densely populated areas in case.



Note: September 30 2016 7:15 AM

[Catfish]

Aktung will not be pleased

But a bunch of small earthquakes is always better then "the big one". It can be explained like two platforms being pressed against each other (or one heavy dense ocean floor being subduced under the 'swimming' lighter continental crust, to be exact), and building up pressure. At one point one of the opposing platforms gives in, or the pressure is being released in smaller movements gradually, thus preventing a sudden, big thrust.

However, even if we can measure a pressure build up and related quakes, an exact forecast is not yet possible..

[Mr Quatro]

It's way past time for one, a big one in California has been warned of for as far back as I can remember.
So they know one is coming, they are prepared for it, they will rebuild and have 20-30 years till the next big one to worry about.
Oklahoma or even New York could have the next big earthquake before California does.

They are on earthquake faults too

[Gerald]

We hope that the large, will be far into the future.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Aktung will not be pleased

Originally Posted by AKBBY9/23/2014

Actually the recent earthquake was a blessing in disguise...It's the only time I've ever heard "Oh my God" in the boudoir "And the earth shook" timing is everything !

<I always look on the bright side! This being a naval forum: Neptune is the god of the sea...and earthquakesso it's not too odd that the Salton Sea is where it's at, 300 miles to the south...